Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211202
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
502 AM MST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After a generally peaceful weekend in the weather department,
today brings another strong wind event to the Borderland. A
Pacific trough, complete with a strong jet and tight pressure
gradients will move in to bring strong and gusty winds to all
areas by late morning. The lowlands are under a wind advisory,
while the area mountains are under a high wind warning. Otherwise
high clouds and mild temperatures. Be careful driving due to
buffeting winds and isolated areas of blowing dust. A cold front
arrives tomorrow to bring a noticeable cool down. Temperatures
will drop around 20 degrees from today`s highs. The Sacramento
mountains may see some light snow showers, but the the rest of the
region looks too dry for precipitation. For the rest of the week
the area looks to stay dry as storms pass well north and east of
the region. However several more minor cold fronts will push in
through the week to keep temperatures seasonally chilly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A wide swath of high clouds streaming over the region signal the
front side of the next Pacific weather system to drop into the
Southwestern U.S. This system is quite continental and dry, and
tapping no mid or low level moisture, so this system will be a dry
one for us. However it will do very well in bringing strong and
gusty winds to the region. Aloft a 120kt jet will move over
central NM this afternoon, as a deep lee-side surface trough
develops over the plains and extends SW into our region. The
moderate mixing aloft, thanks to warm surface temps, and the
tight low level gradients will help to mix down strong winds aloft
and support strong winds below. Thus we continue with our high
wind warnings for the mountains, and wind advisories for the
lowlands today. Dust could be an issue with the warmer temps and
better mixing than with last Friday`s similar storm system.

The upper low drags across NM on Tuesday and helps to pull a cold
front through the region. Again, with very little moisture, most
of our region will remain free from precipitation, but the SACs
could see some light snow showers, with little accumulations. Thus
no winter highlights. This cold front will bring a noticeable drop
in our temperatures, with highs on TUE about 20 degrees cooler
than today.

Wednesday a west coast upper ridge rebounds. Thursday another
Pacific disturbance spills over this feature, but it appears to
exit the intermountain west across the central Rockies and thus
miss our area to the NE. This trough passage does drop in another
cold front to slow, or slightly reverse, and warmup we see after
Tuesday`s cool down.

For the rest of the forecast cycle...out to next MONDAY...we see
more of the same, with an anchored ridge over the west coast
looking to keep the storm track nudged far enough north to keep
storm systems, out of the Pac, NW passing well to our NE. Thus we
should see a fair stretch of fair and dry weather, with no
significant weather highlights. Just minor cool pushes washing in
from the plains every other day or so as these upper systems pass
by. Thus temperatures will bounce, through the week, a bit above
or a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/12Z-22/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions through the period. Skies SCT-BKN250 thru
22Z...then FEW-SCT250 after 22Z. Winds start light to moderate but
steadily increase through the morning and afternoon hours. Winds
SW-W 10-15kts thru 15Z...increasing to 20-30kts thru
19Z...becoming 25-35kts with gusts to 45kts after 19Z. VSBY
generally P6SM with isolated and temporary 1-3SM BLDU possible
after 20Z along and south of KDMN- KALM line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong upper level trough approaches the area today to bring
strong winds, similar to last Friday. Temperatures will be warmer,
in SW flow, with relative humidities at or slightly below 15
percent over eastern areas. This could result in some critical
fire conditions developing over areas east of a Deming to Truth or
Consequences line. Fuels are borderline dry. As the trough moves
over, a cold front pushes in Tuesday to bring much colder air.
Highs will drop about 15 to 20 degrees for Tuesday with most
locations struggling to get much above the lower 50s with highest
mountain elevations remaining below freezing with even some light
snow possible in the Sacs. Dry northwest flow will dominate the
pattern for the remainder of the week with high temperatures
gradually warming through the 50s over the lowlands with winds
generally under 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           73  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              69  35  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              65  33  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              48  17  27  14 /   0   0  20   0
Truth or Consequences   66  34  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  27  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  67  31  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               66  31  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  39  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               72  37  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            75  40  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              68  34  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  73  39  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            70  36  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          68  36  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           68  32  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   69  32  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                70  34  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               69  34  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 59  26  35  18 /   0   0  20   0
Mescalero               56  23  34  18 /   0   0  20   0
Timberon                56  23  35  18 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                 62  23  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               64  28  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               67  33  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            55  22  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  59  27  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   60  25  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              57  25  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 61  27  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  67  32  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 68  30  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          68  32  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              65  29  46  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ401-404>413-417.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this
     evening for NMZ402-403-414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this evening
     for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-Bird


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