Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 141108
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
508 AM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One more seasonal day today, before big changes come to our
weather. We will see slightly below average high temperatures
today, with a slight chance of rain in area mountains. Late
tonight cold air will plunge into the region, dropping Monday and
Tuesday`s high temperatures 20 degrees or more below average.
There will be a chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers
Monday night and Tuesday. For the middle and end of the week, our
highs will run 10 to 20 degrees below average with a continued
slight chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A taste of winter will pay a visit to the region starting tonight.
For today we will see our high temperatures running just a couple
of degrees below average. An upper level storm system over Arizona
will continue to give us a slight chance for rain in area
mountains and along the AZ/NM border. Then late tonight into the
morning hours on Monday, a strong cold front will push across the
region. And when I say strong, I mean strong. Our high
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will run 20 to 30 degrees
below average. We could set some record low max temperatures both
days. The front will usher in the first freezing temperatures for
the Sacramento Mountains, so a freeze warning will be issued to
cover that. The front will also usher in breezy to windy east
winds. We will see generally breezy winds (15 to 25 mph) east of
area mountains and windy conditions (20 to 30 mph) west of area
mountains. And if the colder temperatures and strong winds aren`t
enough, with the upper level trough to our west we will see an
increase chance for precipitation late Monday into Tuesday. As
the circulation around the trough brings somewhat moist air up
from the south, this air will rise up over the cold air pushing in
behind the front at the surface. This lifting motion will give us
lots of clouds and a chance for precipitation. Freezing
temperature will be likely in area mountains again on Monday
night, so snow, especially above 8,000 feet will be possible
Monday night into Tuesday. Right now snowfall totals don`t look to
amount to more than an inch or two.

For Wednesday through Friday we will see our high temperatures
running "only" 10 to 20 degrees below average. At the same time
the upper level trough will continue to lurk just to our west and
that will continue to give a chance for precipitation through at
least the end of the week. With our slightly warmer temperatures,
it looks like the threat for accumulating snow will diminish as we
move toward the end of the work week. Both the extended GFS and
ECMWF indicate that another back door cold front will arrive
sometime on Saturday, which will continue our stretch of below
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/12Z-15/12Z
We will see VFR conditions for most of the day today. For most of
the area we will see FEW070 and maybe a ceiling of BKN250. The
one exception will be the Gila Region where we will see ceilings
of BKN040-070 for most of the day. But late tonight a strong cold
front will begin to move across the area. This front will bring
our winds around to the east by late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Low ceilings will develop in the Sacramento mountains
where we could see IFR or even LIFR ceilings, we could also see
some light snow above 8,000 feet. FYI our clouds and precipitation
chances will be on the increase as we head through Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see a pleasant day today, with slightly below average
temperatures, generally light winds and min RH`s above 40%. But
tonight will bring big changes, as a strong cold front moves
across the region. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will run 20
to 30 degrees below average. We will see gusty east winds,
especially on the west slopes of area mountains. In addition we
will see a chance of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday with
light snow possible above 8,000 feet. Min RH`s for Monday and
Tuesday will run above 50 and 60% respectively. We will be a
little warmer for the end of the week, but we will continue to see
a slight chance for precipitation. Min RH`s will continue to run
above 50% through the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  46  51  39 /   0   0  10  30
Sierra Blanca           74  39  46  32 /   0   0  10  30
Las Cruces              69  45  52  37 /   0   0  10  30
Alamogordo              71  45  53  37 /   0  10  20  30
Cloudcroft              49  30  35  26 /  10  10  30  30
Truth or Consequences   70  41  47  36 /  10  20  20  30
Silver City             62  43  48  38 /  20   0  30  30
Deming                  69  46  53  38 /   0   0  10  30
Lordsburg               67  47  56  40 /  20   0  20  30
West El Paso Metro      72  46  50  38 /   0   0  10  30
Dell City               75  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            77  45  50  39 /   0   0  10  30
Loma Linda              67  37  45  31 /   0   0  10  30
Fabens                  74  45  50  39 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Teresa            71  46  52  38 /   0   0  10  30
White Sands HQ          71  45  52  38 /   0   0  20  30
Jornada Range           69  46  52  38 /   0   0  10  30
Hatch                   71  46  54  37 /   0   0  20  30
Columbus                70  48  54  39 /   0   0  10  30
Orogrande               71  44  51  37 /   0   0  10  30
Mayhill                 60  28  34  26 /  10  20  30  30
Mescalero               57  30  39  27 /  10  20  30  30
Timberon                57  31  37  27 /  10  10  30  30
Winston                 64  35  45  30 /  20  20  30  30
Hillsboro               68  40  51  33 /  20  10  20  30
Spaceport               70  43  53  36 /   0  10  10  30
Lake Roberts            62  38  50  30 /  20  10  30  30
Hurley                  64  42  51  39 /  20   0  20  30
Cliff                   66  43  60  38 /  20   0  30  30
Mule Creek              63  45  57  40 /  30   0  40  30
Faywood                 65  42  51  37 /  10   0  20  30
Animas                  67  49  57  40 /  10   0  20  30
Hachita                 68  45  54  38 /   0   0  10  30
Antelope Wells          67  47  56  39 /   0   0  20  30
Cloverdale              62  47  56  37 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for
     NMZ414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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