Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 111006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring hot mostly dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Thursday with
only slight chances for mainly mountain area thunderstorms. Friday
through next weekend moisture from a tropical disturbance may
flow into the area resulting in more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft with attendant subsidence and abundant
sunshine will bring hot temperatures and dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Tuesday. In addition
to the heat another concern is smoke from the Willow wild fire may
spread into northern portions of the CWA resulting in poor
unhealthy air quality and locally low visibility across portions
of Sierra...Grant and Dona Ana Counties.

Upper high center was located over southern Arizona border region
this morning with anticyclonic flow around it advecting hot dry
air mass. The high center will drift slowly east today and will
be located over northwestern portions of the CWA Tuesday further
suppressing convection. By Wednesday afternoon the upper high will
be centered over the Texas panhandled with circulation inducing
southeast winds around the 700 mb level. Meanwhile at the surface
large thermal/heat low west of the divide will combine with high
pressure over southern plains to also produce low level southeast
winds. These trends will gradually transport moisture into the CWA
with precipitable water rising to around .7 to 1 inch by Thursday
afternoon. But while the moisture increases, warm air aloft
associated with proximity of upper ridge will keep instability
marginal. Thus expect thunderstorm coverage will be mainly
confined to mountain areas with most of the lower elevations
remaining hot and dry Wednesday through Friday afternoon.

Thereafter a more complex and possibly much more active scenario
ensues. By Friday evening unseasonably deep and high amplitude
upper trough will be entering the Great Basin with ridge aloft
aligned along the Mississippi Valley. This will support a deep
south to southeast flow at mid levels. In addition large surface
heat low will cover much of the western United States with
associated trough extending into central New Mexico. The trough
will induce southeast winds to its east ands westerly winds to its
west but in either case trajectories indicate transport of air
mass from Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of California respectively.
Models meanwhile remain consistent in moving tropical disturbance
or possible hurricane Bud into the Baja.

If this situation develops then resultant circulations will advect
deep copious amounts of moisture into the CWA causing the
precipitable water to further rise to around 1.2 to 1.5 inches by
Saturday afternoon with K Indices around 35 to 40. Low level
convergence caused by surface trough plus possible embedded short
waves aloft and upslope flow around high terrain should therefore
bring more widespread convection Friday night through next weekend
with heavy rain and flooding a possible threat. Some
uncertainties exist this far in advance especially concerning
mesoscale features but will increase storm coverage across the
CWA later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 11/12z-12/12z.
High pressure aloft will bring mostly vfr conditions with clear
skies. However smoke from the Willow wild fire may cause areas of
visibility less than 3 miles mainly for areas north of Los
Cruces. Surface winds will be around 5 to 15 kt most areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will bring hot mostly dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Thursday with
only slight chances for mainly mountain area thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain around 8-12 degrees above normal.
Friday through next weekend moisture from a tropical disturbance
may flow into the area resulting in more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                102  74 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca          100  70 100  68 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces              99  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              97  65 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              79  52  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences   98  68 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             92  62  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  98  61 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               97  63  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     100  71 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              103  65 103  67 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock           104  74 104  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              97  68  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 101  70 104  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            99  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          99  74 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           99  64 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  101  64 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                99  66 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  73 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 88  57  88  57 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero               86  53  89  58 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                86  52  87  57 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                 92  53  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               96  63  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               99  62 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            91  49  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  93  60  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   96  50  98  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              94  60  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 95  63  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  98  65  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 98  62 101  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          98  65 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              94  62  96  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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