Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200938
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
438 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Thunderstorms to the south look to affect the southeast portion of
the area through at least this morning and maybe a little longer.
So kept slight chance to low chance pops in there to account for
this.

Morning clouds will give way to some late afternoon sun across
western Kansas. 850 mb temperatures indicate little change from
yesterday afternoon to this afternoon. Also winds will be from an
upslope direction. Given this will continue to favor highs mainly
in the 70 to 75 degree range. Upper 60s may be as warm as it gets
in north central Kansas given that cloud cover is expected to hold
on longer here.

Tonight increasing cloud cover and a slight increase in southerly
winds across western Kansas favors lows at or a few degrees above
the latest guidance. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

A warming trend can be expected early next week. 850 mb
temperature trends indicating temperatures should warm into the
80s by Monday. A few 90s are not out of the question by mid week.

An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over
Nevada/southern California through Tuesday and then begin to
weaken as it gets lifted northeast into the Northern Rockies mid
week. Several subtle waves embedded in the southwest flow is
forecast to move from the base of this upper low and cross the
Western High Plains through mid week will give low chances of
precipitation to the area.

Timing these individual waves is difficult. Instability should be
there. So ended up not changing from the blend much and blended
with my neighbors.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Northerly winds will fall back to around 10kts by 12Z Sunday as an
area of high pressure builds into western Kansas overnight. Model
soundings do indicate an area of stratus in the 1000 to 2000 ft AGL
level spreading into portions of western Kansas overnight but differ
on how far south it will move before beginning to get shunted
eastward. At this time will be a bit more pessimistic on the stratus
and favor low MVFR or IFR ceilings early Sunday morning at Dodge
City, Garden City, and Hays given the 05Z satellite loop and surface
observations. These low clouds will give way to clearing skies
between 15z and 18z Sunday. Winds will stay north northeast at 10kts
or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  52  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  72  56  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  65  48  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  55  83  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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