Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Our slight warming trend will continue over the next couple of
days and that means by tomorrow or Thursday most lowland locations
will be at 100 degrees or a little higher. Our warmest days will
be Friday through Sunday. We will approach heat advisory levels
for the El Paso area on Friday and Saturday. We will see a slight
chance for rain in area mountains for the start of next week, but
the rest of will stay dry and hot through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure looks to control our weather through the
weekend, but we are in the monsoon season and moisture will be
lurking not to far away. Currently a broad area of high pressure
was building across northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. Just to
our east is some decent moisture, but that upper level ridge will
be slow to move so the moisture will stay bottled up to our east.
We will see a degree or two of warming through the end of the
week, so that by tomorrow and for sure by Thursday, most lowland
locations will see triple digit heat. The El Paso area will be
close to heat advisory criteria this weekend. If our highs bump up
a degree or two more we will need to issue a heat advisory as the
low temperatures will easily be above the criteria. But even if
we don`t quite make it, it will be hot either way you look at it.
High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be 5 to 9 degrees
above average.

On Sunday an upper level trough well too our north will help push
the upper level ridge back to the west. One would hope this would
allow the moisture to our south and east to flow into the region.
But an upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. very quickly
builds across Texas and into New Mexico to cutoff the moisture
flow. I do have a slight chance for rain in the area mountains for
the first part of next week, but I`m not holding my breath that we
will come to pass. The GFS tries to slip a plume of moisture up
north of the International Border for the middle of next week, but
the ECMWF says "not yet" with an upper level ridge firmly in
place across the southwest U.S. So for now the extended forecast
looks hot and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z... P6SM SKC through period. Winds
west to northwest 5-15KTS, occasionally higher gusts at KELP through
12Z, then shifting to the N to NE west of the divide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper high will be building over the desert southwest over
the coming days before gradually getting broken down by an upper
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will lead to
hot and dry conditions as highs reach the 100 to 105 mark for the
lowlands with relative humidities falling back into the single
digits. Winds will be on the light side through the end of the week,
but with the break down of the ridge, gusty west winds are possible
Saturday which could lead to near critical conditions. Vent rates
will be mainly be in the good category the next couple days as winds
aloft decrease. No precipitation is expected during the forecast
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           70 100  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              67 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  99  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              55  80  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   68  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             61  94  64  97 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  99  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            74 104  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              70  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  72 102  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            71 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          71 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           66 101  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   65 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68 102  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               71 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 60  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               58  87  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                59  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 58  93  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               63  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               65  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  94  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  60  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   55  98  59 102 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              60  96  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 63  98  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  65 100  65 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64 100  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          64  99  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              63  94  64  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz


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