Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171100
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
500 AM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly, winter-like, weather will continue today and Thursday
before moderating some Friday and over the weekend. Highs today
and Thursday will be around 25 degrees below normal but by the
weekend should warm back to "just" 10 degrees below normal. A few
showers and high elevation light snow will also continue through
this period. The weather pattern changes to a more typical west
flow early next week, with a continued chance of showers through
mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The chilly pattern of the past few days will continue for the next
couple of days but begins to change by this weekend. Persistent
Omega block ridge over the eastern Pacific has maintained an upper
low just to our west for several days. This has then allowed low
level chilly east flow to keep the CWA temperatures well below
normal, along with attendant low clouds and isolated fog. Models
finally show this pattern breaking down over the coming weekend,
with a more typical zonal or low amplitude flow for next week.
Temperatures may even be back close to normal by mid week of next
week.

In the short term...today and Thursday...chilly airmass, brisk
winds, and low clouds will continue. The clouds have ever so
slightly thinned and/or broken in places. RGB Night Microphysics
channel shows breaks, some large, occurring west of terrain in
downslope areas. This includes west of the Sacramento, Hueco,
Franklin, San Andres, Black Range, and Animas Mountains. RGB also
shows much of the cloud deck thinning, especially over west Texas
and southern Otero County. Don`t expect the low cloud deck to
disappear, but deck likely will allow some interludes of sun in
over the next two days. Temperatures a bit warmer each day but
still around 20 degrees below normal. A few showers and high
elevation snow showers possible both days, but should remain on
the light side.

Friday and the weekend...first upper low finally lifts out over
the central Rockies as a second cut off low develops off the
southern California coast. This should allow a mostly dry Friday
with just a few clouds left over. Temperatures will also climb
back to "only" around 10 degrees below normal. Aforementioned
ridge break down then accelerates Saturday as the ridge moves
around the new upper low and across the CWA Saturday. With the
ridge to our east and the upper low still to the west,
south/southwest flow will increase and begin importing sub
tropical moisture to the area. Both GFS/ECMWF show this solution
but as usual, GFS much more bullish with precip. For now will
split the difference with widespread POPs, but on the light end.

Monday through Wednesday...upper low/trough finally moves through
the area by Wednesday. Showers ending with drier west/northwest
flow after. Temperatures could be within a degree or two of normal
by Tue/Wed.

Longer range of note: Both GFS/ECMWF have been developing tropical
system with different solutions. Latest runs of both show feature
will have no impact on our area. GFS brings the system to near the
southern tip of Baja at 240 hours (next Friday) and by 384 hours
(1 November) system has moved west well out to sea. ECMWF weaker
with system but same general idea of heading out to sea.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
Low VFR-ocnl MVFR conds to continue with solid cloud deck of BKN-
OVC 070/080 with ocnl CIGS 025 through period. Few -SHRA
possible, with ocnl 5SM -SN CIGS 010 above 7000 ft in the
Sacramento Mountains. Brisk winds continuing through the period;
generally at 8-12 kts this morning and 13-18 kts this afternoon.
Also wind gusts up to 30 kts will continue along west slopes of
terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler below normal temperatures will persist through Thursday,
warming up to around just 10 degrees below normal by the weekend.
The chilly temperatures will keep relative humidities above 40-50
percent through the weekend. A persistent upper low off to the
west of the area will keep a daily chance for light showers going
today and Thursday with some light snow possible in the mountains
over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain out of the east to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph into the weekend before diminishing.

Mixing heights will remain fairly low which will keep vent rates
mostly poor, but becoming fair (or near fair) each afternoon into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 55  43  57  47 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca           49  39  55  41 /   0  20  40  30
Las Cruces              54  40  55  43 /   0   0  20  20
Alamogordo              58  38  56  43 /  10  20  30  30
Cloudcroft              39  30  45  34 /  40  30  40  40
Truth or Consequences   55  40  56  43 /  10  20  30  20
Silver City             47  36  49  40 /  20   0  10  10
Deming                  54  40  55  43 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg               55  41  58  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  43  57  46 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City               55  38  55  44 /   0  30  40  30
Fort Hancock            56  43  61  47 /   0   0  30  10
Loma Linda              49  37  51  42 /   0   0  30  20
Fabens                  55  42  60  46 /   0   0  30  20
Santa Teresa            54  41  56  44 /   0   0  20  10
White Sands HQ          55  42  55  45 /  10   0  20  20
Jornada Range           56  38  55  44 /  10   0  20  20
Hatch                   56  41  56  44 /  10   0  20  20
Columbus                54  41  59  45 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande               56  41  56  44 /   0  10  30  20
Mayhill                 39  27  47  37 /  30  40  50  30
Mescalero               43  31  49  38 /  40  30  40  30
Timberon                44  30  47  38 /  30  30  50  30
Winston                 46  34  50  35 /  20  30  30  20
Hillsboro               51  37  52  40 /  20  20  20  20
Spaceport               55  37  55  42 /  10  10  20  20
Lake Roberts            50  34  53  35 /  20  30  20  20
Hurley                  48  37  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
Cliff                   58  37  57  36 /  10   0  20  10
Mule Creek              56  36  57  37 /  10   0  10  10
Faywood                 49  38  51  41 /  10   0  20  10
Animas                  55  41  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 53  40  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          55  39  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  38  59  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner


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