Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 212234
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
334 PM MST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will slowly move across the area
tonight, with strong westerly winds expected to continue through
this afternoon across the area. Gusty winds will continue to
affect the higher terrain and lowland areas east of area mountain
ranges through much of the night. Temperatures will drop 20 to 25
degrees behind this system, with high temperatures Tuesday
expected to be stuck in the upper-40s and lower-50s in the
lowlands, and the upper-20s and 30s in the Sacramento Mountains. A
weak secondary disturbance will bring some scattered snow showers
to the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday afternoon, with an inch or two
of snow possible above 6,000 feet. Tuesday night will bring frigid
temperatures to the region, with lows dipping into the upper teens
and 20s across the lowlands by Wednesday morning. Cold
temperatures will return again Wednesday night, with temperatures
returning to near normal Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are continuing to increase across the region, though they
have been lagging over the El Paso area to some degree. The
strongest gusts so far today, not counting the 80 mph at San
Augustin Pass, have been in the 60 to 65 mph range at WSMR HQ on
the downslope side of the Organ Mountains. Interestingly, gusts in
northeast El Paso have only been up to 40 mph at Tom Lea
Elementary School.

Lack of Obs in the higher terrain of the Gila Region and less-
than-ideal siting in most of the Sacramentos leaves us wondering
how the High Wind Warning is faring, but earlier gusts to 62 knots
at KSRR suggest it`s best to keep it going, even as gusts at
Sunspot have been a disappointing 46 mph so far.

A plume of dust can be seen on KEPZ reflectivity and (just
barely) on GOES-16 visible imagery heading into Santa Teresa from
a very small source region in Chihuahua just east of the New
Mexico Bootheel. The view outside our west window confirms this.
However, visibility will generally be in the 3 to 5 mile range at
worst.

Unfortunately, NMDOT cameras and RWIS stations on Lordsburg Playa
have been out of service for several weeks, but a recent call to
NM State Police revealed there have been intermittent road
closures on I-10 on the playa. The area is far too small to detect
on satellite, and with winds expected to continue to increase
through the remainder of afternoon, a Dust Storm Warning (polygon)
for the next few hours seemed the best course of action.

The main trough doesn`t look to pass the area until tomorrow
morning, and all models suggest the strongest winds in the 800-700
mb layer look to be between 03Z and 09Z. Forecast soundings at ELP
have a fairly strong inversion developing around 8-9K feet after
03Z, which is ideal for strong gusts to persist after midnight
along the east slopes of the Franklin and Organ Mountains. Wind
Advisories will extended in these areas shortly.

Min temperatures are a challenge tonight...ramped up temps along
the east slopes of the Franklins and Organs with the expected
winds. Expect there will be sharp contrasts between ELP and other
areas such as the Upper Valley.

Cooler NW to N winds will result in a 20 to 25 degree drop in
temperatures (comparing MaxT today to tomorrow). A weak surface
trough and some mid-level moisture may result in some widely
scattered snow showers in the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday
afternoon into the early evening, with some light accumulations (1
to 2 inches) possible above 6,000 feet.

Lighter winds Tuesday night will allow temperatures to drop
quickly, with min temps by Wednesday morning in the upper-10s and
20s across the lowlands, and even cooler in the Sacramentos and
Gila. Thursday morning mins will be a little milder, but still
below freezing in most areas.

Broadly speaking, we`ll be in a dry NW flow pattern for the rest
of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will warm up into
the upper-50s (lowlands) by Thursday. A shortwave trough dropping
into the southern Plains Thursday will drop a backdoor cold front
into the area Thursday night, keeping temperatures a few degrees
below normal for Friday. Another weak disturbance and backdoor
front will peel a couple more degrees off for Saturday, but near-
normal temperatures may return by Sunday (note: "normals" approach
60 by early next week!)

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
P6SM FEW050-070 FEW-SCT200-250 through 12Z then FEW-SCT040-060
SCT-BKN100-120. Winds will start out gusty from the SW to W at 15-
25G35KTS and slowly decrease by 03Z to 10-20G30KTS and shift more
northwesterly except at KELP where winds are not expected to die
down until around 12Z. Winds after 12Z will gradually be shifting
around to the NW to N at 10-20KTS. A few 1-3SM -SHSN BKN010-020
possible in the Sacramento Mountains after 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be on the decrease through the evening but still remain a
bit breezy through the night, especially on eastern mountain slopes.
Temperatures will drop about 20 degrees for Tuesday behind the
system bringing the strong winds this afternoon. Temperatures will
remain at or below normal through at least Friday under a dry north
to northwest flow aloft. Minimum relative humidities will mainly be
in the 20s into the weekend. Winds will not be much of a concern for
the remainder of the period. Vent rates will be good to very good
again Tuesday, but as lighter winds return poor to fair rates are
expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  52  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           37  50  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              36  52  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  47  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              18  28  11  34 /   0  30  10   0
Truth or Consequences   32  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             28  44  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  31  52  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               29  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      40  51  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  53  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  54  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  48  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  38  53  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            35  52  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          40  50  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           31  50  16  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   32  52  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                35  52  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               33  48  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 27  37  15  46 /   0  20  10   0
Mescalero               24  36  14  42 /   0  20  10   0
Timberon                22  38  12  41 /   0  30  10   0
Winston                 24  44  14  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               28  48  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               30  48  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            20  43  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  27  46  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   24  49  17  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              24  46  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  47  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  31  50  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 29  50  19  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  50  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              30  47  21  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for NMZ401-404>413-
     417.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for NMZ402-403-
     414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz


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