Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
626 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Upper level shortwave will move in from the northwest later
tonight and pass through western Kansas in the overnight. This
feature combined with a surface low in far southeast Colorado and
a weak frontal boundary will be the focus of certain cloud cover
and warmer overnight lows. The uncertain part will be if there is
enough frontogentic lift and moisture to squeeze out some light
rain showers roughly south and west of a line from Johnson to
Liberal. Given the ongoing drought and the fact this system will
have little moisture to work best only a few sprinkles
or raindrops could fall in these areas.

Tuesday the shortwave passes and a 1029 mb high will move into
western Iowa. Winds through the day will be east to southeast so
afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler. Clouds should clear
through the morning leading to sunny skies and light winds for the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Dry conditions and fire risks look to highlight the long range
discussion with no notable reason to think the ongoing drought
pattern will be alleviated.

Wednesday will have a 1025 mb surface high located in western
Mississippi and a low pressure trough in Colorado which will bring
stronger southwest winds across the region. Relative humidity
values look to drop into the 15-20% range by the afternoon so near
red flag conditions could certainly develop by then.

Thursday looks to be even warmer as the 850 winds will stay
strong through Wednesday night and a 20C 850mb airmass will be
across much of southwest Kansas. We could certainly see our first
widespread 80 degree highs across the area. Fire danger will once
again be a concern with 10-15% relative humidity values and strong
south winds for areas mainly along the Arkansas river on south.

Friday should bring some slightly cooler temperatures as the area
of low pressure moves east and winds will generally be out of an
east to southeast direction through the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

All TAF locations will remain VFR throughout the entire period.
Light southeasterly winds will persist over the next 24 hours. A
minor shortwave trough will push through the area late tonight
after midnight lowering ceilings to 10kft for GCK and DDC after 06
and 07Z.HYS will only see upper level cloud ceilings as the
aforementioned shortwave will pass mostly to the southwest. LBL
will see a chance of precipitation with VCSH after 06Z and lower
ceilings down to 6kft. The shortwave will be through all locations
after 15 and 16Z with only a few lingering high clouds remaining
for the rest of the period. |


Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Wednesday and Thursday are looking increasingly likely that
significant fire danger will be present in parts of southwest
Kansas. For Wednesday relative humidity values are forecast to
fall into the 15-20% range for most areas along with breezy
southwest winds 20-35 mph with higher gusts. Thursday we could see
widespread highs in the 80s which will lead to relative humidity
values for areas along and west of Highway 283 to be in the 10-15%
range. Winds will be the strongest for areas along and south of
the Arkansas river. These winds will also be southwest 20-35 mph.


DDC  25  55  30  71 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  26  55  29  74 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  40  55  33  70 /  20  20  10   0
LBL  35  55  30  71 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  22  53  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  56  29  70 /   0   0   0   0




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