Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
000
FXUS63 KDMX 281733
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Active through the period with periodic precipitation chances
- Warmest day Friday (55 N TO 70 S), otherwise temperatures
varying around normal through the period
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
An active weather regime will continue through the period. Next
weather-maker will come from a deepening upper low in the
southwestern US. Energy will be ejecting from that low and
pushing into the midwest at the same time as a stronger wave drops
into the plains from a low in the northern stream. The
associated surface low and attendant warm front are forecast to
track across Iowa mainly Friday. With strong warm advection and
lift above the warm front, could see thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into Friday night especially in eastern portions of
the forecast area.
As we head into the weekend, the upper flow flattens into more
of a zonal flow pattern. This will result in seasonal
temperatures and a quiet day Saturday. Then Saturday night the
next surface low approaches from the west and marks the
beginning of an extended period of precipitation chances.
Current model solutions suggest the favored location for the warm
front is over northern Missouri. With the quick-changing nature
of this pattern, confidence in the timing and track remain low
for now. That said, it is likely that much of the forecast area
will see precipitation in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Few concerns yet this period. Winds will increase aft 12z Friday
with gusts slightly above 20kts north sites ALO,MCW. Otherwise
patchy bkn VFR conditions with mid level warm air advection
across the region. /rev
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DMD
AVIATION...REV