Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Updated Fire Weather Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure will continue to prevail over western Kansas with
surface ridging stretching across the central plains extending
from the northern Rockies. Light easterly flow will continue this
afternoon into the evening hours under a fairly light pressure
gradient across most of the CWA, minus for the western counties
20-25mph gusts are expected where a more southerly fetch is
located, also bringing in a dryer air as well. This will change
heading into the overnight hours and into Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens and is more southeasterly as a cold frontal
boundary will push closer across the four corner region. An upper
level low off the Californian coast will start to push east
supporting the aforementioned surface front as it makes its way
across the desert southwest. It will deepen with this movement due
to the upper level divergence ahead of the system along the long
wave trough pattern for the western half of the country. For the
rest of today, enjoy a pleasant afternoon with high temperatures
in the 60s with not as low of a relative humidity due to the more
moist, easterly flow. Over night, the winds will pick up gradually
as high clouds start to evade the region more prevalently as the
aforementioned upper level low continues its eastward path.

Friday morning will see a more mild start with low temperatures in
the upper 30s and around 40 due to increased cloud cover with mid
level moisture advecting in from the southwest ahead of the upper
level low. Winds will start gusting up to 25-30mph across the CWA
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the low pressure system
pushing in passing to the south by later in the afternoon.
Precipitation chances will increase for the western counties with
a steady, stratiform rain by early afternoon where low level
clouds start to drop into the area. This will progress east
throughout the afternoon and evening hours with models consistent
on rain to fall with totals expected to be around a quarter to
half inch for this first round of precipitation. With increased
clouds and precipitation chances, temperatures will only push into
the 50s for most of the area with low 60s in the eastern counties
not seeing these affects until later in the afternoon. More cold
rain is expected over Friday night and into Saturday with higher
amounts expected with the wrap around flow of the deformation zone
of the occlusion. The system is trending by all models to be a
relatively slow moving system allowing rain to fall upwards to an
inch or so for this time frame even with a lower amount expected
than previously thought.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The storm system we have been looking forward to for rain this
weekend will be approaching the high plains region by late Friday
as the lead vort lobe approaches. Unfortunately this system is
coming out in two pieces instead of one intense storm system. This
first system will be responsible for most of the shower activity
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Moisture will be one big
limiting factor since the last front plowed to the Yucatan
Peninsula and since low level trajectories are expected to be more
easterly out of the cool surface high to the east instead of from
the central Gulf. Rich low level moisture was currently confined
to deep south Texas and another front passing through Texas will
tend to push dry air even into southern Texas this afternoon.
This will only give a short time for moisture to return ahead of
the upper level storm system. We may not have any lightning at all
with this system given the marginal low level moisture and cool
lower levels.This will limit rainfall amounts; but widespread
quarter to half inch amounts are still expected, with a few
locations that experience the heavier showers receiving more. It
is too early to tell where the heaviest rain will be, but it`s
possible that the heavier amounts could be in far western Kansas
with the first vorticity lobe and then across south central Kansas
with the second system passing to the south of Kansas. Clouds and
showers will keep temperatures down in western Kansas Friday,
with warmer readings in central Kansas where the rain is expected
to hold off til evening.Temperatures Saturday will be held down
into the 40s to lower 50s by cloud cover and cool surface high
pressure building in from the north. A slow warming trend can be
expected by Sunday and Monday with highs reaching into the 60s.
The warming trend will be slowed due to a strong upper level
trough digging into the Midwest, with another area of cool surface
high pressure advancing into the plains by Tuesday. Another
warming trend can be expected in the wake of this system, with
highs warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the entire TAF period for all
locations with only a few strands of high cirrus and contrails
present in the upper levels. Increased upper level clouds will
push into the CWA over night with mid level clouds by 12 and 13Z
with broken ceilings expected ahead of the next system that will
begin to push into western Kansas at the end of this period. Rain
chances along with MVFR conditions are expected Friday afternoon
after this TAF period. Winds will remain light and easterly this
afternoon before increasing this evening for all locations after
01Z due to a tightening pressure gradient due to the
aforementioned upper level low supporting a low at the surface. By
12-13Z in the morning, winds will gust up to 25kts at GCK, LBL,
and DDC with 18kt gusts at HYS as the mid level clouds push into
the area. No other significant weather elements are forecasted
during this particular TAF period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Near red flag conditions are expected for the western counties of
the CWA this afternoon due to stronger south winds with gusts up
to 25-30mph and low relative humidity values down to 17-18
percent. Even though this is not the criteria needed for red
flag, these conditions are still critical due to the recent fires
and ongoing drought over an already dry environment. For Friday
and heading into the weekend, fire weather risk will drop to
limited conditions due to expected rain that will push through the
area with accumulations up to an inch. This may not sound like
much, but it will help alleviate some of the drought conditions
and thus, fire danger that has continued to persist.

Fire weather risk will increase, though for next week with
elevated conditions expected heading into the middle of next week
due to a strong and dry flow out of the southwest Monday and
Wednesday. Tuesday and Thursday it will be out of the northwest
behind a couple weak and dry frontal boundaries that will
propagate through the CWA at that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  39  59  41 /   0  10  60  70
GCK  67  40  55  40 /   0  10  70  70
EHA  69  39  52  40 /   0  10  70  70
LBL  69  40  57  41 /   0   0  70  70
HYS  62  38  60  41 /   0   0  40  80
P28  65  39  64  44 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Lowe



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