Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201903
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Overview: A potent shortwave digging ashore the northern/central
California coast today/tonight and amplify into a closed low over
central/southern California during the day Monday. Downstream -
W-SW flow aloft will prevail over the Central Plains.

Today and Tonight: An amalgamation of small amplitude waves
(including MCVs spawned by a massive nocturnal MCS in the Southern
Plains) were noted over OK and eastern portions of KS this
afternoon - progressing northeast in southwest flow aloft. A
relatively cool/dry surface airmass will remain in place over the
region - in assoc/w high pressure (centered over the Dakotas)
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains. With a
cool/dry airmass in place and overwhelming subsidence on the
western periphery of the aforementioned waves tracking northeast
from OK into eastern KS, expect dry conditions to prevail.

Monday and Monday night: A surface trough will develop in the lee
of the Rockies on Monday as southwest flow aloft strengthens over
the Intermountain West, in advance of an upper level low
progressing inland toward southern Nevada. Low-level southerly
return flow will gradually strengthen during the day in western
TX, eastern NM, and southern CO - advecting modest low-level
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates - aiding in diurnal
destabilization and the development of scattered convection during
the late afternoon in northeast NM and southern CO. Isolated
convection could propagate downstream into extreme southwest KS
Monday evening, however, unfavorable diurnal timing and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment with eastern extent suggest
such activity will wane within a few hours of sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Long range guidance suggests that the upper low progressing ashore
CA today/tonight will stall over the Intermountain West and
gradually dissipate by mid-late week as an upper level ridge
strengthens over the Southern/Central Plains. With the above in
mind, expect a warming trend and a decreasing potential for
convection as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

MVFR ceilings will linger at the HYS terminal this afternoon -
though VFR conditions are expected to return by this evening.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Initially North winds at 10-15 knots will become light/
variable overnight. Winds will strengthen from the south during
the day Monday, reaching 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots by
late Mon afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  81  61 /  10   0  20  10
GCK  70  52  83  60 /  10   0  20  10
EHA  70  54  82  59 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  72  56  83  61 /  10   0  20  10
HYS  65  48  80  61 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  55  83  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT



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