Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202018
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
218 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
East winds will push cool air into southern New mexico and west
Texas tonight and Sunday with below normal temperatures expected
along with slight chances for light rain. Upper level disturbances
will cause scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday
night through Tuesday with isolated rain showers Wednesday and
Thursday. Westerly winds will bring warmer dry weather next Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushed east to west across New Mexico and west Texas
this morning with breezy to marginally windy east winds now
advecting cooler Canadian air into the region. This will result in
cooler below normal temperatures Sunday with highs around 10
degrees below normal tomorrow. An upper low was meanwhile
spinning off the California coast and causing southwesterly winds
aloft across the CWA. This scenario will result in weak uplift of
warmer air from Baja over the cooler air at low levels with
lifting possibly enhanced weak embedded waves. Thus very isolated
light rain showers may occur tonight and Sunday with most areas of
the area probably staying dry. This pattern will persist into
Monday as upper low drifts into the Great Basin with below normal
temperatures and mostly dry weather continuing.

Monday night and Tuesday upper low becomes an open wave with a
stronger short wave ejecting ahead of it across New Mexico and
west Texas. This feature will provide stronger upward dynamic
forcing over the area. In addition low level south to southeast
winds will advect moisture with surface dewpoints rising to around
50 F and precipitable water increasing to around.8 to 1.2 inches
most locations. Air mass becomes more unstable with Tuesday CAPE`s
around 500 to 1000 J/kg while 40 kt southwesterly flow at 6 km
provides favorable shear for updraft enhancement. Thus showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread Monday night and Tuesday
with several storms possibly becoming severe on Tuesday.

West to northwest flow aloft will transport drier more stable ir
into the CWA Wednesday and Thursday causing a slow warming trend.
Nevertheless weak embedded waves and residual moisture may
support isolated rain showers  on these days. By Friday and
Saturday however precipitable water will be diminished below a
half inch with surface dewpoints less than 50 resulting dry
weather and near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN080-100 with isold -SHRA through 18Z. After
18Z SCT-BKN030-040 BKN050-070 with isold to scattered -SHRA BKN020-
030. Mainly east to southeast winds 5-15KTS, 10-20KTS western mtn
slopes and around KLSB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough continues to remain off the California coast and will
draw some moisture back into the region over the coming days. Mainly
just light isolated to scattered showers expected through Monday,
but as the trough starts to push east toward the region, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. Temperatures will
cool down for Sunday before rebounding again Monday and remaining
near normal through midweek. Starting Monday night and continuing
through Wednesday there is a good chance for precipitation with some
strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday. After a breezy day today
and into Sunday, winds will be on the decrease for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  62  50  71 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           49  59  47  68 /  20  30   0   0
Las Cruces              51  61  47  68 /  10  20   0   0
Alamogordo              50  61  47  68 /  10  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  46  38  53 /  10  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   50  62  47  68 /   0  20   0   0
Silver City             47  60  43  64 /   0  20  20  20
Deming                  53  62  48  68 /  10  20   0   0
Lordsburg               53  66  48  69 /  10  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro      54  61  50  69 /  20  20   0   0
Dell City               50  61  48  70 /  20  30   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  65  51  73 /  20  30   0   0
Loma Linda              48  57  45  67 /  20  20   0   0
Fabens                  53  64  50  72 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  62  49  69 /  20  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  60  48  69 /  10  20   0   0
Jornada Range           51  60  48  68 /  10  20   0   0
Hatch                   52  63  48  69 /   0  20   0   0
Columbus                54  63  48  68 /  10  20   0   0
Orogrande               51  61  48  69 /  10  20   0   0
Mayhill                 38  50  39  62 /  10  30   0   0
Mescalero               40  52  40  61 /  10  30   0   0
Timberon                41  51  40  60 /  10  30   0   0
Winston                 41  58  39  63 /   0  20  10  20
Hillsboro               47  59  44  67 /   0  20   0   0
Spaceport               49  60  47  68 /   0  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            42  62  39  65 /   0  20  20  20
Hurley                  47  60  44  65 /   0  20  10  10
Cliff                   49  69  44  70 /   0  20  10  10
Mule Creek              50  67  45  67 /   0  20  10  20
Faywood                 48  59  45  65 /   0  20  10  10
Animas                  53  67  48  68 /  10  20  10  20
Hachita                 52  64  46  68 /  10  20  10  10
Antelope Wells          52  67  47  68 /  10  20  10  20
Cloverdale              51  66  47  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz


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