Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was
an M4.2/2b flare (R1-Minor) at 22/2032 UTC from Region 3615 (S13E10,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Further coronagraph imagery is needed to
determine if there was a CME associated with the event. The region
remained the most complex on the visible disk and continued to grow in
area over the past 24 hours.

Additional activity included a C8.4 flare at 22/1358 UTC from Region
3614 (N17E03, Dso/beta). An associated CME was observed in subsequent
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning after 22/1436 UTC. The relatively narrow
CMEs trajectory was northward and not expected to contain an
Earth-directed component. Newly numbered Region 3620 (S10E74, Cro/beta)
remained simple and quiet as it rotated further on to the visible disk.

.Forecast...
Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for R3
(Strong), over the next three days due primarily to the flare potential
of Region 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater
than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux
are expected to remaining below alert threshold over the next three
days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated waning influences of a CME that left
the Sun on 17 Mar. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-10 nT.
The Bz component was mostly oriented northward this period. Solar wind
speeds varied between ~330-360 km/s.

.Forecast...
CME influences are expected to trend towards background levels over 23
Mar. On 24 Mar, an additional enhancement from a CIR ahead of a negative
polarity CH HSS is anticipated. Enhancements are expected to persist
through 25 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field decreased from active levels day to
quiet-unsettled after 22/0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet over 23 Mar. Active
conditions are likely on 24 Mar from anticipated CIR ahead of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on
25 Mar.


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