000
FXUS63 KDVN 091719
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
  morning.

- The next chance of rain returns Wednesday afternoon into
  Thursday night.

- Temperatures are above normal through the period with much
  warmer temperatures by the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

At 3 AM, a frontal boundary has crossed the Mississippi River into
northwest Illinois. Winds ahead of the boundary are from the
southwest with west winds behind the front. Wind speeds across
the area are generally 5 to 10 knots. Temperatures at 3 AM
ranged from 40 degrees at Clinton to 54 degrees at Fort Madison.

Today, a storm system to our north will continue to lift
northeastward into Ontario through tonight. The frontal
boundary is expected to push to the east of the CWA by 12 UTC
today as high pressure builds eastward into the area during the
afternoon. West to northwest winds will become gusty today with
gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH. High temperatures were dropped
slightly with highs ranging from 60 to 66 degrees across the
area.

High pressure will exit the area tonight with high clouds
increasing late. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower
to mid 40s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. will allow a
500 mb closed low and its attendant surface low currently in
New Mexico to lift northeastward toward the area during the day
on Wednesday. Models agree that the surface low will track well
to the southeast of the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. However, the GEFS, ECWMF ensemble and operational ECMWF
have tracked northwestward with latest runs which brings
chances for rain into the area south of a Fairfield to
Galesburg line Wednesday afternoon. This is bringing chances of
rain to the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
CAPE is low enough that chances of thunderstorms should stay to
the southeast of the area.


After this wave passes, a trough dropping southeastward out of
Canada digs into the area and brings another chance of rain and
possibly embedded thunderstorms to the area late Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning. This second trough then merges with the system
to our east and results in deeper troughing over the Great
Lakes and an intensifying surface low. It will also be windy on
Thursday with the potential for wind gusts up to 35 to 40 MPH.

As we go into Friday and the upcoming weekend, the system on
Thursday will eventually move off to the east, leading to mostly dry
conditions. There is a low chance for showers Saturday night and
Sunday, but the global models indicate large differences in the
timing of a mid-level shortwave to pass through the area, so
confidence is lower on the precipitation chances. It`s also
noteworthy that the temperatures could become quite warm by Sunday,
depending on how the system pans out. The NBM is suggesting high
temperatures warming well into the 70s and perhaps even reaching
80 degrees in a number of spots. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds today may gust upwards to 20 KTs at times,
becoming light and variable after 00z. Otherwise, no sig wx is
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/Schultz
AVIATION...Gunkel