000
FXUS63 KEAX 131712
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday into
  Tuesday; some potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ridge axis has shifted east and southerly winds have returned across
the area. Notable increase in H85 temps today (going from 10 to 16 C
in 12 hours), indicative of the warmup expected with high
temperatures well above normal in the lower to middle 80s. Southerly
winds will become breezy by mid to late morning, with some gusts in
excess of 20 kts. Should see an increase in modified Gulf moisture
progressively advect into the area, and this will help keep relative
humidity values in check (min RH in the 25-30 percent range mid-
afternoon). With the ongoing greenup and fire weather conditions
marginal for enhanced fire growth, should escape the need for
headlines as critical conditions appear unlikely. Still, with
the southerly gusts, any ignition in cured fuels could pose a
local problem. The warmup continues into Sunday and Monday, with
highs remaining in the 80s.

Attention turns to a closed low ejecting into the Southern/Central
Plains by Monday/Tuesday. Models continue to trend this system
slower, which is not uncommon with closed low type situations. And
to no surprise, there remains considerable uncertainty to the
details; specifically the track and timing of key features. It
appears that initial deep convection on Monday will be further west
and later in the evening, well west of our CWA. We may see WAA type
elevated convection overspread portions of the area late Monday, but
this activity is unlikely to be rooted near the surface. So as many
times is the case, the variables lay with how much morning
convection will exist as what evolved to the west overnight that
moves across the CWA, and subsequently how aggressively can our
area clear in the wake of said activity. That potential narrow
zone of instability in between the exiting precipitation and
Pacific cold front will be the area to watch on Tuesday, in
addition to an area closest to the nearly-stacked low for an
arc of convection residing in an area rich in vorticity. The
takeaway is that an increasing probability of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected in the late Monday- Tuesday
period, some of which may be strong if sufficient instability is
present.

Thereafter, temperatures cool and trend closer to normal levels by
late week into next weekend. An upper trough skirting along the
Canada/US border and its associated ascent and mid-level
frontogenetical forcing may provide another shot at rainfall on
Thursday, but again, the details this far out remain murky at best.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Winds will
increase this afternoon from the south-southwest with gusts
around 25kts. These gusts may linger into the overnight hours
before diminishing late tonight/early tomorrow morning as a weak
front and surface low encroach upon eastern KS and western MO.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB