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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162059
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat has come to an end as of 4 pm today.

- Wind advisory remains in effect through 7 pm with wind gusts
  up to 50 mph. Gusts relax a bit, but windy conditions
  continue this evening and through the overnight period.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday morning and
  afternoon. A few strong thunderstorms may be possible Thursday
  morning.

- Dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures are likely
  for Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As of 3 pm, the surface low is centered over northeastern
Nebraska, with the Pacific cold front/dryline through most of
the forecast area. As such, most of the region is cleared of
storms except for the last tier of counties from Schuyler south
into Randolph County in northeastern Missouri. Very strong
southwesterly winds have come behind the front/dryline, with
peak non thunderstorm (synoptic) wind gusts as high as 60 mph.
Additionally, much drier air has also come behind the dryline
and has yielded near red flag criteria relative humidity. Gusts
should begin to relax by around 7 pm, although windy conditions
should continue through tonight and even into tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow should be dry with westerly winds on the order of 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, especially over northeastern
Missouri. Afternoon highs should range from around 70 degrees
toward the Iowa border to as warm as around 80 degrees for
Interstate 70 and points south. Tomorrow night into Thursday
morning, a northern stream mid/upper trough should shift
southeast from Montana into the Midwest, sending a cold front
toward the area. This will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With decent instability and more than sufficient
deep layer shear in place, a few strong to severe storms will
be possible early Thursday morning, with large hail as the
primary threat. High temperatures for Thursday will be very
dependent on the timing of the front. As of now, forecast highs
over NW Missouri where the front will move through much earlier
in the day are only in the mid 50s, with highs as warm as 70
degrees toward the Ozark Plateau where the front will be slower
to move through.

Any lingering showers or storms should exit the region
to the east by Thursday evening. For Friday and into the
weekend, dry conditions and below normal temperatures are
forecast. Portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas
could receive a late season frost/freeze on Saturday
night/Sunday morning as low temperatures are projected to drop
into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures should return to near
seasonal normals by early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR with VCTS are the conditions currently dominating the
Kansas City terminals. However, the activity won`t be around for
long as the storms are moving quickly to the northeast. Once
the storms move out expect continued clear skies with strong
gusty winds prevailing from the south to southwest, slowly
turning to the west to northwest overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Cutter