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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210546
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1146 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Dry west flow aloft will dominate the weather for much of the new
week ahead. Temperatures will remain well above normal, especially
mid-week. Afternoon breezes will pop up, but for this time of the
year, winds will remain tame. Our next weather of note appears to
be next Saturday and Sunday, when a Pacific storm system will
bring in strong winds and a chance of mountain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the most part, a quiet week ahead as zonal flow holds court
through about Wednesday. In the short term, dry-line moved about
as far west as the Cont Divide, but is already mixing out back to
Deming. HRRR shows this mixing/drifting east will make it to
western Sierra and Dona Ana Counties this evening before
proceeding back west to around the Arizona line late tonight.
Moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s/mid 40s) will be enough to
form CU/TCU over the mountains through early this evening, but
little else. Strong low level east flow pushed stratus/fog up into
east slopes of our terrain along the eastern CWA. Expect this to
continue overnight before dissipating Sunday. Aloft short wave is
just about to exit the eastern CWA. Otherwise aforementioned zonal
flow pretty clean through Wednesday. Previous model runs did show
jet streak/short wave in sub-tropical jet moving east, just south
of the CWA and possibly a risk of a shower for Hudspeth Co Sunday
night. Latest models now show this feature a bit further south,
more of a threat to the Big Bend than our southeastern CWA.
Temperatures will remain well above normal. Near record highs
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

Late week has the potential for some impactful weather. Merged
Pacific low into the sub-tropical jet will move to Arizona
Thursday morning and across northern New Mexico Thursday afternoon
for a windy afternoon. Winds look to be sub advisory at this time.
A second Pacific storm system drops in over the Great Basin
Saturday with attendant increase in afternoon winds. Latest model
suite has trended down slightly for Saturday winds, but could
still be looking at advisory criteria winds. Upper low likely too
far north for even most mountain showers, but the Gila/Black Range
could still see a stray shower.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Skies start generally clear,
but another westward push of low level Gulf moisture overnight
will allow for low cloud formation across areas mainly east of the
Rio Grande valley. There will be low, east-slope hugging, stratus
along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns, and other N-S
oriented ranges. Thus some areas of BKN-OVC010 with low cigs and
patchy 3SM BR, with mountain obscurations. Otherwise SKC to FEW
050-070. Surface winds generally from the east/southeast 10-15
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Not much fire weather concerns early part of forecast with dry
weather and just breezy afternoons through Wednesday. Winds start
ramping up Thursday into the weekend and drive humidity down.
Thursday will see a windy afternoon and then Saturday will be
very windy in the afternoon. So we are looking at near-critical to
Red Flag criteria days, mainly Thursday and Saturday.

Min RH: Lowlands 18-30% Sunday and Monday decreasing to 8-13%
Tuesday through the rest of the week. Mountains 25-40% Sunday and
Monday decreasing to 10-20% Tuesday through the rest of the week.
Vent rates fair-good Sunday and Monday improving to excellent
Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  50  77  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            43  67  43  76 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               47  78  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               43  75  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               34  54  32  58 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    48  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   46  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                46  79  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       49  75  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                41  68  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             44  76  45  84 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               43  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   46  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             45  75  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           49  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            43  76  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  79  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 47  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                44  72  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  35  60  34  72 /  10   0   0  10
Mescalero                37  65  36  69 /  20   0   0  10
Timberon                 34  62  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  42  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  76  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                43  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  74  40  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   42  74  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    36  82  38  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               33  78  35  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  80  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  45  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           46  79  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson