Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 162107
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry west to southwest flow aloft will persist through this week to
next weekend. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacramento
Mountains Monday could produce a few thunderstorms. Otherwise
expect very few clouds and above normal temperatures over the next
week. Triple digit high temperatures are possible across desert
areas Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like typical early summer weather for the CWA over the next
week as main storm track remains well north of the area. This
means we remain in weak flow from the southern branch of the jet
over our area, resulting in dry west to southwest flow. For the
week ahead as a whole, this will give us very few clouds and above
normal temperatures.

In the short term, satellite imagery shows considerable CU
development over the mountains and Sierra County. Some virga and a
few light rain showers are likely with these over the next 3 to 5
hours. RAP and HRRR continue to show modest cells over this area
into early evening hours, so kept low POPs in for the northern
tier of zones. Low DCAPE values would suggest not much downburst
potential, but dewpoint depressions suggest winds of 40-50 mph
possible this evening, even under just light showers.

For tomorrow, models continue to show just a bit higher dewpoints
over the northern zones and especially the Sac Mtns. So left a
low POP in for the Sacs Monday afternoon. High DCAPE values show
some potential for near severe wind gusts if any storms can
generate. Both NAM12/GFS show dryline just east of CWA Monday
afternoon and drifting back in late Monday night for a few
showers. Ignored this for now but will have to continue to watch
that situation.

Otherwise, the remainder of the week should be dry with very few
clouds. Slightly above normal temperatures through Wednesday will
warm further Thursday into the weekend, with triple digit highs
likely for many of the lowland sites.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 with some isolated -TSRA BKN060-080 over area
mountains and possibly near KTCS through 02Z.  Afterwards, skies
becoming SKC-SCT250. Winds generally west to southwest 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally a west to southwest flow over the region will keep
temperatures near to slightly above normal with low relative
humidities in the 5 to 15 percent range, slightly higher in the
highest elevations. Almost every day for the upcoming week will have
breezy conditions, but looks like critical speeds will not be met,
at least not for 3 hours any day. Besides some isolated showers and
thunderstorms into the early evening, little to no precipitation is
expected. Vent rates with the breezy west to southwest winds will
remain very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  94  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              65  96  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              65  98  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              43  73  45  71 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   67  96  64  95 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             60  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  62  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               62  95  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      71  97  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               66 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            68 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  71  99  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  96  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          70  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           63  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   63  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                67  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  96  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  86  52  83 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero               46  85  50  82 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                45  83  49  81 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                 48  91  47  89 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               61  93  59  95 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               62  95  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  91  51  91 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  58  90  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   45  93  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              45  91  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  61  97  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 60  96  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          62  96  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              59  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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