Area Forecast Discussion
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765
FXUS64 KEPZ 171958
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
158 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
East winds out of the Southern Plains will keep us below normal
through the week, but a warming trend will steadily bring us back
to near normal by Thursday. An upper level system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, especially over
eastern NM and western TX. Dry, southwest winds will fill in
behind the system with more Spring-like conditions next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend has begun today with temperatures rebounding back
to near 60 degrees in El Paso. While still 10-15 degrees below
normal, it`s not the record cool weather we saw on Saturday.
Surface high pressure over east TX will continue the flow of cool,
east winds out from the Southern Plains over the next several
days. However, daily heating will warm us up to around near normal
by Thursday.

A weak upper level low passing over the region on Monday will
allow for some high clouds and a few light rain showers over Far
West TX in the morning an early afternoon, mainly in Hudspeth
County eastward. Otherwise, the area should remain dry in the
short term as an upper level ridge sets in by Tuesday.

The arrival of a backdoor cold front on Wednesday will bring in
slightly cooler air from the central Plains along with deeper
moisture as PWs bump up to over 0.50". The cooler air will be
countered by the upper level ridge suppressing most rain chances
and mixing in warmer air in the afternoon, so highs don`t look to
change much despite the FROPA.

The next period of impactful weather begins on Thursday as an
upper level wave over California deepens into a cutoff low and
moves over the Great Basin. Most of the area will see a few rain
showers in the morning before a push of drier air from the
southwest moves in behind the Pacific front. Strong Gulf moisture
advection will help destabilize the atmosphere east of the
Pacific frontal boundary and allow for thunderstorm development
Thursday afternoon. Latest models place the boundary along the
eastern border of our CWA, with most GEFS members keeping
southwest NM in the dry sector of the storm. Therefore, the best
thunderstorm chances look be limited to east NM and west TX.

Our dry, west winds finally return area-wide next Friday with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT080-100 to start period with mainly areas south and east
of a KALM-KELP line becoming FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN080-100 with
isolated -SHRA BKN040-060 possible after 10Z. Winds will remain east
to southeast at 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slow moving upper trough will pass over the region over the next day
or so with just some light rain showers possible over Hudspeth and
possibly El Paso counties tomorrow. Otherwise expect high
temperatures to remain near to slightly below normal for much of
the upcoming week. Relative humidities should remain above 20-30
percent through the week as well limiting any critical fire
danger. Winds will be light through midweek, but as another upper
low moves into the southwest, winds will be on the increase
starting Thursday and a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
also returns. Best rain chances with this system will be far
eastern zones. Poor to good vent rates to start out the period,
but look to become very good to excellent toward the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 42  64  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           37  57  36  64 /  10  20   0   0
Las Cruces              37  63  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              36  62  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              25  42  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   37  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             36  57  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  35  63  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               37  66  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  62  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               35  61  34  65 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  62  39  69 /  20  20   0   0
Loma Linda              37  58  37  64 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                  41  63  40  69 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  63  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          40  62  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           35  63  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   35  64  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                40  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               35  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 28  50  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               30  51  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                27  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 27  56  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               34  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               33  64  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            28  56  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  32  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   31  64  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 35  59  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  37  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 34  65  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  63  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  62  42  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30-Dennhardt/26-Grzywacz



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