Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
762 FXUS64 KEPZ 130426 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1026 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1025 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 - Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal Sunday, with the lowlands near the 100 degree mark. Temperatures will cool throughout next week, closer to normal. - Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase next week with the main focus out west early on and shifting areawide by midweek. - Deep moisture will move in the last half of next week and with daily slow moving thunderstorm chances, some areas could see flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Upper level high center (250mb) remains over northern Mexico, while the mid level high center continues drifting east over Texas. Recycled sub-tropical moisture persists over the CWA. Convection this afternoon/evening was extremely limited due to a lack of upper forcing and somewhat lower low level (dewpoints in the 40s) moisture. Expect Sunday to begin a transition to an extended very moist sub-tropical airmass. By Sunday the mid/upper highs are both drifting east over east Texas/lower Mississippi Valley. Dewpoints bump back up mostly into the 50s, while PWs increase back to around .9 inches north to 1.2 inches south. Thus we should see a tick up in thunderstorms, with a more typical pattern of scattered early afternoon mountain storms, and isolated late afternoon/evening storms over the lowlands. Monday and Tuesday...the upper high moves over the southern Appalachians, continuing the deep southerly flow over the CWA. PWs increase to 1.2 to 1.4 inches and dewpoints remain well into the 50s. Thunderstorm coverage will increase all areas, with lower risk of flash flooding. Wednesday into Saturday...the upper high begins retracing it`s path back west, over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday and over southern Texas Friday. PWs increase to 1.3 to 1.5 inches through Saturday. Dewpoints remain in the 50s to lower 60s. Expect ever increasing coverage of thunderstorms, with flash flood risk rising to moderate levels. The models, especially the GFS, continue to show weak disturbances moving up in the southerly flow. By Thursday night one of these disturbances opens up into a broad, but weak trough across southern Arizona and New Mexico. By Friday this trough phases in with a Polar Jet trough sweeping across the central Rockies. Thus plenty of moisture will remain in a stretched out deformation zone extending east-west across central New Mexico and southern Arizona. PWs continue as high as 1.5 inches both Friday/Saturday, so good storm coverage with a flash flood risk should continue. Sunday and beyond...the Polar Jet is able to drop southward over New Mexico, pushing the deformation zone southward and ushering drier air into the area. Thus storm coverage should dwindle to isolated with flood risk mostly done. Looking at the GFS-360 and the CFS long range, this may usher in the end of the monsoon season by the early 20s of September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Generally VFR conditions with FEW100 SCT-BKN250. Broad scale outflow wind gusts of 15-25 knots across Hidalgo, Luna, Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties until around 10Z. Expect an slight increase in thunderstorms Sunday, with scattered BKN-OVC060 -TSRA developing over mountains after 18Z and then spreading down to the lowlands after 21Z. Gusty winds of 35-45 knots possible near some storms. Note: all TAF sites could see a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon, but confidence too low to include at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 No fire danger over the upcoming week as moisture gradually increases. There will be daily storm chances, initially focused out west but shifting further east as we get into Mon/Tue onward. Heavy rain will be a threat, especially next week as many areas will receive daily rainfall. Temperatures will start out above normal but start to drop to near or even below normal by the end of next week. Vent rates the next couple of days will be fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 100 73 97 / 0 10 30 20 Sierra Blanca 67 97 68 94 / 0 10 20 10 Las Cruces 69 99 68 95 / 0 10 20 30 Alamogordo 71 99 71 96 / 0 10 20 20 Cloudcroft 54 77 53 74 / 0 30 20 40 Truth or Consequences 71 97 69 93 / 10 10 30 60 Silver City 63 90 63 87 / 10 20 30 60 Deming 68 99 68 96 / 0 10 20 40 Lordsburg 69 94 69 92 / 0 30 30 50 West El Paso Metro 75 100 75 97 / 0 10 30 20 Dell City 70 101 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 74 104 75 102 / 0 10 30 10 Loma Linda 68 93 68 91 / 0 10 30 10 Fabens 72 101 72 99 / 0 10 30 10 Santa Teresa 71 98 71 96 / 0 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 75 100 73 97 / 0 10 30 30 Jornada Range 70 98 69 95 / 0 10 20 40 Hatch 71 99 70 98 / 10 0 20 40 Columbus 73 99 72 96 / 0 10 30 40 Orogrande 69 98 69 94 / 0 10 30 20 Mayhill 58 90 58 87 / 0 30 20 50 Mescalero 57 89 57 86 / 0 30 20 30 Timberon 57 87 55 84 / 0 10 20 30 Winston 59 88 59 85 / 20 30 20 80 Hillsboro 69 96 68 92 / 10 10 20 50 Spaceport 68 98 68 95 / 10 0 20 40 Lake Roberts 54 89 56 86 / 10 10 30 60 Hurley 64 92 64 89 / 10 10 30 50 Cliff 59 96 63 93 / 10 20 30 50 Mule Creek 55 91 58 88 / 10 20 30 50 Faywood 66 92 66 89 / 10 10 30 40 Animas 69 95 68 92 / 10 50 40 70 Hachita 68 95 68 92 / 0 30 30 60 Antelope Wells 67 94 67 92 / 10 40 40 70 Cloverdale 64 88 64 86 / 10 40 40 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner