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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161721
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1121 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We will have cooler and calmer weather today as high temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday`s highs. Our warm
dry weather will continue through the end of the week. Our winds
will be occasionally breezy in the afternoon, but no real strong
winds expected this week. We will see a slight chance for
thunderstorms next weekend, mainly east of El Paso and in the
Sacramento Mountains. High temperatures next weekend, will run
near seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper level storm system that brought us the wind and dust on
Monday has moved off to our east and a quieter weather pattern has
settled across the region. Yesterday`s system has swept in some
cooler air, so our high temperatures today will be 5 to 7 degrees
cooler than we saw on Monday. For today aloft, we will have a
zonal (west to east) flow pattern which will keep us dry with
mostly clear skies. A weak upper level short wave will move across
New Mexico on Wednesday. This system has little dynamics and next
to no moisture to work with, so the only result of the trough
sliding by will be some breezy afternoon winds and our high
temperatures jumping a little above average. For Thursday and
Friday, we will see a continuation of the zonal flow aloft, which
will keep our high temperatures above average and give us breezy
afternoon winds.

For next weekend, we will see an upper level trough approach the
region from the west, while at the same time moisture from the
east will try and push into the region. While Saturday is only
showing a 20 to 30% chance that the 40 degree dewpoint line will
push into the Rio Grande Valley, that percentage rises to 40 to
50% on Sunday. For now I have limited the rain and thunderstorms
chances for this weekend mainly to locations east of El Paso and
in the Sacramento Mountains. But we will need to watch how
subsequent models handle this dry line intrusion over the next
couple of days. If the deeper moisture can push further to the
west we will have to spread our thunderstorm chances further west
as well. For the start of next week, things look dry and continued
warm with high temperatures above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC-FEW250.
Winds remain light (4-8 knots) and mostly VRB, becoming 8-12 knots
with gusts to 18-20 knots out of the WSW by 19-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We will see quieter fire weather conditions this week. Min RH`s
today through Friday will continue to be very dry with min RH`s in
the single digits in the lowlands and near 10% in area mountains.
Nightly RH recoveries will be poor with lowland values of 10 to
20% and mountain values of 20 to 30%. Ours this week will be a
little breezy each afternoon (it is April after all), but the
winds will stay below critical levels. Vent rates the next couple
of days will range from very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            75  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               81  49  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               76  46  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  36  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    78  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              71  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   78  44  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                76  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       78  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                80  44  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             81  50  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   80  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             77  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           78  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            77  44  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    80  45  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 78  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                76  46  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  68  41  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  72  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                78  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                77  44  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             72  38  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   74  41  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    77  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               73  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  73  45  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   76  45  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  77  45  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           78  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               73  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers