Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --987 FXUS66 KEKA 131327 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 421 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...After the passage of a trough, temperatures will begin trending higher today and then through late in the week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds back in. Temperatures along the coast will continue to be suppressed by persistent stratus through today. Strengthening northerly winds will create breezy conditions this week. && .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --As the trough moves out of the region, high pressure will build back in the Northeast Pacific affecting Northwest California. Today, offshore flow will begin to develop. It is uncertain how quickly this will clear out the coastal clouds this morning, but the coast will see clearing today. Also, northerly winds will begin increasing this afternoon. The exposed coastal spots will see some gusts from 20 to 30 mph in the afternoons this week, with stronger gusts in coastal Del Norte. As the ridge strengthens Tuesday, a weak upper low will move into Southern California. Similarly as was seen over the last several days, the combination of features will create above normal temperatures, including warm advection to the coast from the offshore winds. Inland temperatures in the valleys do look to be warmer than what was recently observed, with widespread low to mid 90s. A few areas in the warmer valleys are expected to see a moderate heat risk. Coastal temperatures into the mid to upper 60s will be likely for the middle of the week. Breezy north winds will continue through the week, along with the potential for offshore flow helping to keep the coast clearer through the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...Low coastal stratus continues this morning, with ongoing LIFR to IFR conditions for coastal terminals. Stratus should recede toward the coast this morning, but may be stubborn for much of the immediate coast today. Offshore winds are forecast to develop above Del Norte, along with strong coastal northerlies, which may disrupt the marine layer and stratus layer at KCEC this afternoon. There is potential for clouds advect from the south into KCEC once again late tonight, however current guidance is split on this potential. Stratus is expected to be more stubborn for areas further to the south, with only brief scattering possible at KACV...if it occurs at all. Low stratus is forecast once again along the Humboldt coast as a small reversal develops overnight. KUKI should remain VFR through the TAF period. && .MARINE...Northerlies continue for the foreseeable future, and are forecast to strengthen to Gale Force in the outer waters by this afternoon. The surface high offshore is forecast to drift northward on Tuesday, strengthening the pressure gradient off of Cape Blanco and weakening it near Cape Mendocino. This is expected to enhance northerlies downwind of Blanco in the Northern outers, particularly the NW corner of the zone. Meanwhile, winds potentially drop below Gale Force in the southern outers by Tuesday morning, with a southerly reversal possible in the southern inners. This MSLP pattern is forecast to persist through much of the upcoming week, with Gale to near-Gale persisting in the northern outers into next weekend. A few small NW and S swells move through the waters over the next week, however seas remain primarily locally generated, dominated by short-period northerlies from the wind core in the northern outers. Short period seas look to hit their maximum shortly after the winds peak Tuesday afternoon...with hazardous seas possibly propagating into the Northern Inners Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-475. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png