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101
FXUS63 KDLH 022030
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Continue to ride the rain chance rollercoaster with waves of
precipitation moving through today, Friday evening into Saturday,
and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures through the weekend and into
early next week.

- Some severe weather possible with the Monday-Tuesday chance of
precipitation.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Yet another round of rain is moving through the area this afternoon,
with areas of mostly stratiform rain showers across the Northland.
Behind the initial push of rain, lower clouds and light rain/drizzle
have been observed. Expect at least light rain to stick around
through the afternoon and early evening hours, with areas of
moderate rainfall mixing in a times. This will all slowly propagate
north, slowly clearly from south to north into Friday morning. As
this precipitation moves out, some fog could build overnight on both
land and lake.

Tomorrow, expecting a fairly dry and warm day for much of the
Northland. The one exception may be along portions of the
International Border, where some scattered light rain showers may
persist through early to mid afternoon and cloud cover will keep
temperatures in the 50s. Elsewhere, expecting temperatures in the
60s, possibly near 70 in NW WI. Winds will become gusty out of the
southwest tomorrow afternoon with efficient mixing up to around
850mb. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible, the strongest along the Iron
Range and into the MN Arrowhead. Into the later after noon
and evening, our next round of rain starts to creep in, along a
baroclinic zone and strong upper level jet. Deterministic guidance
continues to paint this as a SW to NE oriented band of rainfall that
will develop up to the northeast, and then push across eastward,
brining another 0.10-0.25" of rain for much of the area.

A brief moment of ridging and high pressure (remember what that
is?!) builds in Sunday, with sunshine and warm temperatures
expected. This will be one of the longer periods of no rainfall
that we`ve seen in the last 10 days. Clear skies continue into
Monday morning, but starts to fill back in through the day, as a
deep upper level trough swings across the Plains. Timing is a
little uncertain on the arrival of this system to our area, and
I would not be surprised to see the arrival time slow down as we
get closer. Regardless, into Tuesday, this system is expected
to spin up and deepen further, bringing a potent shot of
rainfall and the potential for some severe weather to the area,
and then additional rainfall in the occluded quadrant of the
storm into mid week. Ensemble mean QPF is around 075- 1" of
rain, but there are some members that suggest locally heavy
rainfall could be possible. Will have to keep an eye on not only
the severe threat, but the potential for some local flash
flooding, especially considering our newly moistened landscape.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A broad area of low pressure with two low pressure centers, one
over western North Dakota and another over eastern Iowa, will
bring light rain, reduced visibility, and lower ceilings to the
terminals this afternoon through Friday morning. While 1730Z
regional WSR-88D mosaic represents a precipitation-free area
over west-central Minnesota, surface observations indicate
drizzle and light precipitation with fog, mist, and reduced
visibility. Areas of heavier precipitation over northeast MN and
northwest WI produced pockets of MVFR visibility and a few IFR
ceilings. Think the trend toward lower flight categories will
overspread the terminals this afternoon and evening. Look for
LIFR conditions to develop at DLH, HIB, and HYR tonight. LLWS
will be a concern at BRD and INL overnight as a low-level jet
develops to the south and east of the Dakotas low as it moves
over northwest Minnesota into northwest Ontario. LLWS is
possible at HIB, although most guidance has that terminal
situated between two stronger axes of winds aloft. As the low
pressure systems push northeast of the region Friday morning,
expect flight categories to improve.
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.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
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Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Northeast winds continue to strengthen yet this afternoon and
evening, brining elevated wave heights to Western Lake Superior,
especially the head of the lake. Northeast winds should back off
overnight. Friday, expect winds to turn southwesterly and become
strong up to 25 knots through the day. Due to warmer temperatures on
land, expecting the strongest winds further up in the atmosphere to
not make it to the surface of the lake, but they may be sampled by
larger ships measuring wind further up.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>146.
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$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Levens