Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
463 FNUS21 KWNS 041650 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of north-central New Mexico this afternoon/evening as forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level trough moves across the area. Dry low-level air and modest precipitable water values may result in narrow precipitation cores and the potential for lightning strikes outside areas receiving appreciable precipitation. However, confidence in this conditional scenario is too low to warrant an unconditional dry thunderstorm area ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be moving northeast through the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. In the Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave will pass by to the south. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains and push cooler air against the southern Rockies. ...Southwest... Areas of dry and breezy conditions are probable for parts of the region. Perhaps an area where winds will be enhanced is in the southwest New Mexico vicinity. There, modestly stronger mid-level winds will be present along with some surface pressure gradient enhancement near the westward-moving cold front. Though relatively confined, elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the afternoon. Wind of around 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$