Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190923
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 AM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures along with drier weather will occur across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today with afternoon
temperatures near 100 across the lower elevations. A weak cold
front will move across the region tonight resulting in slightly
lower temperatures on Monday. For the rest of this week the
Borderland will experience seasonably warm weather and a few
showers and thunderstorms with most thunderstorm activity
occurring around mountain locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently southern New Mexico and west Texas are located between
upper high pressure center west of the divide and troughing over
the plains. Resultant circulation includes north to northwest
winds over the region with advection of much drier air. Thus by
late this afternoon precipitable water will be reduced to only
around .5 to .75 inch most areas as dewpoints fall below 50 F.
These trends also stabilize the air mass so mostly dry weather
will occur. Abundant sunshine plus subsidence will also support
today`s high temperatures near 100 across the lower elevations.

Tonight a weak cold front will move east to west across the CWA
with easterly winds behind the boundary advecting slightly cooler
but also a more moist air mass. Consequently dewpoints will rise
above 50 again with the precipitable increasing water above 1 inch
most locations. Air mass thus becomes slightly unstable with a few
showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight through Monday
night. Monday high temperatures should also cool around 5 degrees.


By Monday afternoon upper high center will be positioned near
central New Mexico-Arizona border area with this feature moving
into central New Mexico by Tuesday before continuing eastward into
texas panhandle region Wednesday and central Texas Thursday.
Meanwhile low level east to southeast flow will sustain moisture
inflow in the lower boundary layer during this time.

Initially warm air aloft and large scale subsidence from proximity
of upper high will keep most of the CWA dry Tuesday through
Thursday with barely sufficient moisture for a few mainly
mountain areas thunderstorms. However after upper high center
moves further east subsidence is diminished and attendant
anticyclonic flow will transport more moisture into the region
from the south. Consequently by next Friday precipitable water
will be around 1.2 to 1.4 inches with CAPE`s generally around 500
to 1000 J/kg. This scenario will result in increased thunderstorm
coverage Thursday night through Saturday especially if weak
impulses aloft move into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 19/12z-20/12z.
VFR conditions with skies mostly SKC-SCT060-100. Surface winds
around 5-15 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot temperatures along with drier weather will occur across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today with afternoon
temperatures near 100 across the lower elevations. A weak cold
front will move across the region tonight resulting in slightly
lower temperatures on Monday. For the rest of this week the
Borderland will experience seasonably warm weather and a few
showers and thunderstorms with most thunderstorm activity
occurring around mountain locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  76  95  73 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           96  70  91  68 /  20  10  20  10
Las Cruces              98  69  94  69 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              97  68  93  68 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              75  48  67  51 /   0  20  30  40
Truth or Consequences   98  68  93  70 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             92  60  89  62 /   0   0  20  30
Deming                  99  69  96  69 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg               97  66  96  70 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      99  75  94  73 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               99  70  93  69 /   0  20  20  20
Fort Hancock           101  73  96  71 /  20   0  10  10
Loma Linda              96  69  89  67 /   0  10   0  20
Fabens                 100  70  95  70 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            99  73  95  72 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          98  70  94  69 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           98  67  95  68 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   98  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                99  71  97  71 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande               98  73  93  70 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 83  54  75  57 /   0  20  30  40
Mescalero               85  54  79  57 /   0  20  30  40
Timberon                84  55  77  57 /   0  20  30  40
Winston                 91  52  86  58 /   0   0  30  30
Hillsboro               96  64  92  65 /   0   0  30  30
Spaceport               97  67  92  68 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            90  49  87  57 /   0   0  30  40
Hurley                  93  61  90  64 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                   96  56  94  61 /   0   0  10  30
Mule Creek              94  55  93  59 /   0   0   0  30
Faywood                 94  64  90  66 /   0   0  20  30
Animas                  97  67  97  69 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                 98  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells          95  67  94  67 /  10   0  10  30
Cloverdale              92  63  91  65 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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