Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

636
FXUS64 KEPZ 171001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
401 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier weather to southern New Mexico and
west Texas today with temperatures not as cool. Weak disturbances
aloft may bring a few rain showers across portions of the region
tonight and again on Monday with temperatures remaining cooler
than normal. Tuesday will again be dry with milder temperatures.
An upper level trough of low pressure will produce rain showers
and a few thunderstorms over much of the Borderland Wednesday
through Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Westerly winds
should bring seasonably warm dry weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure should bring mostly dry weather today across
southern New Mexico and west Texas though low level easterly
winds will sustain inflow of modified Canadian air. Thus high
temperatures today and Monday will remain around 10 degrees below
normal. Weak disturbances aloft may also induce a few rain or
mountain snow showers tonight and Monday mainly southeastern
areas.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night ridge aloft will move across the
southwestern United States with attendant subsidence and more
abundant sunshine supporting dry weather and some warming. Low
level easterly winds will still keep temperatures a little below
normal for yet another day however.

Upper low will move eastward through central California and
across Nevada and Utah Wednesday through Friday with an associated
vorticity axis rotating around it across Arizona into New Mexico
and west Texas. Associated upward forcing may prove sufficient to
generate isolated to scattered convection Wednesday through
Friday. One forecasting dilemma is both the GFS and ECMWF develop
dry slotting with this feature and thus produce relatively limited
rainfall much of the Wednesday through Friday period. In contrast
the NBM predicts scattered to numerous storm coverage. At this
time will compromise between comparatively dry forecast from
deterministic models and rather wet NBM outlook.

In either case latest solutions indicate westerly winds will
bring seasonably warm dry weather next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 17/12z-18/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR visibility and ceilings in fog until
15z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected with skies generally SCT-
BKN060-100. Wind speeds mostly from 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring drier weather to southern New Mexico and
west Texas today with temperatures not as cool. Weak disturbances
aloft may bring a few rain showers across portions of the region
tonight and again on Monday with temperatures remaining cooler
than normal. Tuesday will again be dry with milder temperatures.
An upper level trough of low pressure will produce rain showers
and a few thunderstorms over much of the Borderland Wednesday
through Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Westerly winds
should bring seasonably warm dry weather next weekend. Wind speeds
mostly around 5-15 mph today through Wednesday and around 15 to
25 mph Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures around 10 degrees
below normal today and Monday and around 5 degrees below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  41  63  41 /   0  10  20   0
Sierra Blanca           55  36  57  35 /   0  10  30   0
Las Cruces              58  36  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              58  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              39  24  42  26 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences   58  36  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             52  35  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  60  34  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               60  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      59  43  63  42 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City               58  34  61  33 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock            61  39  64  38 /   0  10  30   0
Loma Linda              53  36  58  36 /   0  10  20   0
Fabens                  60  40  63  39 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Teresa            59  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  39  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  34  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   60  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                60  39  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               57  34  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  27  50  29 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero               48  29  52  30 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                45  26  48  26 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                 52  26  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               56  33  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               59  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  27  58  28 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  54  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   60  30  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              58  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 54  34  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  36  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 60  33  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          60  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  39  61  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.