Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 151125
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moved across the region early this morning.
Temperatures today will be much colder than Sunday`s highs. Strong
winds behind the front will make things feel even colder. High
temperatures today through Wednesday will run 20 to 30 degrees
below average. There will be a slight chance for light rain or
light mountain snow showers tonight through Tuesday. Our high
temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees below average through the
end of the week and into the weekend as we continue to see a
slight chance for rain each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A taste of winter has moved into the region this morning as a
strong cold front has blasted across the area. High temperatures
today through Wednesday will be more like highs we would see in
December or January. We should set record low max temperatures at
many stations today, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. As the cold air
continues to flow into the region today, it will give us some
breezy to windy conditions. Winds will be even stronger on the
west side of area mountains, so a wind advisory is in place for
today for the zones west of the Hueco and Franklin mountains. The
other weather maker in the area is a an upper level trough
centered over Arizona. The circulation around this upper level
trough will sweep moisture from the south, up and over the dome of
cold air at the surface. This airmass isn`t terribly moist, but it
will have enough moisture to squeeze out some light rain showers
in the lowlands and light snow showers in the mountains above
7,500 feet. The best chances for precipitation will on Tuesday. A
few spots in Sacramento mountains, including Cloudcroft, could
see an inch or two of snow.

For the middle and end of the week, we will see our airmass slowly
warm, but the upper level trough will continue to sit and spin
just to our west over Arizona, so we will continue to see clouds
and occasional chances for light right through Friday. High
temperatures on Wednesday will still be running 25 degrees below
average, but by Friday our highs will only be running 10 degrees
below average.

For the weekend, both the extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that
another back door cold front will move across the area on
Saturday. Indications are right now, that this second front will
not be nearly as cold as today`s front, so our highs next weekend
will continue to run only 10 degrees below average. Both models
indicate that our trough to the west will lift out to the
northeast, but another upper level trough quickly forms over
southern California. This second trough will continue our
southerly flow aloft and with the second front undercutting this
airmass we will continue to see clouds and a chance for rain
showers through at least Sunday. Looks like for the next 7 days,
we will have weather more like what you would expect for Seattle.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z
A strong cold front moved across the region this morning. This
front has ushered in an extended period of below average
temperatures, clouds and precipitation chances. We will generally
see VFR conditions today, but ceilings will develop and lower as
we go through the morning hours. Ceilings at most locations will
be BKN-OVC030-050, but we could see a few ceiling drop into the
MVFR category BKN-OVC010-020 by later this evening. There will
also be a slight chance for light rain and light mountain snow
showers this afternoon and evening. Surface winds will be brisk
from the east for today. We will see stronger and gustier winds on
the west side of area mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see colder weather over the next several days, with a
chance for precipitation each day through the weekend. A strong
cold front plowed across the region this morning, ushering in much
colder air. We will see a chance for light rain and light mountain
snows (above 8,000 feet) tonight through Tuesday, then as
temperatures recover a little for the end of the week, we will
continue to see a slight chance for rain. Surface winds today will
be from east. We will see stronger and gustier winds on the west
sides of area mountains. Winds will slow, but remain from the east
into next weekend. Min RH`s this week will run above 40% for both
the mountains and lowlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  38  48  38 /  10  30  30  20
Sierra Blanca           47  34  42  36 /  10  30  30  20
Las Cruces              53  36  48  37 /  10  30  30  30
Alamogordo              54  36  50  38 /  20  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              35  27  36  27 /  30  30  40  40
Truth or Consequences   48  35  49  37 /  20  30  30  40
Silver City             48  37  42  34 /  30  30  30  30
Deming                  54  38  48  37 /  10  30  30  30
Lordsburg               57  39  49  37 /  20  30  30  10
West El Paso Metro      51  37  46  39 /  10  30  30  20
Dell City               48  33  46  36 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Hancock            51  35  47  38 /  10  30  30  20
Loma Linda              45  36  41  34 /  10  30  30  20
Fabens                  51  38  48  37 /  10  30  30  20
Santa Teresa            53  37  48  38 /  10  30  30  20
White Sands HQ          53  37  48  39 /  20  30  30  40
Jornada Range           53  37  48  39 /  10  30  30  40
Hatch                   55  36  49  38 /  20  30  30  40
Columbus                55  38  48  38 /  10  30  30  20
Orogrande               52  36  48  38 /  10  30  30  30
Mayhill                 34  27  36  28 /  30  30  40  40
Mescalero               39  28  38  29 /  30  30  30  40
Timberon                37  28  36  29 /  30  30  40  40
Winston                 44  31  41  30 /  30  30  40  40
Hillsboro               51  32  45  34 /  20  30  40  40
Spaceport               54  35  49  37 /  10  30  30  40
Lake Roberts            49  31  43  30 /  30  30  30  30
Hurley                  51  38  43  34 /  20  30  30  30
Cliff                   61  37  53  32 /  30  30  40  30
Mule Creek              57  39  50  34 /  40  30  40  30
Faywood                 51  36  43  35 /  20  30  30  30
Animas                  58  39  48  37 /  20  30  20  20
Hachita                 55  37  46  35 /  10  30  30  20
Antelope Wells          57  38  47  35 /  20  30  20  20
Cloverdale              56  36  44  34 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-420.

&&

$$

Brice


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