Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 122224
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MST Sat Jan 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Our pattern is mostly dry through the next 5 to 6 days, meaning
most of us will stay mostly dry. However, the weather pattern is
quite active with several minor disturbances tracking across, or
just north of, the area. As early as tonight the Gila region may
see a mix of isolated rain and high mountain snow showers that
will slowly work east across our northern lowland areas, and
possibly into the Sacramento mountains for Sunday. Most areas will
only see some increases in clouds, no precipitation. The next
two weak systems, arrive Monday and again on Tuesday with only the
Gila region looking to get any precipitation. Friday, yet another
storm system passes, this one stronger with gusty and windy
conditions and slightly better chances for more of the region to
see isolated lowland rain and scattered mountain snow. Still a lot
of the area will miss out on precipitation with this storm also.
Temperatures will start out seasonally chilly and warm to above
normal for much of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave ridge translating across the forecast area today is
keeping our weather fair and benign. Tonight the axis of this
ridge eases off to our west and allows a minor shortwave
disturbance to track in from S Cal, over our western mountain
areas by midnight. Both the dynamics and the moisture are limited
with this system. The probability for precipitation, even where
it is most likely remains low and limited to the NW zones. Snow
levels should keep snowfall at or above 6000 ft overnight. Snow
amounts should stay below 2 inches for all but the highest peaks
across the Gila. A few showers may ease east across the Black
Range and into the lowlands across Sierra county. Even the Sacs
have only slight chances for pcpn due to the lifting trajectory of
the system lifting the storm just north of S Central NM early
Sunday.

Our upper and mid-level flow patterns become largely zonal for
much of the week ahead with alternating weak ridge and trough
features swinging through in a progressive flow. However Monday
afternoon a large dip in the flow to our west will allow another
pair of disturbances to clip our western zones with more moisture
and possibilities of minor showers for Monday and again on
Tuesday. The areal coverage is limited to only far W and NW zones
of our forecast areas again due to the NW trajectory of the
impulses, and the continued ridging poking in from the SE. The
next question is snow levels with these two periods of
precipitation potential. Given the systems arrive in the southern
branch from the SW they will be relatively warm with snow levels
staying fairly high given the season. Thus we are thinking rain at
or below 6kft, mix of snow 6-7kft, and snow above 7kft. Amounts
look light with only marginal PWs in the 0,40" vicinity, and
weak dynamics.

After a brief break in disturbances for Wednesday and most of
Thursday, the next, and more powerful, Pacific storm system moves
into the region late Thursday night with a quick exit Friday.
Therefore, both WED and THU look to bring fair and mild weather to
the Borderland before we get a short unsettled period Thursday
night through Friday. With this precipitation opportunity there is
cooler air and thus lower snow levels. However even with this
stronger system, the moisture is very limited and thus the
precipitation will be both limited and light, with the
precipitation mostly over the northern zones.

After the quick exit of this system on Friday, we look to see a
ridge building over the west for a fair weather period.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 13/00Z-14/00Z...
Period will start out with P6SM FEW080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. After 12Z
SCT-BKN040-060 BKN100-120 with isolated -SHRA BKN030-040 in lowlands
north of KSVC-KALM line and some -SHSN possible at elevations above
about 7500-8000ft. Winds generally E to SE at 5-15KTS.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weakening trough will move through northern NM on Sunday which
will bring some isolated to scattered lowland rain showers and
mountain snow showers to area, mainly in the Gila region and Sacs
with a little spilling over onto the Sierra county lowlands.
Temperatures will be about 5 degrees below normal tomorrow and then
start a very slow warming trend going through the middle of next
week. Relative humidities will remain at or above 30 percent for
most of the region during this time with just a few showers possible
off and on starting Tuesday over the Gila region. Winds will remain
at or below 15 mph through midweek before increasing for the end of
the work week. Vent rates will remain poor for the next few days
with improvement expected going into Thursday and Friday.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 35  54  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           32  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              32  53  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              30  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              26  36  24  40 /   0  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   31  50  33  53 /  20  20   0   0
Silver City             33  44  32  51 /  20  20   0   0
Deming                  32  53  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               34  53  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  54  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               31  51  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  49  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  33  56  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  53  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          32  52  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           30  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   31  53  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                33  54  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               31  52  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 29  41  26  47 /   0  20   0   0
Mescalero               30  41  26  46 /   0  20   0   0
Timberon                31  40  25  44 /   0  20   0   0
Winston                 31  44  26  49 /  30  20   0   0
Hillsboro               33  49  30  53 /  20  20   0   0
Spaceport               30  51  31  53 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  45  28  50 /  30  20   0   0
Hurley                  33  45  31  52 /  10  20   0   0
Cliff                   33  47  32  56 /  30  20   0   0
Mule Creek              34  46  34  54 /  30  20   0  10
Faywood                 33  48  32  52 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                  35  54  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 34  53  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          35  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              37  52  38  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/26


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