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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 120827
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy and warm conditions are expected through the weekend. A
passing trough is expected to bring strong winds for Monday with
critical fire danger across the area and possible blowing dust in
the lowlands. Temperatures cool slightly behind that system as
breezy winds linger through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A very warm day is expected today as the upper ridge shifts to the
east and southerly winds increase. High temp forecast for El Paso
remains on track, coming very close to 90F (~50% chance of
reaching that value and at least tying a daily record). NBM 75th
percentile is still 91. High clouds from a baroclinic leaf may
interfere with our diurnal heating this afternoon. Slightly
cooler temperatures expected for Saturday behind a weak shortwave
that passes to the northwest tonight. Breezy winds (generally
15-25 mph) are expected Friday-Sunday, shifting southwesterly
under mostly clear skies.

Not much change in the forecast for Monday: A bowling ball of an
upper low reaches the central CA coast on Saturday, digging to the
southeast into AZ by Monday. This closed low will scoot across
the Four Corners on Monday (likely in the afternoon), creating
excellent lee troughing along the southern High Plains later in
the day. GEFS mean continues to show a very strong lee cyclone in
NE CO of about 985mb at Tuesday 0z with a tight and large
pressure gradient across our area Monday PM (850mb winds of
40-45kts). This synoptic pattern is ideal for a very windy day,
moreso in eastern areas since the trough looks to swing through a
bit later in the day. Wind grids were bumped up slightly from NBM
closer to the 75th percentile for Monday afternoon (mostly 30-40
mph sustained and gusts to 55 mph).

No wind products will be posted at this time, but confidence is
high for a Day 4 forecast. I would expect us to issue High Wind
Watches by tomorrow if not this afternoon`s forecast package.
With the W-SW wind direction, blowing dust is likely to be a
concern as well Monday PM downwind of dust sources, including the
El Paso area. Patchy blowing dust remains in the wx grids for now
for Mon PM in most of the lowlands. We will gain more confidence
in dust potential by Sunday as models come in. No precip is
expected as the upper low`s center passes along the CO-NM border
or thereabouts. A Pacific cold front is modeled to push through
the CWA Mon PM, bringing in slightly cooler air. Zonal/SW flow
then takes over into the middle of next week, keeping winds
breezy, temperatures warm, and skies mostly clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250 with increasing
SCT200 BKN-OVC250 after 18Z. Surface winds east/southeast AOB
7KT. Winds increasing to south/southwest 10-15G25KT after 18Z.
Wind shear possible from 09Z-15Z--south 25-30KT around 020 feet,
mainly over Hudspeth, El Paso and Dona Ana Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Fire weather concerns will be on the increase into early next
week. Very dry conditions are expected throughout the period with
min RHs near or below critical levels each afternoon. Breezy
winds (~15 mph at 20 feet) develop for this afternoon, resulting
in elevated to near critical fire danger. Winds increase a bit
more for the weekend (20-ft winds closer to 20 mph) with continued
elevated-near critical conditions. Winds shift southwesterly this
weekend as the upper ridge translates to the east and deep SW
flow takes over on the backside. ERCs will be rising due to the
warmer conditions, breezy winds, and continued dry pattern.

The big day for fire weather will be Monday as a closed low
swings through northern NM, producing a tight and large pressure
gradient across the CWA associated with the cold front. Most if
not all of the moisture stays to our north, keeping us dry. 20-ft
W-SW winds of 25-30 mph are forecast with higher speeds in the
Sacs as RHs remain near 10% or below in the lowlands. RFTIs of
around 7 are likely in most of the lowlands, resulting in
critical and possibly extreme fire weather. Fire Weather Watches
should be posted by tomorrow if not this afternoon if trends
hold. FWZ 110 should see better conditions due to wetter fuels and
more marginal surface moisture.

Min RHs range from 7-15% through the period with isolated higher
values in the mountains. Vent rates will be mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            80  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               88  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               61  39  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    83  49  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   85  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             87  50  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               79  52  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   88  52  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           85  56  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            84  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 85  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  73  46  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                73  44  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 71  42  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  76  41  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                82  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                83  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  40  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   80  42  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  46  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  45  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson