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000
FXXX12 KWNP 120031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5.4 flare at 11/1706 UTC
from a Region just beyond the E limb near S15. Associated with the flare
was a Type IV radio sweep and a CME off the SE limb at 11/1712 UTC. Due
to its location beyond the limb, no Earth-directed component is
expected. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3634 (N26E09,
Dsi/beta-gamma) and 3635 (N20E38, Cso/beta). New Region 3636 (S21E72,
Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered.

The CME from a filament eruption near N20E02 that began at 11/0600 UTC
was analyzed as a glancing-blow arrival before midday on 14 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 11-13 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 14 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed
ranging from 411-509 km/s. Total field ranged form 1-6 nT while the Bz
component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 12 Apr. Weak HSS
disturbances are likely on 13 Apr. By midday on 14 Apr, the
glancing-blow arrival of the 11 Apr CME is likely to cause further solar
wind enhancements.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 12 Apr. Quiet to unsettled
levels are likely on 13 Apr with CH HSS onset. Unsettled to active
levels are expected on 14 Apr with the combination of a weak HSS and the
arrival of the 11 Apr CME.