Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132217
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
317 PM MST Sun Jan 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A few low pressure systems will pass by to our north the next
several days, with any resulting precipitation limited to mainly
the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains. Otherwise temperatures
will begin to warm to above normal late week before dropping off
again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low over northern AZ continues to weaken and will
shortly dissipate. Meanwhile a minor upper ridge will build over
NM & TX Monday & Tuesday in response to a more significant upper
low moving into CA. This system will bottom out and rotate into
the Great Basin toward midweek, sending no more than a minor
impulse our way. There will be enough moisture to wring out some
showers over the Gila region Tuesday night and Wednesday, but
amounts will be light. Otherwise it will merely slow down our
warming trend.

Max temps should peak Friday at about 5 to 8 degrees above normal
as westerly flow increases and surface troughing intensifies in
the southern plains. Breezy to low-end windy conditions are
expected Friday, but less than indicated by earlier model runs.
Meanwhile a healthy trough will drop southeastward into the plains
states which will push much cooler air behind a side door front into
our CWA for Saturday. It could be 15 degrees cooler than on
Friday...from above normal to below normal...and still breezy for
a chilling effect. Not much moisture expected but perhaps a few
showers will occur over the Gila region and the Sacs.

Beyond this forecast period (a week from Tuesday) the models have
been toying with a colder system than next Saturday`s, and
possibly wet as well. Should it materialize the trough`s trajectory
will determine moisture input for our area, which would be
impactful considering the projected cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/00Z-15/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN100-120 through much of the period with
gradually thinning lower clouds after 18Z. Some areas, especially on
eastern mountain slopes could see BKN020-030 between 12Z-18Z. Winds
generally northeast to southeast AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fairly active pattern over the coming week, but it will result in
just some isolated to widely scattered showers, mainly over the Gila
region and far southwest NM.  Temperatures will be slowly warming
over the week with highs getting slightly above normal by Tuesday
and continuing through Friday.  Relative humidities will be falling
but should remain above 20 percent through the week. Winds will
generally be light through Thursday but become breezy to windy
Friday into Saturday. Vent rates will continue to remain poor to
fair for the first part of the week before improving late.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 35  56  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           30  51  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              33  54  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  39  27  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   33  52  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             32  50  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  33  54  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               35  55  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               30  52  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            34  56  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              31  50  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  34  57  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  55  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          33  53  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           30  54  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   33  55  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                34  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               32  52  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 26  46  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  45  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                25  43  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               30  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               31  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            28  49  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  31  51  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   32  55  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              34  53  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 32  51  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  35  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 33  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          34  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  55  34  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett/26 Grzywacz


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