791
ACUS02 KWNS 281701
SWODY2
SPC AC 281659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves
quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure
will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a
front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this
front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of
the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms
likely near the Sabine Valley.

Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts
associated with high-based convection over parts of MT.

...TX into LA...
An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this
will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging
winds will be possible with this system given the expected high
degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than
currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage
prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well
as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust
potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system
moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days
storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind
probabilities at this time.

Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will
form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled
out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any
residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms.

...Central and eastern MT...
Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent
shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT.
Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply
mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may
support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of
enhancing wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/28/2024

$$