Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
442 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest Deserts the
Borderland`s weather will get warmer and drier through the week.
Lowland temperatures will top out at or above 100 degrees for most
of the region through the work week. Skies will be generally
clear with very few clouds. A bit of moisture will try to move in
from the east late in the week, but still it appears that most of
the region will stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Man that was a short monsoon! Actually, it wasn`t the monsoon at
all, it was an anomaly. It was a temporary setup that resembled a
summer flow pattern, and happened to sync up with deep moisture
from a decaying tropical system. Now we go back to our typical
mid-June conditions...which are HOT and DRY.

High pressure aloft is building to our SW. This also is not a real
frequent pattern this time of year, but it will result in real
frequent late spring conditions. The flow aloft will come from the
west and northwest. These keep dry air streaming into and across
the region, and hold the gulf moisture to our east. Thus we see
few if any clouds, as rain chances remain close to nil. In
addition temperatures under the high will continue to climb with
daily desert highs topping out in triple-digit territory.

High pressure usually means relaxed pressure gradients, and it
appears that will be the case this week with the current and
evolving pattern. This means winds on the lighter side. However
with deep mixing, there will be some mild to moderate afternoon
gusts.

The conditions described above look to hold tightly onto the
region through the work week, and into the weekend. Moisture does
look to move west across central Mexico through the week as a
minor easterly wave (inverted trough) tracks west on the south
side of the upper high. By SAT/SUN the upper high looks to weaken
our over area. This may allow some moisture to move in from both
the east and the south for a slight risk of showers and
thunderstorms by SUN/MON. That setup currently looks iffy, so
there is no confidence that this will materialize. Right now the
bet is to keep the area hot and dry well into the last week of
June.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW100-120 through period. Winds VRB and 5-10 kts thru
18Z...then shifting W 5-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation expected over the remainder of the week as high
pressure aloft will remain over the desert southwest and northwest
flow aloft dominates. The low-level drying trend will continue
over the next couple of days with relative humidities falling back
into the single digits by Wednesday with high temperatures on the
lowlands approaching or surpassing 100 degrees. A slight increase
possible in humidities for the end of the week but will remain
under 15 percent. Winds will remain about 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday
but be on the increase to 10 to 20 mph Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  74 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           96  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             100  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              98  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              77  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   99  67  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             94  60  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                 101  64 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               99  63  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     100  73 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               99  70 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           101  73 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              95  69  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 101  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           100  70 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          99  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range          100  65 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  102  64 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               102  67 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 84  59  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               85  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                84  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 92  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               97  62  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               99  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            91  52  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  95  59  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   97  54  98  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              95  59  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 96  62  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                 100  64 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                100  63 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          99  63  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              94  62  94  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird


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