389
FXUS63 KDDC 040905
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected Monday afternoon
  and evening, mainly east of a WaKeeney to Ashland line.

- The greatest uncertainty regarding Monday`s severe weather
  event is timing of the onset of dangerous storms and how far
  west initial high-end severe storms will develop.

- Most of the NWS Dodge City area of responsibility will most
  likely be clear of severe weather risk by early evening Monday
  as storms move east deeper into central and south central
  Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread precipitation event -- the first good soaking rain over a
large portion of our forecast area in quite some time -- continued
in the pre-dawn hours across much of southwest into central and
south central KS. Some initial automated gauge reports were showing
three-quarters to a little over an inch of rain right where we
needed it most across quite a few of our counties along/west of U283
and along/south of U50. The rain will continue to pull away from our
region this morning leaving in its wake a cooler air mass and
remnant low cloud. The past few runs of the HRRR model have shown a
bit longer period broken-overcast stratus cloud across the mid
section of our forecast area (centered around DDC), keeping
temperatures from rising much above the mid/upper 50s this afternoon.
The latest official forecast calls for mid 60s for just about the
entire forecast area, but some of this may need to be lowered if the
clouds hang on longer like the latest runs of the HRRR suggest.

Going into tonight and early Sunday morning, we will watch for
another southern jet streak nosing into West Texas and western
Oklahoma, which will foster another round of precipitation clipping
our southeastern counties adjacent Oklahoma state line, which is
where highest POPs will be (20-30%) in both the Tonight and Sunday
12-hr periods. Low level winds will veer around from east to
southeast on Sunday as the much advertised Monday storm draws closer
to the Rockies, inducing lower MSLP across Colorado late in the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clearly, the focus of this time frame will be Monday`s impressive
storm and the likelihood of a volatile severe weather outbreak
across much of the Central Plains late in the day and Monday Night.
Not much has changed in the overall forecast meteorological setting
for Monday other than the fact that there still remains great
uncertainty in when initial dryline storms will develop (early vs.
mid vs. late afternoon) and how far west the dryline will be when
the first storms do develop. The ECMWF shows the dryline just east
of DDC at 21Z Monday with 3-h QPF in the 21-24Z beginning just east
of DDC. The high-resolution ECMWF deterministic run depicts multiple
county-scale streaking of QPF in a southwest to northeast manner in
the 3-h QPF field, which in classic spring severe weather patterns,
is the numerical weather prediction highly suggesting individual
severe local storm tracks (most likely supercells). Nearly all
models show a classic "sickle" shape hodograph in the 0-2km AGL
layer across a large swath of the warm, moist sector in Kansas into
northern Oklahoma where surface dewpoints will be in the 64 to 68F
range.

A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including high-end hail
storms and long-lived significant tornadoes, is appearing more and
more likely. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the areal
coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk to include over half of
the state of Kansas, including our eastern counties from Hays down
to Coldwater and points east. This latest outlook also includes a
large area of 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather --
defined by 75+ mph damaging wind gust, 2" or larger hail, and/or
significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). Any outdoor
interests Monday afternoon and evening should have a plan of action
in place in case storms threaten your activity(ies)/venues.

Once we get Monday`s storm out of the way, we will be entering a
fairly long break in severe weather risk, perhaps going well into
the following week of May 12th as cooler and drier air will
encompass much of the eastern half of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms at the onset of this TAF period will
continue through the first several hours before moving off to
the southeast. In the wake of precipitation, stratus clouds will
prevail through the morning with ceiling expected to be in the
MVFR category above 1000 feet. By mid-morning, stratus ceiling
will scatter out as high pressure builds south. Widespread VFR
flight category will then prevail from late morning/midday
through the remainder of the TAF period with north winds
gradually decreasing to around 10 knots by mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid