Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172108
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
308 PM MDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will build in from the west and encourage a
warming and drying trend. A few thunderstorms may occur in eastern
Hudspeth County the next two afternoons as moisture creeps in from
the east, but that`s about it. Triple digit afternoon temperatures
will return to the lowlands by midweek and last into the weekend.
By next Sunday moisture may increase area-wide for the return of
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough is passing over the area today and dragging in
a drier air mass. An upper low over the Great Basin will maintain
this dry flow over the Southwest into midweek. Meanwhile an upper
high will build in from the west to increase low and mid level
temps to keep the air mass stable. As a result, we will stay quiet
and welcome back lowland triple digits. Due to the position of
the upper high being centered to our west, moisture will not be
circulating up from the south or southeast anytime soon. An
exception could be the eastern portions of Hudspeth and Otero
Counties Monday and Tuesday as low level moisture pushes in the
next two nights from the east...perhaps enough for a thunderstorm
or two in that area.

Next weekend an upper trough drops southeastward over the central
Rockies which will flatten the upper high and cause it to reform
over the southern states. You know what that means --- mid level
moisture flowing up from the south and increased thunderstorm
potential. Should this occur per the 12z GFS run, next Sunday will
have isolated storms area-wide with better chances thereafter.
But until then --- hot and mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 through period. Winds will generally be variable
AOB 10KTS through 18Z before becoming south to southwest.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture has started to exit the region and will continue
to do so for the next few days with relative humidities falling from
the 20s back toward 10 percent by midweek. Temperatures will be back
on the increase with lowlands reaching above 100 degrees around
Tuesday and continuing through the end of the period as an upper
high builds to the west.  Little moisture will mean at best some
isolated mountain showers and thunderstorms could occur. Winds will
be mainly 5 to 15 mph through Tuesday with 10 to 20 mph winds
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  97  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  93  68  95 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              63  94  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              64  95  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              49  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences   64  93  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  88  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  59  95  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               60  92  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  96  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               66  97  68  98 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            70  97  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  96  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          68  96  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  96  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  97  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  96  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               68  96  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 54  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  30
Mescalero               54  83  56  84 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                54  81  56  83 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 53  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               58  91  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               62  95  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  56  89  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   52  91  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              57  89  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 58  90  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  93  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 59  93  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          60  93  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              59  88  62  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01/26 Fausett/Grzywacz



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