Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

An upper level low, currently over southeastern Colorado will
slide into southwestern Kansas this evening enhancing lift.
Towards the surface, an area of low pressure and associated
frontal boundary will move into far western Kansas this evening
then along the KS/OK border overnight. A few storms are expected
to form across far southwestern Kansas late this afternoon and
spread northeast this evening. A few of these storms may become
strong to severe before midnight with wind and hail being the main
concern. Continued showers are expected overnight as the upper
level feature oozes eastward with wrap around moisture across
western Kansas. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central Kansas overnight where around an inch of precipitation is
possible. Far southwestern Kansas will have the least chance of
precipitation and some places may not receive any at all. Light
showers look to continue tomorrow due to wrap around moisture from
the aforementioned system. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies
with some clearing across far western Kansas in the afternoon.
Strong northerly winds are also expected to continue tomorrow. As
for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 30s with
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow only look to
reach into the 40s with around 50 degrees across far southwestern

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A dry weather pattern returns through Friday as an upper level
ridge starts out over the western United States then into the
Plains by Friday. There looks to be a disturbance to move through
the Northern Plains Friday, but will be to far north to affect
western Kansas. Models then suggest a disturbance to move through
the area this weekend. Confidence on timing and location are still
low and will watch future model runs for a better pattern to
emerge. As for temperatures, highs will start out in the 50s
Tuesday with low 80s possible Friday. We then return into the 70s
Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

With the exception of DDC terminal where MVFR conditions continue,
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop late this afternoon, first across the LBL
area spreading northeast into the other terminals this evening.
These storms will bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds
will generally be from the southeast this afternoon into this
evening, shifting to a northerly direction by sunrise tomorrow.
Gusty winds are also expected through tonight.


DDC  36  45  28  58 /  90  50  10   0
GCK  36  46  26  58 /  70  40  10   0
EHA  36  51  27  60 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  37  49  26  60 /  60  20   0   0
HYS  36  42  27  55 / 100  80  30   0
P28  42  49  32  58 /  90  50  30   0


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.