-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
983
FXUS64 KEPZ 071726
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather will persist through much of the period. There is a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend for the
mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande. The winds will be
breezy to windy through the middle of the week before becoming
light to breezy toward the end of the week. The temperatures will
be above the normal in the lowlands through Wednesday, but will
cool to below the normal the latter half of the week and
throughout the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently, the winds are light to breezy with mostly clear skies
and the temperatures on the mild side. For today, the conditions
will be similar to that of yesterday, dry and breezy to windy.
With dry conditions and a westerly flow, there will be a chance
for patchy blowing dust across the lowland areas near the
International Border as well as around the White Sands area. The
skies will be sunny with the high temperatures in the afternoon
above the normal in the lowlands and vice versa in the mountains.
For tonight, quiet weather will continue as we will be under a
flat ridge. The winds will gradually subside by around late
evening. With this ridge in place, the low temperatures on
Wednesday morning will be above the normal for must of the area.
For the rest of the work week, the daily winds will gradually
decrease each consecutive day through Friday while the
temperatures cool to below the normal. This is because of a change
with the flow in the winds as low develops across the Southwest.

This upper level low will continue to meander across the
California. As a result, some long range models are hinting at
showers moving across the mountains and the eastern portions of
our CWA mainly east of the Rio Grande. However, as of now, this is
only a slight chance for showers and possibly a few isolated
thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For the rest of the period,
quiet weather will persist as this low opens up into a wave and
gradually moves across the Southwest and into the Plains. The
winds are expected to be light to breeze with the temperatures
warming to above the normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Another breezy afternoon is expected today with gusts near 30kts
from the W developing. Not much BLDU is modeled later today as a
result, but KELP may see VIS reductions to 5 SM in the early
evening. Winds stay elevated through the evening, subsiding to
around 10kts overnight. W winds increase again near the end of
the period. Mainly SKC expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Dry conditions will continue today. The 20ft winds will be breezy to
windy and the temperatures above the normal in the lowlands and
below the normal in the mountains. Tonight recovery will be poor
to fair. For Wednesday, similar conditions are expected. However,
the min RHs will slightly increase. The 20ft winds will continue
to breezy to windy and the temperatures similar to that of today.
Wednesday overnight recovery will be fair to good. For the rest
of the period, the winds will decrease as the moisture gradually
increase especially in the mountains and areas east of the Rio
Grande. Toward the end of the period, there maybe a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms across zones 113, 056 and parts of
112. Due to this, critical to extreme fire conditions are expected
today through Wednesday with conditions becoming elevated to near
critical the rest of the period.

The min RHs today will be below 15% areawide. The min RHs on
Wednesday will be below 15% in the Lowlands and between 14 and
18% in the mountains. The ventilation rates will be excellent for
the same period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            83  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               87  54  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               83  51  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               60  40  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    85  51  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              73  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   85  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                83  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               80  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           85  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            83  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    85  51  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 85  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                83  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  73  47  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                71  44  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 70  43  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  75  44  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  48  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                83  46  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             74  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   78  43  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    80  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               75  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  77  46  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  51  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  51  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  48  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ110>113.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson