Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161211
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
511 AM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow aloft will continue today and Thursday with some
higher clouds moving through. Temperatures will remain well above
normal. A winter storm rapidly moves into the Borderland Friday
with scattered mountain snow showers and isolated lowland rain
showers. Winds will become quite gusty in the afternoon, making it
feel much cooler than the previous days. Ridge of high pressure
builds in over the Desert Southwest for the weekend, allowing the
skies to clear, though temperatures will still be a bit below
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We should see a couple of nice days before our next winter storm
moves in on Friday. A weakening upper low over southern Colorado
brought a band of clouds across the area last night and early this
morning but does not look like it produce much, if any,
precipitation. Another small upper low just west of the Baja will
sweep across the CWA throughout Thursday, but again just expecting
some higher clouds with this feature. Temperatures both days
should be about 5-7 degrees above normal.

Friday...next storm currently well off the northern California
coast will ride over the top of the eastern Pacific ridge and down
to near the Four Corners area early Friday morning, and then over
the Texas Panhandle Friday evening. Scattered mountains showers
should develop early Friday morning, and then as the cold front
pushes through in the afternoon, some isolated showers over the
lowlands near the front. Expect snow levels up around 7000 feet to
start off Friday morning, but then fall to around 5000 feet as the
upper trough and surface front usher in cooler air. Mountains
could see 2-4 inches of snow...with highest amounts along
west/northwest facing slopes. Probably of more impact to the
entire area will be winds. Strong cross mountain flow and approach
of the upper low will produce strong cyclogenesis over southeast
Colorado Friday morning and then push off southeast over the
Southern Plains through Friday night. The combination of moderate
pressure gradient and nicely timed mid level max winds, should
push surface winds into low end wind advisory criteria (25-35
mph).

Saturday and Sunday...upper ridge builds in over the Desert
Southwest behind the exiting low. Very little high level moisture
moving through the ridge so both days should see plenty of
sunshine. Temperatures will lag some, still below normal Saturday
but then warming a bit above normal Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...GFS and ECMWF still differing some for this
period. GFS brings next Pacific trough to the Four Corners Monday
afternoon and then into west Texas Tuesday morning. This would
give the area, mostly the mountains, a slight chance of showers.
The ECMWF is slower, bringing the trough to the Four Corners
Monday evening and then over west Texas Tuesday evening. The
slower movement would suggest a better chance of showers. For now,
strong winds look like a good bet Monday. Will keep POPs on the
low end for later Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/12Z-17/12Z...
P6SM FEW070 SCT-BKN250 through most of the period. Winds will be
light this morning, then becoming west 7-12 kts this afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday as westerly
flow aloft dominates the weather pattern. Min RHs will generally
remain in the 30s through the weekend; perhaps lowering some by
the end of the weekend. A winter storm moves in Friday. This will
produce strong winds of 25-35 mph across the fire zones. Scattered
showers will also develop over the mountains, while over the
lowlands just isolated showers are possible as the surface front
moves through Friday afternoon. Snow levels will fall to around
5000 ft by Friday evening with 2-4 inches are possible over the
mountains. Saturday and Sunday will clear off as the storm exits,
with temperatures back above normal by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  38  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  37  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              60  36  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              40  28  45  29 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   59  35  58  38 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             54  35  57  37 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  62  34  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               59  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      63  40  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            65  39  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  40  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  64  39  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            63  37  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          62  38  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  34  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  35  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  36  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               62  36  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 51  33  56  37 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               48  31  53  34 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                48  31  52  33 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 55  29  56  34 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               59  34  60  38 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               60  34  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  29  56  33 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  55  35  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   57  29  59  34 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              55  31  57  38 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 57  35  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  35  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 61  34  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  36  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              58  38  62  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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