Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 221132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will have nice weather today, not much wind and high
temperatures running a few degrees above average. Increasing winds
and unsettled weather begin on Saturday, with warm temperatures
and breezy afternoon winds. We will be cooler on Sunday, but it
will be very windy, with areas of blowing dust. Monday will also
be breezy and it will be the coolest day of the week with high
temperatures running, 10 to 20 degrees below average. We will be
warmer for the middle of next week, with breezy to windy
afternoons each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will have nice weather today as upper level high pressure
builds across the area. Our skies will be mostly clear, our high
temperatures will run a few degrees above average and our winds
will generally be light. Overall a lovely day. Of course we will
have to pay for today`s nice weather.

For the weekend, we will begin to come under the influence of a
series of upper level troughs. On Saturday, as the upper level
trough gets organized over California, we will a dry southwest
flow develop across the region. This weather pattern will give us
breezy to windy afternoon conditions with our high temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above average. The real impactful weather
starts on Sunday. By late Sunday morning, the upper level trough
will be nearing the Four Corners region. At the same time an
impressively strong lee side surface trough will be developing in
southeast Colorado. The strong surface trough will create a tight
packing of the surface pressure gradient across New Mexico. The
surface trough combined with strong winds aloft associated with
the upper level trough will lead to a very windy Sunday afternoon.
A high wind watch is in place for much of southern New Mexico and
far west Texas for Sunday. Probabilistic data is showing a better
than 50% chance for sustained winds of 40 mph across much of the
lowlands east of the Rio Grande and in area mountains. And if you
look at the probabilistic data for wind gusts, the NBM is showing
80+% chances for wind gusts above 70 mph in the Sacramento
Mountains. Our temperatures on Sunday will be cooler than we saw
on Saturday, but despite the cooler temperatures, I do think we
will see areas of blowing dust across much of lowlands. I do need
to mention that the upper level trough will also give us a chance
for some light snow in area mountains and light rain in the
lowland, mainly west of the Continental Divide.

On Monday, a second trough will swing across southern New Mexico
and continue to give us a chance for lowland rain and light
mountain snow showers. Snow levels on Monday will be lower at
around 5,000 to 6,000 feet, but snow totals will be light at less
than an inch. Monday is also looking breezy to windy, but nothing
like we will see on Sunday. Tuesday will see yet another upper
level short wave trough move across the area, which will continue
our light precipitation chances and give us breezy to windy
conditions in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday
will run 10 to 20 degrees below average. Then on Wednesday of next
week, we will take a break, with warmer temperatures and less
winds as an upper level short wave ridge builds across the region.
But then another short wave trough (this one looks dry) will give
us another afternoon with breezy to windy conditions on next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Despite it
being March we will have generally light winds this afternoon,
mainly out of the west or northwest. For tonight our winds will be
light and variable. We will have unlimited ceilings today, but
high clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and we will
have high ceilings of BKN250 this evening into Saturday morning.
As a heads up, as I mentioned, we will have light winds today,
but then we will have breezy to windy conditions of Saturday and
very strong winds and blowing dust on Sunday. Enjoy today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

As we head further into March, we are seeing more and more breezy
to windy days. Today will be nice with not much wind and high
temperatures running a little above average. But then for weekend
and approaching upper level storm system will give us breezy winds
on Saturday and very windy conditions on Sunday. There will also
be a slight chance for lowland rain and high mountain snow showers
on Sunday, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Min RH`s in the lowlands
on Saturday will be in the teens, but fire danger ratings and fuel
moisture are still elevated so I`m not expecting any fire weather
headlines this weekend. Monday will be the coolest day of the
week, with breezy winds and min RH`s above 20%. For the middle of
next week, we will see increasing winds and decreasing min RH`s.
We could see some elevated to critical fire weather condition next
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            73  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               78  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               75  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  35  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    73  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              68  45  68  36 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   76  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                74  45  77  41 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       77  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                79  43  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78  46  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  48  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   78  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             75  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           76  54  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            75  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    77  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 75  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  65  38  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  39  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 64  37  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  41  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                72  45  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                73  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             68  40  68  33 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                   71  43  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    74  45  74  39 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               69  45  68  36 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                  71  45  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   74  45  77  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  74  46  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           74  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               69  48  71  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     TXZ418>424.

NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     NMZ407>411-414>417-426>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice


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