Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
313 PM MDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A continued push of cold air from the east will keep the
Borderland region temperatures much below normal through the week.
It will also keep skies generally cloudy with a fair amount of
low clouds. Finally, winds will remain somewhat breezy and create
brisk conditions. Area mountains may see some light snow and
freezing fog overnight while most of the lowlands remain cloudy,
cold, and dry. Late week will bring warmer and drier conditions,
with fewer clouds. By Sunday another storm system to our west
will bring an increase in lowland rain and mountain snow shower
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A persistent surface high continuing to settle over the Southern
Plains will keep an easterly push into and across the CWFA for the
next several days. This push of much cooler air will keep the low
levels near saturation with plenty of low stratus clouds being the
result. The overcast conditions will help to slow any airmass
modification while the cold air advection helps to bolster the
cooler conditions and slow any warming through Thursday. An strong
shortwave is spinning across the CWFA today ahead of the closed
upper-level low over AZ. This feature has kept some showers in
progress through the day...snow over the SW mountains, and
cold rain over the lowlands. This channel of instability is
rotating north and beginning to depart the area. On the backside
of this is a channel of drier air aloft moving in. Overnight we
could see more low stratus and fog over the east slopes of the
SACs. With freezing temps expected freezing fog and drizzle over
the midslopes and light snow over higher elevations is possible.
Accumulations should be quite light.

For the next 48 hours we see this upper low lift away and dissolve
over the Four Corners as a new low forms off the S CA coast. The
SW flow aloft will keep a drier flow into the region as lower
level flow continues a moist SE flow. For WED through SAT the area
will be without any forcing aloft and only shallow moisture
below. Thus clouds should persist, but showers will be very
sparse. Fewer clouds are expected for THU and FRI before
increasing moisture begins to move back in at low levels across
TX. Friday and Saturday are notable days as we see our best
warming` before the next cool down. Temperatures will still be
below normal, but warmer by about 10 degrees.

As the upper-low deeps to our west late in the week and Gulf high
pressure presses west we will see increasing moisture from the SW
and thus more cloud cover and slight increases in rain chances
from the E and S, slowly expanding N and W across the region by
mid to late weekend. A second cold front boundary moves across the
region late Saturday. It increases our winds Saturday and cools
our temperatures Sunday. The upper system to our west will open
and begin to move over S CA by Sunday. This will begin a 48 hr
period of increased POP potential as this system brings increased
dynamics and instability aloft for late Sunday through Tuesday.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
Low ceilings will persist through the period with intermittent
periods of MVFR. P6SM FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN025-040 through period
with patchy areas of BKN015-025, especially on eastern side of area
mountains. Isolated lowland -SHRA and mountain -SHRASN are expected
overnight through 06z. East to northeast winds of 10-20G30KTS will
continue through period with strongest winds on western mtn slopes
and west of divide near KLSB.

04-Lundeen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler below normal temperatures will persist through Thursday,
warming up to a few degrees below normal by the weekend. The
temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees below normal will keep relative
humidities above 40-50 percent through the weekend. A persistent
upper low off to the west of the area will keep a daily chance for
light showers going through the next week with some light snow
possible in the mountains over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
out of the east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph through Wednesday
before starting to decrease late this week. Mixing heights will
remain fairly low which will keep vent rates generally poor. Vent
rates should increase into the fair category Wednesday afternoon.

04-Lundeen

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 40  52  42  55 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca           37  45  39  53 /   0  10  20  40
Las Cruces              38  51  40  53 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              36  54  38  54 /  10  10  20  30
Cloudcroft              28  40  30  43 /  40  20  30  40
Truth or Consequences   38  51  40  54 /  20  10  20  30
Silver City             34  46  36  52 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                  38  50  40  53 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               39  52  41  56 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      41  51  43  55 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City               35  50  37  53 /   0  10  30  40
Fort Hancock            40  52  42  59 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda              35  45  37  49 /   0   0  20  30
Fabens                  39  52  41  58 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Teresa            39  52  41  54 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          40  51  42  53 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range           36  52  38  53 /  10  10   0  20
Hatch                   39  52  41  54 /   0  10   0  20
Columbus                39  51  41  57 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               39  52  41  54 /  10  10  20  20
Mayhill                 24  39  27  45 /  50  20  40  50
Mescalero               29  42  31  47 /  40  20  30  40
Timberon                28  41  30  45 /  30  20  30  50
Winston                 31  43  33  48 /  30  20  30  30
Hillsboro               35  48  37  50 /  20  20  20  20
Spaceport               35  51  37  53 /  10  10  10  20
Lake Roberts            31  47  33  51 /  30  20  20  10
Hurley                  35  46  37  51 /  20  10   0   0
Cliff                   33  52  35  56 /  20  10   0   0
Mule Creek              32  53  34  58 /  20  10   0   0
Faywood                 36  46  38  49 /  20  10   0  20
Animas                  39  52  41  58 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  50  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  52  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              36  50  38  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/04


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