Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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429 FXUS64 KEPZ 020918 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 318 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 A very warm week ahead with breezy to windy afternoons each day. High temperatures will remain around 5 to 8 degrees above normal over this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Afternoon winds will pick up each day through this period, with Sunday through Wednesday seeing the strongest winds. With these winds will come critical fire conditions also. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Not a lot of variance this week as the main narrative is above normal temperatures, breezy to windy afternoons and elevated to critical fire conditions. In the short term, satellite and obs show night time dryline a bit further east than 24 hours ago, extending from about Marfa-Carlsbad and then NNE over far eastern New Mexico. The line has made some minimum movement west early this morning, but should remain well east of the CWA. Aloft, a weak short wave extending from eastern Colorado to SW Arizona will push through this afternoon, with just a few high clouds. Otherwise continued dry west flow aloft through Saturday will keep skies clear with just typical late spring afternoon breezes. Models continue to show short wave sweeping across the central Rockies and out over the central Plains Friday evening which will allow back door cool front southward down the Front Range and eventually pushing the dry-line into the far eastern CWA Friday night and Saturday. Models trending less west push with the consensus showing the dry-line remaining in the eastern CWA, not even reaching the Rio Grande Valley. Left low POPs for thunderstorms in for Hudspeth and Otero Counties, but that may be too optimistic. Next system to watch moves in from the Pacific, over the Great Basin by Sunday. This will increase winds from Sunday on through the end of the forecast period (Wednesday). Strong lee-side low develops Sunday, but is much further north than usual favorable spot (far SE Colorado). This low does reform more in the favorable area Monday and Tuesday, but is not near as deep. Hence winds Sunday through Wednesday will be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts 40-45 mph. Shouldn`t be an issue with advisories, but fire conditions worsen and will approach and probably exceed RFW conditions each of these afternoons. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Other than FEW250 from time to time, SKC expected. W winds near 10kts expected through the AM, except for KELP which remains gusty due to downslope flow until daybreak. Gusts return for all TAF sites for the afternoon up to 20kts before subsiding late in the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Elevated fire conditions expected the remainder of the this week, with conditions likely becoming critical by Sunday into the first half of next week. Typical late Spring breezes, combined with very low humidity, will bring about elevated fire conditions today through Saturday. A brief intrusion from a back door cool front/dryline will move into the Sacramento Mtns Friday night and Saturday for a temporary wind shift to the east/northeast. This could also allow some afternoon cloud buildups Saturday. These very low humidity levels will continue Sunday through Tuesday, but afternoon winds will also become stronger, likely resulting in RFW conditions each afternoon. Overnight recovery each night after Sunday will also remain poor, especially over the lowlands. Min RHs: Lowlands 6-10% through Tuesday. Mountains 9-18% through Tuesday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 87 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 52 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 65 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 78 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 87 49 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 88 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 90 52 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 81 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 88 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 87 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 88 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 47 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 88 48 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 86 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 79 45 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 74 41 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 79 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 85 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 86 46 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 41 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 81 44 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 38 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 36 80 37 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 85 51 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 78 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner