Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000 FXUS63 KDLH 251131 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Long duration "winter" storm continues today through Tuesday. No changes to winter weather warnings with this forecast. - Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 5 inches in northwest Wisconsin, 3 to 10 inches in northeast Minnesota. Total snowfall ranges of 6 to 15 inches remain likely. - A period of freezing rain still possible (20-40%) in northwest Wisconsin this morning. Freezing rain is also possible (30-50%) in portions of northeast Minnesota tonight and early Tuesday morning. Ice accumulation of up to around 2 tenths of an inch is forecast from the freezing rain. - The winter storm will depart Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Light snow showers may linger through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Challenging storm system will continue to bring wintry weather to the Northland through tomorrow evening. Biggest concerns this morning are related to the northward progression of a warm air aloft and how that will affect precipitation types, the potential for light freezing rain as that warm nose advances northward, and pockets of freezing drizzle hidden within the larger areas of snow this morning. The 08Z RAP suggests the 850 mb warm nose has pushed northward into Price County. KPBH still reported light snow as of 0930Z. It may take a few more hours for the warm layer to become deep enough to melt the snow completely. Meanwhile successive waves of 925-700 mb frontogenesis continue to advect northward. A shortwave trough and associated localized vort max propagated north-northeastward from northern Iowa around 04Z to Iron and Ashland counties per the GOES-East water vapor imagery as of 0930Z. There is a localized enhancement in snow rates on the western periphery of this feature which stretched from Lake Mille Lacs to near Cotton and Brimson as of 0930Z. The frontogenesis enhanced snow bands have been struggling to push north of a St. Cloud to Mora to Hayward line. There have been reports of freezing drizzle which correspond with local minima of radar reflectivity over the past few hours. Think that trend will continue through this morning. Forcing for ascent at this point seems to have a significant mesoscale component with the surface low still situated over southwest Kansas. As the warm nose progresses northward today over northwest Wisconsin, we expect a change to sleet or freezing rain and then over to all rain. Left headline timings alone for now. Winter Storm Warning for most of northwest Wisconsin ends at 1 PM. Strong and gusty winds will develop along the North Shore this afternoon into tonight, so left the Blizzard Warning unchanged also. Confidence in blizzard conditions developing has trended lower over the past 36 hours. By early evening there is a risk the snow will change to sleet or freezing rain, which will end the blizzard conditions if they develop. Warmer air aloft doesn`t progress as far west as earlier forecasts by tonight, reducing the risk of mixed precipitation from the Brainerd Lakes and Aitkin areas. Freezing rain and sleet mix chances remain from the I-35 corridor north to the Twin Ports and up the North Shore tonight. Ice accumulations of a tenth or two are possible with a 30-50% chance mix precip develops at all. The system will lift north-northeastward from the southern Plains into Wisconsin and northeast Ontario by 06Z Wednesday. Precipitation should change back to snow before tapering off Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Cold air advection and cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance of light snow showers and additional light accumulation in the picture through Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. Additional accumulation of an inch or two is possible. There remains another clipper system next weekend which will bring another shot of wintry weather to the Northland. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Poor flight conditions today with LIFR frequently occurring in snow and eventually fzra this afternoon for the eastern TAF sites. I do expect a wide range of conditions oscillating from VFR to LIFR and back with the banded nature of the precipitation with this large winter storm. I left the TAFs towards the lower end of flight cats and ignored the VFR as I believe that any VFR will be short-lived. There may be periodic fzdz between breaks in snow bands. Winds will be out of the east and gust to 25 to 30 knots giving blowing snow too. Accumulating snow expected at all TAF sites.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Onset of gales appears to be later than earlier forecast. Therefore we have adjusted the start time of the Gale Warnings for this afternoon except for the Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing areas where gales near the Twin Ports will likely begin by 7 AM. We also extended the Gale Warning for the North Shore until 1 AM Wednesday as there will likely be a period of gales after winds back northwesterly during that time allowing for enhanced downslope flow off the high terrain of the North Shore. Otherwise forecast remains on track with strong east and northeast winds today eventually backing northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Winds and waves will gradually subside as the strong low pressure system departs the region. Conditions will likely be hazardous to smaller vessels into mid- week at least. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018- 019-025-026-033>038. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ020-021. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ002>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-148. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146- 147-150. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146-147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Huyck

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