Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 132042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 PM MDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air over the Borderland again this evening will keep storm
chances quite low for most locations. The exception will be far
southwestern New Mexico to include the Gila and Bootheel areas
where isolated storms are expected. Tuesday will begin a slight
moisture increase, and thus a few more storms. However with high
pressure building back toward the area, temperatures will also be
on the rise. Mid-week and beyond moisture levels increase further
to give all areas chances at daily afternoon and evening storms
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quite convoluted flow pattern exists across the U.S. currently.
Central U.S. ridge extending into the Gulf of Mexico with an
embedded upper low over W. TX. This pattern is nothing like the
typical monsoon pattern for the SW, so the moisture availability
over the SW has been haphazard thus far this year. We are in a
short period of moisture absence today and Tuesday as drier
continental flow has pushed out moist to the S and E. Thus minimal
storm activity today and again Tuesday with the far western zones
favored today, and the mountains favored Tuesday. There should be
very limited activity over the lowlands for the next 48 hrs.

As the upper low slowly lifts out of west Texas, an upper high
spills in from the NW and centers across TX and NM. This flow
pattern change should allow some increased moisture to move in
from the south, but it appears that plume will focus over our SW
zones and over AZ with increase capping aloft over our N and E
zones. Thus, with this transition, we are likely to see increased
storms over our western and southwestern zones, but probably stay
dry over our E lowland zones.

Thursday and Friday a pair of passing troughs to our north will
help reduce the impact of the upper ridge and allow the moisture
plume to slowly shift east back over our area. This will help to
spread the moisture more evenly across our CWFA and give more
uniform precip chances across the area through Saturday. The
current GFS and ECMWF model runs both bring a drier NW flow into
the region Sunday to squelch a lot of the storm activity for a
drier outlook to end the week.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/00Z-15/00Z...
VFR conditions through period. High pressure aloft will limit TSRA
to mainly mountain areas between 00Z-04Z and again between 18z-
24Z. Skies will be FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200. Winds generally
west to southwest at 5 to 15KTS. Wind gusts to 40KTS also possible
near storms.

04-Lundeen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm development to
mainly mountain areas this afternoon through Tuesday. A moderate
surge of moisture will increase chances for thunderstorms area wide,
starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through next weekend.
Day time temperatures will be few degrees above normal the next
through the period. Minimum relative humidity values will stay above
20 percent most areas with moderate overnight recoveries.  Vent
rates will range from good to very good.

04-Lundeen

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  97  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           65  93  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              68  95  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  94  70  92 /   0   0  20  20
Cloudcroft              53  73  55  71 /  20  30  30  40
Truth or Consequences   68  94  70  93 /   0  20  20  20
Silver City             61  88  61  84 /  20  30  30  30
Deming                  66  95  68  94 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg               67  93  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro      72  97  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            68  97  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  92  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  68  97  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            70  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          68  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           67  96  69  94 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                   67  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68  96  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               69  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 57  81  59  80 /  20  30  30  40
Mescalero               59  82  59  80 /  20  30  30  40
Timberon                57  80  59  79 /  20  30  30  40
Winston                 59  87  59  84 /  10  30  30  40
Hillsboro               64  92  65  90 /  10  30  30  30
Spaceport               67  95  69  93 /   0   0  20  10
Lake Roberts            57  87  58  82 /  20  30  30  40
Hurley                  63  89  63  87 /  20  30  30  20
Cliff                   62  92  63  89 /  20  30  30  40
Mule Creek              63  89  65  87 /  30  40  30  30
Faywood                 64  90  65  88 /  10  30  30  20
Animas                  67  94  68  90 /  20  20  30  20
Hachita                 66  94  67  91 /  10   0  20  20
Antelope Wells          65  91  66  86 /  10   0  20  30
Cloverdale              61  87  64  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/04



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