Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242012
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A cold stable springtime rain episode will be developing later this
evening, and extend into the overnight. Good agreement exists among
the snort term models (RAP/HRRR HiResNMM/ARW and 12/4KM NAM) for a
narrow mesoscale rain band to develop across our western counties
after 00Z and morph eastward into a more broad region of rain
across the central Kansas  counties. The overall signal suggest higher
rain fall amounts around a quarter inch or more in the eastern
counties, with much more variable, and lower amounts farther
southwest. Very cold and cloudy conditions should be left in the
wake of the rain shield that moves into Oklahoma by around 12Z or
so. Lingering showers may be possible around Coldwater Pratt and
Medicine Lodge to start the day monday morning. The NAM, and
HiResARW/NMM develop a dusting of snow near Syracuse between 6 UTC
and 9 z, more likely a mix if anything. Temperatures are likely to
fall into the low 30s, but with the clouds, it is not likely a
frost setup. Models are in favor of being well above (4 to 5
degrees) the hard freeze temperature criterion as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A secondary upper wave in the northwest flow will is likely to move
rapidly through on Thursday, however the system is more moisture
starved, and with less mid level forcing for precipitation.  An
upper thermal ridge is in place over the High Plains region for the
weekend before the ECMWF/GFS develops southerly surface
flow/dryline, pattern over western Kansas by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Terminals are now in a post frontal zone with a relatively narrow
band of IFR stratus currently moving through the area behind the
cold front. In general, ceilings should improve during the
afternoon, but likely again deteriorate later in the evening as a
east-west broken band of rain showers develop over the area  and
lingers overnight. Visibility may drop to 3 or 4SM as well during
the rain tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  57  38  67 /  90  20   0  20
GCK  37  58  36  65 /  90  20   0  10
EHA  38  60  38  67 /  60  20   0   0
LBL  39  60  37  68 /  80  20   0  10
HYS  39  55  37  63 /  60  30   0  10
P28  44  58  40  69 /  80  40  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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