Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000 FXUS63 KDTX 240733 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 333 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Weak radar returns are attempting to work their way northward into lower Michigan early this morning, but are struggling to produce much in the way of precipitation at the moment with resident dry airmass. These showers are associated with a large upper low currently moving through the TN Valley. As this low slowly slides east towards the Central Appalachians, it will open up and begin to merge with a northern stream wave as it swings across the upper Great Lakes through mid-week. The resident dry airmass will eventually moisten up the mid and lower levels as moisture is advected into the region under southerly flow. Precipitable Water values increase to around an inch across much of the area by 12Z this morning. Height falls along with some mid level forcing will support increasing rain chances this morning and into tonight. This event will feature likely PoPs with low QPF as showers are expected to remain light and scattered in a way that any one location will also see dry conditions throughout the day. The mid/upper level shortwave trough will begin digging through the western Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow morning bringing greater height falls. However, the deeper moisture will also be pushed out of Michigan with decreasing Precipitable Water values and surface dewpoints by 06Z tonight while a surface cold front progresses south through Michigan as well. The front will help keep some rain chances in through the overnight hours with rain showers remaining light. The evolution of this trough looks like it will close off tomorrow over the central Great Lakes but keep a somewhat progressive track. This will likely lead to precipitation coming to an end by tomorrow morning. Recent Euro solution still wants hold precip into tomorrow afternoon, but is the outlier. Cold pool assoicated with this trough will move in by tomorrow afternoon and drop high temperatures into the lower 50s inland and mid to upper 40s towards the lakeshores of the Thumb. Mid/upper ridge and surface high pressure will build across the region tomorrow night into Thursday. Post frontal dry conditions will help scatter out clouds and allow for good radiational cooling, which will result in overnight temperatures tomorrow dropping towards freezing in the mid to lower 30s for much of southeast Michigan. On the plus side, sunny skies on Thursday will help high temperatures rebound back into the upper 50s and low 60s. Another trough digging through central Canada on Friday will send another cold front through Michigan on Friday and bring quick passing line of showers before another post frontal surface high arrives. Fairly calm weather for the weekend with cooler northwest flow mitigating a strong warm up. High temperatures look hold in the 50s.
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&& .MARINE...
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Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread northward across the central Great Lakes today and tonight. The moisture is streaming northward from the Tennessee Valley low pressure system and ahead of a weak cold front moving into the western Great Lakes. The front will sweep the rain eastward early Wednesday and be followed by moderate north wind into Wednesday evening. Light and variable wind is projected to turn north over all marine areas by sunrise and quickly increase to gusts around 25 knots Wednesday morning. Small craft advisories are likely for outer Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron due to both the wind and waves building in excess of 4 feet through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind and wave conditions then diminish overnight through Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. The next cold front remains on track to arrive Thursday night into Friday and is also projected to be on the weak side in terms of both rain and wind potential.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 1156 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 AVIATION... Moisture will gradually increase from the south overnight with occasional sprinkles overspreading the area as low pressure lifts through the Tennessee Valley. MVFR conditions will then develop on Tuesday with the continued increase in moisture. Showers will be more prevalent as well as this low lifts closer to the area and a northern stream shortwave adds to the overall upper support. May even see IFR conditions by afternoon/evening as decent deformation sets up over the area. For DTW...Sprinkles will through the area overnight with periods of light rain expected through Tuesday. MVFR cigs will be possible by Tuesday morning (possibly dropping to IFR Tuesday afternoon). DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings aob 5000 ft after 11z Tuesday. * High for rain as precipitation type.
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&& .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......BT AVIATION.....DG You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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