Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131038
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
338 AM MST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds will diminish this morning as a storm system exits
the state. Temperatures will be colder today as a cold dry air
mass flows into the area. Dry conditions with gradually warming
temperatures will occur Friday and Saturday. A weak upper level
system will bring a slight chance of rain and mountain snow on
Sunday and Sunday night. Another system will come quickly behind
it for another chance of rain and mountain snow on Tuesday. Dry
conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected for the latter
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system continues on a southeasterly
track through New Mexico and into Texas this morning. Strong
northwesterly winds associated with the low remain possible early
this morning but should start to diminish by sunrise and be below
advisory criteria by 8 am. A slight chance of snow showers and
flurries remains possible for the Sacramento Mountains this
morning until about mid day. Accumulations are expected to be
light and generally under an inch.

For the rest of southern New Mexico and far west Texas conditions
will be dry and colder as the upper low exits the region and is
replaced by a colder dry continental air mass. A ridge of high
pressure will dominate the weather pattern with dry conditions,
light winds and gradually warming temperatures through Friday.
Skies should be clear through Friday but increasing high level
moisture will bring partly cloudy conditions from variable high
clouds on Saturday.

The high pressure ridge will shift to the east by Saturday
evening. A weak upper level trough will approach the area on
Sunday. This system will tap sub tropical moisture to generate a
slight chance of lowland rain and high elevation snow showers by
late Sunday. Current model runs still differ on intensity and
timing of this system but are close enough to get a general sense
of this event. Generally the air mass will be fairly warm with
snow chances limited to the higher mountains. The system is weak
which will limit shower intensities and coverage to generally
widespread levels with light amounts of precip. Very little
cooling will occur with this system, keeping temperatures
generally within seasonal averages. The short wave trough will
exit the region by early Monday.

Another stronger system will quickly follow behind the first
system on Tuesday. Long range models still have significant
differences on timing and intensity with this system with the GFS
model being slower than the more progressive ECMWF model.
Generally, rain and mountain snow chances will be greatest Tuesday
afternoon and evening. If the slower solution turns out to be
correct, precipitation could linger into early Wednesday. Overall,
this winter storm system is expected to be stronger and more
capable of producing rain and mountain snow with some decent
accumulations by late Tuesday.

After this system exits the area, the local weather pattern will
return to a drier regime with a westerly zonal flow keeping
temperatures seasonal to a few degrees above normal for late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 13/12Z-14/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period...with strong
winds at local terminals early this morning. Winds will begin 290-
320 at generally 25G30KT. A few wind gusts as high as 50 kts
possible over higher terrain especially over the Sacramento
Mountains. Winds diminish after 15Z, weakening to 340-010 at 10-
15KT. Skies SKC with FEW070-080 this afternoon. Mid level turbulence
possible today as the polar jet extends southward over the
southern Rockies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will diminish this afternoon from the gusty conditions present
early this morning. Quiet weather is expected this weekend with near
normal temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions. Min RHs will
be mostly in the teens and 20s through Saturday and then rise into
the 30s and 40s Sunday and Monday as moisture slowly returns. Vent
rates will be fair-good Thursday and then drop back to poor for the
weekend as winds aloft and mixing heights both decrease. Our next
chance of precipitation will be Sunday night into Monday as a weak
subtropical system may help bring additional moisture to the area
and allow for lowland rains and light mountain snow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 27  54  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           24  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              23  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              23  54  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              17  41  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   23  52  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             23  51  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  21  54  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               23  55  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      29  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               23  56  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            25  57  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              26  50  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  25  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            24  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          26  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           22  52  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   22  54  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                24  54  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               24  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 21  50  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               20  48  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                19  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 17  51  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               22  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               22  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            16  53  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  20  52  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   18  58  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              21  55  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 23  51  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  23  56  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 20  54  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          24  55  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              27  54  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ409-412-413.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ402-408-
     414>417.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for TXZ419>422.

&&

$$

04/30


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