Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A cold stable springtime rain episode will be developing later this
evening, and extend into the overnight. Good agreement exists among
the short term models (RAP/HRRR HiResNMM/ARW and 12/4KM NAM) for
a narrow mesoscale rain band to develop across our western
counties after 00Z and morph eastward into a more broad region of
rain across the central Kansas counties. The overall signal
suggest higher rain fall amounts around a quarter inch or more in
the eastern counties, with much more variable, and lower amounts
farther southwest. Very cold and cloudy conditions should be left
in the wake of the rain shield that moves into Oklahoma by around
12Z or so. Lingering showers may be possible around Coldwater
Pratt and Medicine Lodge to start the day monday morning. The NAM,
and HiResARW/NMM develop a dusting of snow near Syracuse between
6 UTC and 9 z, more likely a mix if anything. Temperatures are
likely to fall into the low 30s, but with the clouds, it is not
likely a frost setup. Models are in favor of being well above (4
to 5 degrees) the hard freeze temperature criterion as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A secondary upper wave in the northwest flow will is likely to move
rapidly through on Thursday, however the system is more moisture
starved, and with less mid level forcing for precipitation.  An
upper thermal ridge is in place over the High Plains region for the
weekend before the ECMWF/GFS develops southerly surface
flow/dryline, pattern over western Kansas by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Light rain event was ongoing at the time of TAF issuance. Most
terminals will see rain ending by 09z, but MVFR ceiling will likey
hang around through 12-15z time frame. Thereafter, VFR will
prevail as the storm system pulls away. North-northwest winds of
around 15 knots will continue through the day Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  57  36  66 /  90  20   0  10
GCK  37  58  35  63 /  80  20   0  10
EHA  38  60  38  64 /  60  20   0   0
LBL  38  60  36  66 /  80  20   0   0
HYS  39  55  36  63 /  60  30   0  10
P28  44  58  38  70 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid



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