Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182019
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
219 PM MDT Sat May 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will combine with low pressure to the
east to bring occasionally windy conditions to southern New Mexico
and west Texas next week. The weather will be mostly dry each day
except for a few thunderstorms over the Gila region on Monday.
Cooler below normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday
otherwise conditions will be seasonably warm next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unusual situation will persist into next week with the circulation
pattern continuing to resemble late winter or early spring.

Unseasonably deep/cold upper low will move into northern California
on Sunday with zonal flow across the southern Rockies. The
westerly winds will bring warmer dry weather to southern New
Mexico and west Texas tomorrow though advection of high level
Pacific moisture will produce increasing cirrus cloud coverage.

On Monday the upper low will move east southeastward across
Arizona before advancing into New Mexico Monday night. Downslope
flow ahead of system followed by divergence and warm advection
aloft will induce strong pressure falls along the front range
with surface low pressure centers over both eastern Colorado and
near Marfa. Low and mid level gradients accordingly strengthen
with inflow of dry air plus diurnal warming resulting in dry lapse
rates from the surface to around 570 mb where wind speeds will be
around 55 kts. These factors all indicate windy conditions on
Monday with wind speeds possibly exceeding warning criteria over a
few areas. The strong dynamics and upward forcing from the upper
system may also induce a few thunderstorms over the Gila area
despite limited moisture. Finally an associated Pacific cold front
will move eastward across the CWA during the late morning and
early afternoon causing temperatures to fall 5 to 10 degrees below
normal Monday and Tuesday.

Upper trough axis will be east of the Rockies by late Tuesday
morning but low and mid level gradients will remain strong as
an unusual secondary upper low develops over Great Basin. Complex
scenario then ensues as first upper low lifts into the northern
plan while Great Basin system drops to the south into northern
Arizona by Wednesday. Concurrently downslope winds plus upper
dynamics will support pressure falls and lee surface trough
development along the front range. These elements will sustain
strong low and mid level gradients into Wednesday as well. Thus
expect windy conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds
around advisory levels much of the CWA. The westerly to southwest
flow will also continue transport of dry air with no rain expected.

A blocking pattern will result in a large trough remaining almost
stationary on an axis from the northern Rockies through the Great
Basin into southern California Thursday through next Saturday.
This pattern will keep southern New Mexico and west Texas in a
deep southwesterly flow producing warmer dry weather later
periods. Gradients will also relax somewhat though passing
disturbances aloft and elevated mixing heights may still support
occasionally breezy conditions Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN200-250 through period. West winds 10-20G30KTS
decreasing between 02Z-04Z to 5-15KTS. After 16Z, winds will be
shifting around to the southwest and increasing again to
15-25G35KTS with some patchy 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving upper low currently entering the west coast will be
the main weather feature for the next several days.  This low will
move into the central Rockies by Tuesday and bring breezy to windy
conditions ahead of it. Warm and dry conditions expected Sunday with
winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph with strongest winds near the
Arizona border and up toward western Sierra county.  Some areas may
experience an hour or two of critical conditions tomorrow.  Stronger
winds are expected for Monday, but there will be higher humidities,
especially west and area mountains.  Will issue a fire weather watch
for lowlands Monday. Another system moves in from the Pacific
Northwest for the middle of the week which will keep winds breezy to
windy through the remainder of the week with additional critical
fire weather days possible. After a temperature cool down Monday
into Tuesday, highs rebound Wednesday. With gusty winds for much of
the period, vent rates will be very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 58  89  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           52  86  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  84  58  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              51  86  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  62  45  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   50  83  57  71 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             45  74  50  60 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                  47  84  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               47  82  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      57  88  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  90  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            57  94  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              52  82  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  91  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            51  87  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  85  65  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           49  84  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  85  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                52  87  59  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  84  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 42  74  50  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               39  73  48  63 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                39  71  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 38  75  43  62 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               47  80  52  68 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport               46  82  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            38  74  43  60 /   0   0   0  30
Hurley                  43  77  48  64 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   38  81  43  66 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              44  76  48  60 /   0   0   0  30
Faywood                 47  78  50  66 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  46  84  52  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 45  84  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          47  84  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  78  52  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz


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