Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 PM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and cloudy weather continues for a few more days. By Friday
temperatures increase as drier air moves in, but still around 10
degrees below normal. Another weak cold front moves in on Saturday,
but it won`t hurt temperatures much although breezy conditions
will be back in the picture. We finally get more drier and warmer
air next week as the upper trough moves east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low remains in the Arizona-Utah border which will keep the
moisture and the stratus cloud deck over us. Visible satellite
shows the cloud deck still over most of the region with a few
breaks downstream of area mountains. This upper low and a surface
high pressure to our east keep us with dry cold air over the
Borderland over the next few days. Models keep showing
precipitation on the short term, but if there is any it should be
light as the environment is very stable and there are poor
dynamics for the development of significant rain. This morning`s
sounding had 0 J/kg CAPE and LI`s near 10, not good for convective
activity. I kept mostly slight chances of rain as models
indicated it could happen, but if it does it would be very light
amounts.

Drier and warmer air is expected to move in on Friday ahead of
another cold front. This is due to the development of another
upper low off the coast of California, which will push that dry
air over our area and give us a chance to a few cloud breaks.
However, cooler temperatures persist as the easterly flow does not
stop, but we will be around 10 degrees below normal.

A weak cold front sweeps in on Saturday. Breezy conditions are
expected with this system, as well as a slightly higher amount of
POP`s in the area. However, models disagree in the placement of
the precipitation and it will be hard to tell which areas will be
affected. This should not be of surprise as both the GFS and ECMWF
have been having trouble discerning between the dense cloud layer
and areas of actual precip. The GFS keeps bringing rain while the
ECMWF shows a drier pattern, which may have better chances to pan
out. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees with the front, but
we will remain around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Early next week the omega block in the Pacific finally breaks.
Therefore, the upper low in the West Coast moves east. The
subsequent zonal pattern allows dry and warm air to set back in
the Desert Southwest and bring temperatures to near normal as the
clouds should move away from the region.



&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z... Low ceilings will
continue through the period, with intermittent periods of MVFR. P6SM
FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN025-040 through period with patchy areas of
BKN015-025, especially on eastern side of area mountains. Isolated
lowland -SHRA and mountain -SHRASN are expected through 10Z for far
eastern portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties. Shower activity
will focus along the Sacramento mountains east slopes.  East to
northeast winds of 10-20G30KTS will continue through period with
highest speeds along west facing Mtn. slopes, Hudspeth county and
west of the Continental divide near KLSB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread cloud cover will continue across the area, driven by
southeast flow between upper level low pressure over the four
corners and high pressure aloft over the gulf states.  Western zones
may try to break out of the cloud cover Friday afternoon, with
partly cloudy skies expected.  A weaker back door cold front
approaches Saturday from the northeast.  This feature will
reintroduce more moisture and clouds as a result, with chances for
light rain showers areawide Sunday.  We will start to dry out early
next week, as another low pressure system moves over the four
corners and brings southwest flow back into our picture.  Highs will
continue well below through at least early next week.  The cloud
cover and cold low level air in place, will maintain Mixing heights
generally below 3000 ft thru Fri morning.  As clouds begin to break
up for our western Fire zones Friday afternoon, mixing heights may
reach 5000 ft in the Gila region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  56  48  64 /  20  30  10  10
Sierra Blanca           41  54  42  61 /  30  40  20  10
Las Cruces              42  54  44  62 /  20  30  20  10
Alamogordo              40  55  44  63 /  30  40  30  20
Cloudcroft              32  44  35  49 /  40  50  40  30
Truth or Consequences   42  55  44  62 /  30  30  20  20
Silver City             38  48  41  55 /  20  20  10  20
Deming                  42  54  44  62 /  20  20  10  20
Lordsburg               43  57  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      45  56  47  63 /  20  30  10   0
Dell City               40  54  45  63 /  30  40  30  20
Fort Hancock            45  60  48  66 /  30  30  20  10
Loma Linda              39  50  43  59 /  20  40  20  10
Fabens                  44  59  47  65 /  20  30  10   0
Santa Teresa            43  55  45  63 /  20  30  10   0
White Sands HQ          44  54  46  62 /  20  40  20  10
Jornada Range           40  54  45  62 /  20  30  20  20
Hatch                   43  55  45  64 /  30  30  20  20
Columbus                43  58  46  63 /  20  20   0  10
Orogrande               43  55  45  62 /  30  40  20  20
Mayhill                 29  46  38  55 /  50  50  30  20
Mescalero               33  48  39  56 /  40  40  30  30
Timberon                32  46  39  54 /  40  50  30  30
Winston                 36  49  36  57 /  30  30  20  20
Hillsboro               39  51  41  60 /  30  30  20  20
Spaceport               39  54  43  62 /  20  30  20  20
Lake Roberts            36  52  36  60 /  20  20  20  20
Hurley                  39  50  40  57 /  30  20  20  20
Cliff                   39  56  37  66 /   0  10   0  10
Mule Creek              38  56  38  64 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 40  50  42  58 /  30  30  20  20
Animas                  43  59  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 42  56  43  62 /   0  10   0  10
Antelope Wells          41  60  43  62 /   0  10   0  10
Cloverdale              40  58  44  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29-Crespo/22-Tripoli


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