Area Forecast Discussion
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751
FXUS64 KEPZ 131025
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
325 AM MST Sun Jan 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing upper disturbance will combine with a weak cold front
to bring slightly cooler temperatures to southern New Mexico and
west Texas today along with slight chances of rain and snow
showers mainly around the higher mountains. High pressure will
produce dry weather and near normal temperatures on Monday.
Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday through Friday but upper
disturbances will cause  a few rain or snow showers each day
across the region with most of the precipitation falling around
mountain locations. High pressure should bring dry weather and
near normal temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively active circulation pattern expected this week though
impacts will remain mostly minor. Early this morning an upper low
was located over central Arizona with southwesterly flow ahead of
it advecting modest amounts of moisture into southern New Mexico
and west Texas. Light snow showers have been falling over the Gila
region including Silver City. The low will weaken as it drifts
north but a weak short wave will eject ahead of it across the CWA
today with just enough forcing to bring slight chances of rain and
snow mostly for mountain areas across the northern zones.
Precipitation amounts will be light with snow totals mostly under
an inch. A rather weak cold front has also moved westward through
the area tonight so today`s high temperatures should be only
several degrees cooler.

The southern Rockies will remain in southerly branch of split
flow with short wave ridge moving across the CWA bringing dry
weather and near normal temperatures on Monday. However deep mean
troughing off the Pacific coast will also cause southwest winds
aloft across the area by Tuesday. This scenario will support
slightly above normal temperatures through Friday as milder air is
advected into the region. However moisture will also be
transported to New Mexico and west Texas during this time. Thus
weak impulses may provide sufficient lift for a few rain and high
mountain snow showers Tuesday through Friday mainly around
elevated terrain. Otherwise most of the CWA will remain dry though
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Also expect breezy to windy
conditions on Friday as a stronger upper wave with a cold front
induces surface low development to the east resulting in both low
and mid and low level level gradients strengthening.

Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will bring
near normal temperatures and dry weather next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 13/12z-14/12z.
Isolated areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility in rain and
mountain snow showers. Otherwise skies mostly SCT-BKN050-100 BKN-
OVC150-250 with surface winds around 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A passing upper disturbance will combine with a weak cold front
to bring slightly cooler temperatures to southern New Mexico and
west Texas today along with slight chances of rain and snow
showers mainly around the higher mountains. High pressure will
produce dry weather and near normal temperatures on Monday.
Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday through Friday but upper
disturbances will cause a few rain or snow showers each day
across the region with most of the precipitation falling around
mountain locations. High pressure should bring dry weather and
near normal temperatures next weekend. Wind speeds around 10 to 20
mph today through Thursday and around 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph next Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              53  33  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              51  32  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  24  40  27 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   50  33  53  33 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             44  32  51  31 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                  53  33  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               53  35  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  35  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               51  30  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            56  34  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              49  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  34  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  33  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  33  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           52  30  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   53  33  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                54  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  32  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 41  26  47  29 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               41  26  46  28 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                40  25  44  28 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 44  26  49  26 /  20   0  10   0
Hillsboro               49  30  53  30 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               51  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            45  28  50  27 /  30   0  10   0
Hurley                  45  31  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   47  32  56  31 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek              46  34  54  32 /  30   0   0   0
Faywood                 48  32  52  32 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                  54  35  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 53  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  38  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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