Area Forecast Discussion
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252
FXUS64 KEPZ 182124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture was beginning to move into the region and this
moisture will combine with an upper level storm system to give us
a good chance for rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Rain
may be heavy at times and could produce some isolated flash
flooding. We see lower rain chances for Friday into the coming
weekend. For the start of next week we will see a slight chance
for rain in area mountains. Temperatures will be near or below
average through the weekend and then a little above average to
start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our stint of dry and very warm weather is about to come to an end.
The area of upper level high pressure that had been limiting our
rainfall has moved off to the east. The circulation around the
high will help channel abundant tropical moisture up into
southern New Mexico and far west Texas. At the same time two other
weather features will be approaching the region. The first, is an
upper level trough, dropping through the Great Basin and will help
provide lift to help sustain showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday. The second feature will be a weak
tropical circulation. This features will be moving up from the
south Wednesday into Thursday. This tropical low could also help
enhance the potential for heavy rain, Wednesday night into
Thursday. Precipitable water values (PW) could approach record
values over the next couple of days. Currently our PW values have
crept a little over 1.0 inch, but by Wednesday the values will be
1.3 to 1.4 and Wednesday afternoon into Thursday we could see
values of 1.5 to 1.7. All of these factors will work together so
that we will have the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding
Wednesday afternoon into the day on Thursday. Wide spread rainfall
totals of 1 inch will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with
isolated totals of 2 to 3 inches possible. A flash flood watch
has been issued to cover the potential for flooding. The watch
covers locations west of the Rio Grande for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning and the other half of the watch covers
locations east of the river Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning. One or both parts of the watch may need to be extended
into the day on Thursday.

Later in the day on Thursday the upper level trough to our
northwest will push on through. The timing on this will be
important. Previous runs of the models had the trough moving
through and cutting off the precipitation earlier in the day on
Thursday, but later runs have the trough pushing through in the
evening of Thursday, allowing the moisture and rainfall to linger
further into the day on Thursday. For now the flash flood watch
goes through Thursday morning and on Wednesday we will evaluate if
we need to extend the watch further into Thursday.

By Friday most of the moisture will have been swept to the east,
but we will continue to see just enough moisture to give us a
continued slight chance for thunderstorms. We will slowly dry out
so that by the end of the weekend we will see our rain chances
confined to area mountains and if the GFS is right, we won`t see
any rain chances at all.

Looking at temperatures, as the moisture and rain chances increase
we will see our high temperatures decrease. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be near seasonal averages, but then as all the
moisture and clouds and rain arrive later Wednesday into Thursday
we will see our high temperatures on Thursday running 5 to 10
degrees below average. Then as the moisture clears out we will see
our highs for Friday through the weekend running a few degrees
below average. Finally for the start of the next week we will see
our highs running a few degrees above average as we continue to
dry out.



&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
Moisture to increase through the period with SHRA and TSRA
increasing in intensity and coverage especially after 18Z. SKY: gnly
SCT-BKN050 120 AND 200 with isold SHRA TSRA 00Z-06Z THEN SCT 06Z-15Z
AND SCT-NUM THEREAFTER. In hvr activity expect BKN-OVC030-040 3 SM
TSRA WIND VRB 25G35KT tops 250-300. WINDS GNLY ENE-SSE 8-13 KTS.
GUSTY NR SHWRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west Texas
and this will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight through Thursday. Very heavy rains may fall over a few
locations resulting in flash flooding. High pressure will bring
seasonably warm drier weather Friday through next weekend. Surface
winds will be mostly around 5 to 15 mph except for stronger gusts
near thunderstorms. Min RH values will range from 25% to 35% Tuesday
increasing to 45% to 55% Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  87  67  79 /  40  50  70  60
Sierra Blanca           64  84  62  77 /  20  40  60  60
Las Cruces              67  86  63  76 /  40  50  70  60
Alamogordo              66  85  63  77 /  20  50  70  60
Cloudcroft              48  67  47  60 /  40  70  80  60
Truth or Consequences   66  84  61  75 /  20  60  70  40
Silver City             61  81  57  71 /  40  70  70  50
Deming                  66  85  61  75 /  40  60  70  50
Lordsburg               66  83  61  75 /  30  60  70  50
West El Paso Metro      70  86  66  77 /  40  50  70  60
Dell City               66  88  64  82 /  20  40  60  60
Fort Hancock            68  88  65  80 /  20  50  70  60
Loma Linda              65  83  61  74 /  20  50  70  60
Fabens                  68  87  65  79 /  40  50  70  60
Santa Teresa            68  86  65  77 /  40  50  70  60
White Sands HQ          67  86  64  77 /  30  50  70  60
Jornada Range           67  85  63  76 /  30  50  70  60
Hatch                   67  86  63  77 /  30  50  70  50
Columbus                68  86  62  76 /  40  60  70  60
Orogrande               68  87  65  78 /  20  50  70  60
Mayhill                 53  77  54  68 /  40  70  80  60
Mescalero               54  77  53  67 /  40  70  80  60
Timberon                53  76  52  66 /  40  70  80  60
Winston                 56  80  53  70 /  40  70  70  50
Hillsboro               63  83  59  73 /  40  70  70  50
Spaceport               65  84  60  75 /  20  50  70  40
Lake Roberts            54  80  51  70 /  40  70  70  50
Hurley                  61  81  57  72 /  40  70  70  50
Cliff                   52  83  57  75 /  40  70  70  50
Mule Creek              53  81  57  73 /  30  60  70  50
Faywood                 63  82  59  72 /  40  70  70  50
Animas                  66  82  61  76 /  40  60  70  50
Hachita                 66  84  59  75 /  40  60  70  50
Antelope Wells          64  80  59  73 /  40  60  70  60
Cloverdale              62  76  57  70 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for NMZ409>417.

     Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for NMZ401>408.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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