Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 061127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
427 AM MST Thu Dec 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching Pacific storm system will reach southwest New
Mexico and far west Texas late this evening and continue into
Friday, with widespread lowland rain showers and high mountain
snow. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to around an inch are
expected with mountain snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
Temperatures will be cooler with lowland highs in the mid 50s.
Drier air returns on Saturday with a slow warmup into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
One more warm and (mostly) dry day ahead today as a Pacific storm
system approaches the area. The front edge of this system is
currently located over southwest AZ will continue to progress
eastward today. In the meantime, temperatures will remain
slightly above normal today with increasing clouds through the
afternoon. WRF runs along with the NAM model tend to agree the
scattered rain showers will begin to develop around sunset across
southwest NM but remain isolated through the night. Strong tropical
moisture transport from Baja California will allow mid level
moistening with PWs jumping to around 0.80" by Friday morning. Upper
level dynamics will also increase as the 120KT subtropical jet
streak moves over the area. Increased lifting will allow for
widespread rainfall by sunrise Friday morning. Several models
suggest the highest rainfall will occur over our eastern zones
including west TX. Weak instability aloft (200-500 MLCAPE) along
with moisture convergence along the Pacific front will also allow
for isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of
0.50-0.75 are expected with isolated areas over 1.00".

As for snow potential, snow levels will remain above 8000 feet
through Friday evening with only light accumulations over the
highest terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains.
Models disagree on the extent of cold air advection over the
Sacramento Mountains Friday night into Saturday morning. The NAM
is slightly cooler which would lower the freezing level and allow
for a quicker transition to snow than what the GFS suggests. For
now, the forecast meets both models in the middle with 2-4 inches
expected above 8000 feet. The majority of snow will fall early
Saturday morning as freezing levels drop.

A rapid drying behind the trough axis will occur on Saturday with
clearing skies. Temperatures will slowly warm backup to near
normal by Monday with continued light winds. The next storm system
will arrive sometime Wednesday but for now looks to be drier and
primarily a wind producer.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 06/12Z-07/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions expected today with lowering cigs late
tonight. Scattered -SHRA will develop after 00Z. Skies SCT-
BKN040-060 BKN150 through the day lowering to SCT025-040 OVC050
after sunset. Winds will remain light 220-250 at 05-10KT through
the day shifting to 090-120 at 05-10 KT after 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching Pacific storm system will arrive later tonight and
bring with it increased moisture and widespread wetting rainfall.
Most areas will see rainfall amounts of around 0.50-0.75" will
isolated areas near an inch. Snow levels will remain above 8000
feet through Friday before lowering to around 7000 feet Saturday
morning. Snow accumulations will be light over the Gila Region and
around 1-3" over the Sacramento Mountains. Min RH will remain
above 30 percent areawide. Winds will be light over the weekend
with poor ventilation rates. Dryer air returns on Saturday as the
storm system moves east out of the area. Temperatures will slowly
warm back to near normal into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  44  51  39 /   0  60  80  70
Sierra Blanca           63  41  48  36 /   0  70  90  60
Las Cruces              62  42  50  37 /   0  50  80  60
Alamogordo              60  40  49  37 /   0  40  80  70
Cloudcroft              42  30  36  25 /  20  40  90  80
Truth or Consequences   57  40  49  37 /   0  40  80  50
Silver City             52  37  46  34 /  20  60  60  70
Deming                  61  41  51  36 /   0  60  90  60
Lordsburg               60  40  52  36 /  10  70  60  60
West El Paso Metro      64  45  50  40 /   0  60  80  70
Dell City               64  38  48  35 /   0  50  80  70
Fort Hancock            66  43  54  38 /   0  80  80  60
Loma Linda              60  38  46  35 /   0  60  80  60
Fabens                  66  42  52  38 /   0  70  80  60
Santa Teresa            64  42  50  37 /   0  60  80  60
White Sands HQ          62  43  48  39 /   0  50  80  70
Jornada Range           61  40  50  37 /   0  50  80  70
Hatch                   62  41  51  38 /   0  50  90  50
Columbus                63  43  51  38 /   0  70  80  60
Orogrande               62  42  49  37 /   0  50  80  70
Mayhill                 49  31  39  28 /  20  40  90  80
Mescalero               49  31  41  29 /  10  40  90  80
Timberon                49  31  39  27 /   0  50  90  80
Winston                 51  31  44  29 /  20  50  70  60
Hillsboro               57  37  48  35 /  10  50  80  60
Spaceport               59  39  49  35 /  10  50  80  60
Lake Roberts            50  30  45  27 /  20  60  70  70
Hurley                  55  37  47  34 /  20  60  80  60
Cliff                   57  35  51  30 /  20  60  60  60
Mule Creek              54  37  47  32 /  20  60  60  70
Faywood                 56  38  48  35 /  10  60  80  60
Animas                  62  41  53  36 /   0  70  60  60
Hachita                 62  39  53  35 /   0  70  70  60
Antelope Wells          62  42  53  36 /  10  70  70  60
Cloverdale              58  41  51  35 /  10  70  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30-Dennhardt


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