Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 192036
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
136 PM MST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be warming up over the next couple of days with
highs into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Winds will also
return on Monday ahead of a strong cold front which will drop
temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees for Tuesday with just some
minimal warming expected for the remainder of the week. Besides
some isolated mountain snow showers Tuesday, generally dry
conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
While we will be in a fairly active pattern over the coming week,
little if any precipitation will result. Period will start with
upper ridge moving over the Rockies and helping to warm
temperatures back above normal for next couple of days with highs
Monday into the lower to mid 70s some areas. Record high for KELP
Monday is 78, and don`t think that is in jeopardy, but could be
within a few degrees. Winds Monday afternoon will be the biggest
concern of the forecast period. Upper trough will be entering into
the Four Corners region with surface low developing over eastern
CO/northeast NM with surface trough extending south through
eastern CWA. Southwest winds look to be at least close to advisory
criteria around 25-35G50MPH for most of CWA. Winds will be more
southwesterly than yesterday with warmer temperatures, so think
there will be a better chance for some blowing dust and included
that in forecast for the afternoon hours.

As with any big warmup this time of the year, what goes up, must
come down. A strong cold front will push through Monday night into
Tuesday and drop high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees with most
lowland areas only in the lower 50s Tuesday. Good agreement among
models that although this will be a strong front, the moisture
associated with system will get squeezed out over UT, CO and
northern NM. Kept in the low pops in the mountains, but any snow
that does fall will likely not accumulate too much.

Upper flow will remain N to NW for the remainder of the forecast
period which will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.
A couple of weak disturbances may bring some breezy days but
without any precipitation and plenty of sunshine. For the longer
range, operational GFS was warmer than it`s ensembles which closer
resemble EC, so went with the cooler solution for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Light and
variable winds embedded in weak south flow. Skies P6SM SKC-FEW250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected the next few days as an upper level ridge
quickly warms us back up, with temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer
than average by Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible on Monday afternoon, focusing on far west Texas. A
tightening pressure gradient Monday afternoon will allow for 25-30
mph winds and relative humidities to drop into the upper teens. A
backdoor cold front arrives on Tuesday which may bring some light
snow showers over area mountains but most areas will remain dry.
Near normal temperatures, no significant winds, and continued dry
weather Tuesday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 30  64  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           30  63  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              26  62  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              27  60  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  49  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   29  61  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             31  60  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  24  62  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               27  64  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      28  63  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               25  66  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            28  68  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              29  58  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  26  66  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            26  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          27  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           23  62  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   23  63  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                26  62  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               25  63  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               27  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                29  58  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 25  58  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               26  60  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               24  62  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            21  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  26  59  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   20  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              19  59  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 27  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  27  65  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 25  63  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          27  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              29  62  38  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/30


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