-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
834
FXUS64 KEPZ 061136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected through the
middle of the week, resulting in high fire danger. Winds become
lighter late in the week as we stay mainly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

The mid-level trough is pushing through El Paso early this AM,
creating a bump in the winds which should settle down shortly.
Behind it, winds have shifted westerly and will remain that way
through the day. Generally 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph
are expected today on the backside of the trough, a bit stronger
in higher elevations and east slopes. With the westerly wind
direction, blowing dust isn`t a major concern for this afternoon,
but far west TX, including El Paso, is most likely to see patchy
blowing dust from the northern Chihuahuan sources. Tuesday looks
quite similar with strong zonal flow overhead and temps a touch
warmer. Another breezy day is expected for Wednesday as a chunk of
the upper low meanders into the Northern Plains from the Rockies.
Dry, breezy, and warm conditions are forecast through Wednesday
with not much discernible change from day to day.

Most of the energy from the main low retrogrades into the Great
Basin based on the GEFS mean courtesy of a Rex block over SW
Canada. We will lose some of the strong zonal flow as a result on
Thursday, allowing our winds to lighten up a bit. A weak backdoor
front rides down the high plains on Thursday, providing our area
with a modest uptick in moisture for Friday and flipping our winds
to easterly. Dew points only reach into the 30s with this shallow
airmass mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley, so rain chances are
pretty limited into Saturday. The aforementioned upper low over
the Great Basin gets flattened and weakened by the Rex block
before it sags southeastward into our area on Saturday as a weak
shortwave. Most of its moisture is gone by the time it arrives,
so only increased cloud cover can be expected. Slight t-storm
chances remain in the grids for Saturday in the Sacs as the
shortwave passes.

Another feature to watch is a second backdoor front next Sunday
associated with a large upper low in the Great Lakes region. Other
than a modest increase in surface moisture and breezy east winds,
impacts will be negligible. Winds subside from Thursday onward to
generally 10 to 20 mph as temperatures remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy to windy conditions are expected today behind an upper
trough. Other than KELP which will have ongoing gusty winds due to
downslope flow off the Franklins, winds AOB 10kts expected early
this AM. Winds increase in the mid-late morning as the nocturnal
inversion breaks, mixing down 30kt flow from aloft during the day.
West winds near 20kts sustained and gusts to 30kts expected before
winds subside after sunset. Blowing dust may reduce visibility,
most likely at KELP later this afternoon down to 5 SM. The other
TAF sites should remain in VFR. Mainly SKC expected outside of
FEW250.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Fire weather concerns will be moderate to high into midweek. More
widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected for Monday as
winds shift westerly behind the Pacific front and humidities rise
slightly. RFTIs are forecast to be 3-6 on Monday (near critical to
critical). Red Flag warnings remain in effect for today for all
zones. Tuesday is looking like the highest fire danger day of
this stretch (RFTI 5-8) with lower RHs than Monday and low-end
windy conditions again. The Fire Weather Watches that were in
effect for Tuesday have been upgraded earlier this morning.

There has been a significant change in the fire forecast for
Wednesday since this time yesterday with another very breezy day
(20-ft winds of 20-25 mph) expected, slightly lower than Tuesday
but still very dry. RFTIs hold in the 4-6 range (near critical to
critical) on Wednesday, so confidence is high enough to issue Fire
Weather Watches across the area. For the rest of the week, winds
stay on the breezy side (20-ft winds around 15 mph) as moisture
levels creep up a bit, lowering the threat of fire weather.
Elevated fire danger is still expected after Wednesday, especially
west of the Rio Grande. ERCs will continue to rise as
temperatures remain above normal and dry westerly winds persist.
Fuels in the Gila Region are on the wetter side (mostly 50-70th
percentile), otherwise ERCs are above the 70th percentile.

Min RHs range from 5-12% through Thursday. Vent rates will be
excellent through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  58  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            81  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               84  50  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               82  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               58  37  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    82  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              70  42  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   82  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                78  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       82  54  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                84  48  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             88  52  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               76  50  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   85  53  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  48  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            81  46  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    83  45  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 82  50  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                80  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  41  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                69  40  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 67  40  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  73  40  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                78  45  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                82  43  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             72  39  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   75  40  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    77  42  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               72  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  74  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   80  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  80  46  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           81  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               76  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson