Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242357
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A cold stable springtime rain episode will be developing later this
evening, and extend into the overnight. Good agreement exists among
the short term models (RAP/HRRR HiResNMM/ARW and 12/4KM NAM) for
a narrow mesoscale rain band to develop across our western
counties after 00Z and morph eastward into a more broad region of
rain across the central Kansas counties. The overall signal
suggest higher rain fall amounts around a quarter inch or more in
the eastern counties, with much more variable, and lower amounts
farther southwest. Very cold and cloudy conditions should be left
in the wake of the rain shield that moves into Oklahoma by around
12Z or so. Lingering showers may be possible around Coldwater
Pratt and Medicine Lodge to start the day monday morning. The NAM,
and HiResARW/NMM develop a dusting of snow near Syracuse between
6 UTC and 9 z, more likely a mix if anything. Temperatures are
likely to fall into the low 30s, but with the clouds, it is not
likely a frost setup. Models are in favor of being well above (4
to 5 degrees) the hard freeze temperature criterion as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A secondary upper wave in the northwest flow will is likely to move
rapidly through on Thursday, however the system is more moisture
starved, and with less mid level forcing for precipitation.  An
upper thermal ridge is in place over the High Plains region for the
weekend before the ECMWF/GFS develops southerly surface
flow/dryline, pattern over western Kansas by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Widespread MVFR and periodic IFR conditions expected through the
morning ahead of an upper-level low. Areas of rain showers will
also develop this evening, from east to west across Southwest
Kansas, which will bring lowered visibilities. Expect the rain to
begin ~0-1Z at GCK and ~2-4Z at remaining terminals. Showers
activity will end at all terminals before sunrise. Flying
conditions will slowly improve late morning tomorrow as the upper
low moves east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  57  36  67 /  90  20   0  10
GCK  37  58  35  63 /  90  20   0  10
EHA  38  60  38  65 /  60  20   0  10
LBL  38  60  36  67 /  80  20   0  10
HYS  39  55  36  63 /  60  30   0  10
P28  44  58  38  69 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Reynolds



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