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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190546
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1146 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Warm temperatures and light afternoon breezes can be expected each
day. The Borderland remains dry but will have a chance for some
isolated thunderstorms in far east portions of the CWA and the
Sacramento Mtns. Otherwise, quiet conditions can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fairly quiet weather will continue for the next week ahead with
warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Each afternoon will
feature light breeziness that calms in the evening and overnight
hours. A shortwave will pass by on Saturday afternoon, meanwhile a
dryline that is expected to reach as far west as El Paso will
begin retreating back eastward that afternoon. Low instability
will hinder thunderstorms, but there is decent 0-6km shear
(40-55KT). The dryline, shortwave, and orographics will act as the lifting
mechanism. In general, isolated thunderstorms are may occur with
a few lightning strikes possible that afternoon. Otherwise, the
area will largely stay dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Band of
high clouds mainly FL250 and above leading to BKN-OVC skies
overnight. High clouds clearing Friday afternoon. Moisture boundary
intrusion at KELP around sunrise, shifting winds to the east with
minimal impacts to aviation. Surface winds generally AOB 8 knots
overnight, with 190-230 at 08-14 knots prevailing tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Persistent dry weather will continue for much of the area the next
7 days leading to very low min RH`s. Single digit min RH`s
expected Friday and Saturday except for eastern Hudspeth and Otero
counties where values reach above critical thresholds. Moisture
creeps in Saturday allowing for isolated thunderstorms over the
Sacramento Mtns and eastern Otero county. There is a chance for
dry thunderstorms that afternoon. Moisture spreads westward
Sunday, but critical values return once again Monday and Tuesday
for much of the area.

Wind speeds will remain fairly tame with low end afternoon breeziness
the next 7 days or so and will mostly be southerly/southwesterly.
Elevated fire weather conditions possible tomorrow afternoon for
the highest terrain of southern NM but looks to be isolated.
Wednesday may also feature elevated fire weather conditions that
afternoon.

Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent tomorrow through
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  91  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  81  53  79 /   0  20  20  10
Las Cruces               56  91  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  87  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               42  63  42  55 /   0  10  10  20
Truth or Consequences    55  87  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  79  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  89  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  88  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                47  82  50  77 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             52  90  53  88 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               52  82  52  77 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   54  90  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             54  87  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  88  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            54  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  89  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  85  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  43  76  45  62 /   0  10  10  30
Mescalero                47  74  46  65 /   0   0  10  30
Timberon                 42  73  43  65 /   0   0  10  20
Winston                  50  80  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  85  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                52  86  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  79  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   48  83  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    52  85  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  80  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  82  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  87  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  87  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  80  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice