Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 222127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
327 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and dry conditions will continue into Saturday with 100
degree plus temperatures across the desert lowlands. The warmest
temperatures will be in the Rio Grande Valley and the El Paso
metro areas. A heat advisory is in effect for those areas until
Sunday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for
the latter part of the weekend and next week. Moisture will
gradually increase next week for a slight chance of rain and
thunderstorms toward next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very hot temperatures persist across the area with much of the
lowland deserts experiencing temperatures in the 103 to 107
degrees range this afternoon. Lingering high pressure over the
area will keep temperatures hot on Saturday, but maybe a couple of
degrees cooler. A heat advisory is in effect through Saturday for
the Rio Grande Valley from just north of Las Cruces through the
El Paso metro area and further south to Fort Hancock. This is the
area where the hottest temperatures are expected to occur.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday as west flow
brings a slightly cooler air mass to the region. This feature is
part of a pattern shift that has a low pressure system moving
through the northern and central rockies. Breezy conditions will
occur in the afternoon as surface low deepens east of the area.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 90s to low 100s on
Sunday.

For the first part of next week, hot temperatures should return,
but will not be as hot as is occurring today. High pressure aloft
will partially re-establish itself during the first part of next
week, but it will be less defined and will be impacted by passing
systems to the north and easterly waves passing to the south.
Overall, it will remain mostly dry through much of the week.
Modest intrusions of moisture may allow for a few thunderstorms to
develop over the Sacramento mountains by the middle of the week.
Winds over all will be light.

There will be a gradual moistening of the air mass toward the
latter part of the week as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico begins
to filter into the area from the south and east. This may increase
chances for showers and thunderstorms late next week. However, a
dry westerly flow will still try to keep the moisture out of the
area. So, chances for rain remain highly uncertain at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z.
Hot and dry weather continues, with VFR conditions expected for the
next 24 hours. Isolated CU build ups expected over higher elevations
in the Sacramento mountains and Gila region through 02Z and again
after 23/20Z. Winds 240-280/10-15KTS genly all areas through 03Z.
Winds 280-300/15-20G25KTS southern NM and far west TX terminals
after 23/18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably hot and dry weather through next week, with some Cumulus
buildups on tap over the mountains each afternoon. Broad northwest
flow aloft will carry a series of upper level disturbances across
the four corners through early in the work week. This will sustain
breezy west-northwest winds for all areas over the weekend. Weak
high pressure aloft will follow and redevelop over the region
starting Tuesday...for a return to lighter winds. There is a threat
of isolated mountain storms mainly for the Sacs starting the middle
of next week, as low level moisture may try to sneak in from the
east at that time.  Lowland highs will range from the upper 90`s to
107. Mountain readings will range from the high 70s to middle 80s.
The pattern of northwest flow aloft, will ensure very good to
excellent vent rates areawide Friday-early next week. Min RH will
range from the middle teens to single digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78 105  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           75 103  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              71 103  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              71 103  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              59  83  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   72 103  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             66  96  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  69 102  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               69 101  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77 104  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               73 106  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            77 107  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              73 100  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  74 106  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            75 104  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73 104  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           69 104  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   70 105  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                71 103  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               74 104  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 63  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               61  92  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                62  89  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 62  95  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               66 100  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               69 103  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            58  94  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  66  98  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   62 101  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              66  98  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 66  98  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  68 101  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 69 102  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          68 100  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              65  95  66  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ411.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423.

&&

$$

04/22 Lundeen/Tripoli


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