Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180923
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 AM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will cover southern New Mexico and west Texas
resulting in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
region today and tonight. A few storms may produce very heavy
rainfalls...strong gusty winds and hail. High pressure aloft will
bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather next week with a few
mainly mountain area thunderstorms still possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moist unstable air remains over southern New Mexico and west Texas
with surface dewpoints above 50 F and precipitable water around
1.2 to 1.5 inches today. Diurnal heating plus low level moisture
will make air mass moderately unstable this afternoon with
MUCAPE`s expected to be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg most locations
while DCAPE`s should exceed 1000 J/kg. Upper dynamics will remain
weak but expect upslope flow and warm above normal afternoon
temperatures will initiate updrafts around higher terrain by early
afternoon with further heating plus outflows causing activity to
spread. In addition low level convergence will exist near surface
trough axis while models hint at possible weak short waves
entering the CWA from the north. These factors should generate
generally scattered convection most of the region. Slow storm
movement and abundant moisture indicate a few storms may produce
heavy rains while CAPE and DCAPE values also suggest risk of hail
and strong downbursts.

By Sunday the CWA will be located between upper high over
southern California and broad troughing over the plains. Resultant
circulation will include a deep north to northwest flow aloft
which will transport drier more stable continental air into the
region. Thus by Sunday afternoon precipitable water will have
fallen to only around .5 to .75 inch while surface dewpoints
decrease to less than 50 F. So expect mostly dry weather on
Sunday with subsidence and abundant sunshine pushing high
temperatures to near 100 over many lowland locations.

Sunday night a cold front will move east to west across the CWA
with the easterly flow behind it advecting slightly cooler but
also a more moist air mass. Dewpoints will therefore rise above 50
F again with precipitable water increasing to around an inch on
Monday. However upper high center will become located near New
Mexico-Arizona border area on Monday before drifting into central
New Mexico on Tuesday. Thereafter this feature will meander around
the vicinity of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico through
the remainder of the week. This scenario will produce mostly dry
weather due to persistent subsidence aloft but sufficient
moisture will also flow into the region at low levels to support a
few mainly mountain area thunderstorms most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 18/12z-19/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility due to showers
and thunderstorms mainly from 20z to 06z. Several storms may
produce wind gusts to 50 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
with skies SCT-BKN060-080 with widespread ceilings above 10,000
feet. Surface wind speeds around 5-15KTS outside of thunderstorms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will cover southern New Mexico and west Texas
resulting in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
region today and tonight. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding over
isolated locations.  High pressure aloft will bring seasonably
warm mostly dry weather next week with a few mainly mountain area
thunderstorms still possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  76 100  75 /  30  30   0   0
Sierra Blanca           94  71  96  69 /  30  30  20  20
Las Cruces              95  70  99  70 /  30  30   0   0
Alamogordo              93  70  98  69 /  30  30   0   0
Cloudcroft              73  58  77  50 /  50  30   0  20
Truth or Consequences   95  72  99  69 /  40  20   0   0
Silver City             88  64  92  62 /  40  30   0   0
Deming                  96  71  99  70 /  20  30   0   0
Lordsburg               95  71  98  70 /  20  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro      95  76  99  74 /  30  30   0   0
Dell City               98  73 100  71 /  40  30   0  20
Fort Hancock            97  74  99  73 /  30  30  10   0
Loma Linda              91  71  94  68 /  30  30   0   0
Fabens                  96  74  99  72 /  30  30   0   0
Santa Teresa            95  74  99  72 /  30  30   0   0
White Sands HQ          94  72  99  71 /  30  30   0   0
Jornada Range           96  70  99  68 /  30  30   0   0
Hatch                   97  71 101  69 /  30  30   0   0
Columbus                96  73  99  73 /  20  30   0   0
Orogrande               94  74  99  72 /  30  30   0   0
Mayhill                 80  62  85  56 /  50  30   0  20
Mescalero               82  62  86  57 /  50  30   0  20
Timberon                80  61  83  57 /  50  30   0  20
Winston                 87  63  91  58 /  50  30   0   0
Hillsboro               92  68  96  64 /  50  30   0   0
Spaceport               95  70  99  67 /  30  30   0   0
Lake Roberts            88  60  90  56 /  50  30   0   0
Hurley                  90  66  93  63 /  30  30   0   0
Cliff                   94  66  97  62 /  40  30   0   0
Mule Creek              92  67  95  64 /  40  20   0   0
Faywood                 91  68  94  65 /  40  30   0   0
Animas                  95  71  99  69 /  20  30   0   0
Hachita                 94  71  98  70 /  20  30   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  69  95  67 /  20  40  10   0
Cloverdale              89  67  92  64 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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