Area Forecast Discussion
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056
FXUS64 KEPZ 170843
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 AM MDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably hot mostly dry weather
across southern New Mexico and west Texas this week with only
slight chances for mainly mountain area thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Period of rather quiet though seasonably hot weather begins today.
Very slow moving upper low will remain over northern Nevada today
with large area of high pressure aloft centered over Alabama.
Resultant circulation will induce southwesterly mid level flow
with advection of drier air. Concurrently west to southwest winds
will also transport drier air at the surface as lee surface
trough extends into eastern New Mexico. This pattern will lower
water vapor across the CWA causing surface dewpoints to fall below
50 F most areas while precipitable water decreases to below an
inch. These trends will result in warmer dry weather today and
again on Monday.

On Tuesday surface thermal/heat trough associated
thickness/temperature ridge will extend through central New
Mexico inducing low level east/southeast winds across eastern
portions of the CWA with moisture advection pushing dewpoints back
up to near 50 F and making air mass weakly unstable. Thus will
outlook a few storms eastern zones Tuesday but expect middle and
west to remain dry as dewpoints here will be below 40 F supporting
a stable air mass.

Wednesday and beyond upper ridge will remain along/near the west
coast with resultant circulation bringing a subsiding northwest
flow aloft across New Mexico and far west Texas. At low levels
thermal/heat trough will also extend across central New Mexico
most of the period causing occasional southeast winds over eastern
and central portions of the CWA. Boundary layer moisture
transport with this scenario will be shallow due to dry air inflow
and subsidence aloft. Thus precipitable water will remain below
an inch after Wednesday with mostly dry weather expected Wednesday
through next weekend. The combination of subsidence and abundant
sunshine will also keep temperatures around 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 17/12z-18/12z.
VFR conditions with skies SCT-BKN070-100 through 00z with mostly
clear skies after 00z. Surface winds mostly around 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably hot mostly dry weather
with lowering humidity across southern New Mexico and west Texas
this week with only slight chances for mainly mountain area
thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures today warming to around 10
degrees above normal by Thursday. Winds around 5 to 15 mph today
through Tuesday and around 10 to 20 mph Wednesday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           88  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              89  63  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              90  64  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              69  49  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   88  64  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             82  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  89  59  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               87  60  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      91  70  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               92  66  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            93  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              87  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  93  67  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            91  66  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          91  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           91  62  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   92  61  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                90  63  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               91  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 78  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               77  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                76  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 82  53  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               86  58  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               90  62  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            80  49  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  82  56  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   86  52  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              84  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 84  58  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  88  60  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 88  59  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          88  60  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              82  59  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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