Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 130918
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
318 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Upper-level ridging will shift east today, allowing for deep
southwesterly flow across the Borderland. That means a mix of
sunshine and passing high clouds. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer than normal. The airmass will be quite dry. Winds will be
breezy in the afternoon. We repeat these conditions Sunday, with
winds trending toward mildly windy. Monday is a "watch out" day
with strong to very strong winds, blowing dust, and critical to
extreme fire danger as the next Pacific storm passes. For the rest
of the work week, we will continue with seasonably warm
conditions, with very dry air in place, and afternoon breezy to
windy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Today we see the upper ridge shift east as the next Pacific low
pressure system begins to nudge toward the west coast. For our
region this will place us under a deep southwest flow regime,
which will persist through Monday. For the weekend we will see
plenty of sunshine, with some passing high clouds. Temperatures
will average about five degrees warmer than the daily averages,
but short of daily records. The airmass in general, but especially
in the boundary layer, will be exceptionally dry. We will see deep
mixing and weak surface troughing lead to breezy and marginally
windy afternoons. Overall, the postcard conditions for what many
think of as "typical Spring season conditions" for the SW. Nothing
really critical, but conditions priming ahead of Monday`s arrival
of the system mentions above.
Early Monday that Pacific low/trough tracks over SCAL, across LVS,
and begins to life over the Four Corners region. This trajectory
keeps the minimal moisture of the storm well north of our region,
so it will pass dry for us. However, this positioning does place
the system`s jet aloft directly overhead during the afternoon
hours on Monday. We also see a nice and tight surface pressure
gradient, due to lee cyclogenesis over E CO, and high pressure
pushing in from AZ with a frontal boundary inbound from the west.
Thus we will see strong winds develop by late morning, and persist
into the mid evening hours. Looking at ensembles, the GEFS resolves,
as typical, the strongest winds, when compared to the Euro and
Canadian ensembles. The Canadian is the lowest, but the Euro has
been trending stronger, as it`s deterministic solution is
beginning to come into phase (spatially and temporally) with the
GFS. Looking at clusters, the GFS contributes most to the
strongest wind/gusts output, with the Euro contributing most to
the second strongest wind/gust output. Looking at wind/gust
magnitudes and probabilities with DESI and WSUP for the 75th
percentiles...max sustained wind speeds look to easily fall within
the 30-35+ kt range for nearly all our area. Gust speeds look to
hit High Wind Warning for the mountains with very high
probability, and our lowlands with moderate probabilities. Thus
the High Wind Watch looks good for Monday afternoon. Of course,
with the lack of rain, warm temperatures, deep mixing and surface
lofting, and a favorable SW trajectory across source regions to
our south and southwest, we are expecting a pretty widespread
major impact from blowing dust. In addition fire weather concerns
will rise to critical and extreme.
Behind the storm system, flow starts turning more westerly with
temperatures remaining near or slightly above average. Overnight
lows will be cool out west with fairly dry atmosphere and winds
dropping off at night. Winds will be low end breezy through at least
mid week with little impact expected. There is some fairly large
differences in models going into Friday when the GFS is bringing a
fairly strong back door cold front through, but the operational is
an extreme outlier compared to it`s ensembles. The EC now shows some
weak ridging and the front not making it anywhere near the CWA. Will
leave NBM temps which are close to average and see how things go
with models trends.
Monday`s storm is progressive, and exits the Rockies, heading east
into the Central Plains early Tuesday. We will be a few degree
cooler behind the front, but with temperatures near seasonal
averages. For the rest of the work week, the western U.S. will be
under a low amplitude westerly flow pattern which will keep our
weather fairly persistent, day to day. This will mean continue dry
conditions, temperatures steady and slightly warmer than normal.
Afternoons breezy, and occasionally windy. We will be watching
next Friday, as the GFS shows a backdoor front pushing in from the
plains. It looks to bring some moisture with it, but it looks
minimal and shallow, and with no upper level dynamics to work
with.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds will be generally light (AOB 10
kts) and from the west through 16z. The winds will become breezy (10
to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts) while out of the southwest
between 17 and 01Z Sunday. The winds will subside thereafter. There
will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
This weekend`s weather will provide the typical setup for a
critical fire weather day on Monday. We have been dry and warm
under high pressure the past few days, but today that high
pressure ridge shifts east, and we come under deep southwest flow
ahead of a slow-approaching Pacific trough. The upper high
started the warming and drying leading up to today. This weekend
will accelerate the drying of the atmosphere and fuels with
increasing SW winds, and lower RH. Fuels will trend sharply drier
this weekend as we see poor overnight recoveries, and low-teen to
single- digit RH for extended periods of the day. Afternoon winds
will be breezy today, and occasionally marginally windy Sunday.
Monday is the kicker as the Pacific low pressure system moves
across the Four Corners. It passes far too north to provide our
area any moisture or precipitation, so it will pass dry. However
it will pass with perfect timing and positioning to maximize our
wind potential for Monday afternoon. We will mix down from a jet
aloft, and have tight surface pressure gradients, which will both
allow for strong to very strong winds for the entire region. SW
winds of 30-40 mph plus, and gusts of 50-70 mph are expected,
along with RH ranging from 7-9% eastern and central lowlands to
10-15% western lowland and area mountains. We already have a Fire
Weather Watch in place for Monday...it will get upgraded to a Red
Flag Warning. This looks to be a high-end RFW with conditions
Critical to Extreme.
The storm system quickly exits early Tuesday, with a flat and dry
westerly flow pattern across the SW U.S. for the rest of the week.
This will keep the region warm, dry, and breezy each afternoon;
keeping fire weather conditions elevated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 85 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 81 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 85 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 81 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 57 39 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 80 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 72 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 82 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 79 44 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 83 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 85 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 87 52 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 77 52 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 85 52 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 81 49 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 82 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 80 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 83 47 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 82 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 80 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 71 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 68 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 67 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 73 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 77 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 80 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 72 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 75 41 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 78 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 73 44 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 75 44 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 79 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 80 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 80 44 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 73 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
TXZ418>424.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for TXZ055-056.
NM...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
NMZ403-405>411-414>417-427>429.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ111>113.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird