Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

...Updated Short and Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The weather pattern this week will feel more like summer than
mid/late May for southwest Kansas, being characterized by weak
flow aloft and above normal temperatures. A mid-level low
currently over northern California will slowly dig southeast
through Tuesday afternoon, when it begins to weaken and lift
northeast early Wednesday. This will provide southwest flow over
western Kansas through Friday. Shortwaves embedded in the weak
southwest flow, in addition to modest moisture and instability,
will offer thunderstorm/shower chances each day this week, with
low predictability due to the lack of forcing.

Today/tonight: lee cyclogenesis has developed in response to the
first embedded shortwave in the upper level southwest flow. This
will increase the pressure gradient, causing gusty
south/southeasterly winds at 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-35 through
the afternoon. Highs are on-track to reach the lower to mid-80s.
Tonight, convergence southeast of the low in eastern Colorado may
aid in showers potentially developing along the Kansas/Colorado
border. While instability is marginal, large-scale forcing is
lacking, causing uncertainty on IF storms develop and how far east
the storms will move into western Kansas. The 12Z ECMWF and NAM
keeps western Kansas dry, while the GFS is showing storm
development west of 283 beginning after 7pm. CAMs are showing
divergence in solutions. Therefore have kept pops tonight in the
15-25 percent range due to uncertainty. The good news for most:
Storms that do develop are not expected to be severe.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s,
with wind decreasing after dark to less than 10-15 mph through the
morning.

Tuesday, lee troughing continues in eastern Colorado, and
therefore expecting another gusty day with south/southeast wind
at 15-20 mph, and gusts to 30. The southeast wind will cause boundary
layer moisture to increase and mix through the day, also
increasing instability ahead of the next shortwave ejecting into
the High Plains. This will bring western Kansas a better chance
for storms on Tuesday afternoon/evening than on Monday. However,
with limited effective shear, storms should not grow upscale
Tuesday night. Therefore, thunderstorms on Tuesday should not be
severe.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018


The aforementioned storms on Tuesday should move out of the area
late Tuesday night. With the increased cloud cover Tuesday night,
low temperatures will only dip into the 60s.

Wednesday/Thursday, the mid-level ridge axis increase, as well as
mid-level divergence, and with very warm surface temperatures
(upper 80s/lower 90s) reaching convective temperature and
increased moisture with the persistent south/southeast flow,
thunderstorms continue to be possible each evening.

Friday, will be the warmest day of the week, but only by a few
degrees, with highs reaching into the lower to mid-90s. A cold
front moves through Friday night, though the airmass behind the
cold front won`t feel much cooler, as high temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday look to be similar. There is divergence in
storm chances Friday through Sunday between long-range models, so
have left pops as-is.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Low-level stratus from this morning has cleared out to VFR
conditions at all terminals except  at KGCK, where ceilings are
maintaining MVFR conditions. Ceilings will lift at KGCK over the
next hour, and VFR conditions will continue everywhere through
Tues morning. Developing lee cyclogenesis and increased pressure
gradient will cause the southerly wind to increase to 15-20
knots, gusting to 25-30 this afternoon. Wind will decrease after
1-2Z to less than 12 knots through the night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  87  64  88 /  10  20  10  20
GCK  59  86  62  87 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  58  84  60  87 /  20  30  10  20
LBL  62  87  62  87 /  10  30  20  20
HYS  61  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  89  65  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Reynolds



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