Area Forecast Discussion
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981
FXUS64 KEPZ 171048
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
448 AM MDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft over the Borderland will give us one more day
of mostly dry and warm weather. Starting on Tuesday, southerly
flow and moisture will develop over the area. This pattern will
accelerate Wednesday and Thursday as more tropical moisture moves
into the area. Hence we will see numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, with some heavy rainfall
and flooding possible. Temperatures will also cool below normal
with the rain and clouds. Moisture will start to decrease as drier
west flow develops. This will decrease the thunderstorm activity
and end the widespread flooding potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A wet mid week still looks on tap as tropical moisture moves in.
In the short term, the upper ridge over us will persist for one
more day. The ridge extends from southern Arizona to the upper
midwest. Meanwhile, the inverted trough moving up from south Texas
has now reached the Big Bend and will continue westward today. PWs
over the CWA are around .7 to .8 inches but the inverted trough
will increase PWs to around 1 inch much of the area this
afternoon, with even PWs approaching 1.5 inches over Hudspeth
County. With the upper ridge still over us today, expect
convection to once again be limited to the mountains, although the
moisture moving in from the east will also give Hudspeth County a
risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon.

Tuesday...high center from upper ridge begins to slide east to the
Texarkana region as our inverted trough moves out over the Baja.
Models again showing a tropical feature in the equation, as it
phases in with the trough and begins to drift north toward the
southern Baja. Expect isolated thunderstorms all zones as tropical
moisture begins edging up to the CWA.

Wednesday and Thursday...tropical moisture begins moving up in
force as PWs increase greatly, up to 1.3 to 1.5 inches. Both GFS
and ECMWF show tropical feature moving up to the area Thursday,
embedded amongst the tropical flow. PWs on Thursday may approach
1.6 inches. Expect some heavy rainfall both days, and flash
flooding could become a problem. Note on PW: Our average for this
time of year is .77 inches. Our rule of thumb for widespread
flooding is 150% of normal, which is 1.16 inches. If we are able
to hit 1.6 inches per the models, that would be about 200% of
normal.

Friday into the weekend...the tropical feature phases in with
incoming Pacific trough caught in the westerlies. This will slowly
force the mid/high level moisture to our east through the period.
Lower level moisture will not erode as much so kept low POPs in
for Friday, with POPs limited mostly to the mountains Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period as dry weather
continues. Winds generally E/SE at 8-12 kts. Skies SKC-
FEW080-100. Isold BKN100CB -TSRA over area mountains after 19Z
and also eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will again suppress most thunderstorm activity
today, with only isolated showers over the Sacramento Mountains and
Gila Region this afternoon. Lowland areas will stay dry. Near-normal
temperatures along with sufficient low level moisture will keep min
RH values above critical thresholds. The weather pattern changes on
Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper high shifts east and southerly
flow at the surface will advect deep moisture back into the area.
Area wide rain chances return Tuesday night through Thursday, with
heavy rainfall and possible flooding, mainly Wednesday and
Thursday. Drier west flow will move in for the weekend, limiting
thunderstorms to mostly isolated, and reducing the threat of
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  70  92  71 /   0   0  10  30
Sierra Blanca           87  63  87  64 /  20  20  20  30
Las Cruces              90  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  30
Alamogordo              88  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              71  47  70  48 /  10  10  30  50
Truth or Consequences   90  66  90  66 /   0   0  20  20
Silver City             88  59  87  61 /  10  10  30  40
Deming                  92  65  91  66 /   0   0  10  30
Lordsburg               92  66  91  66 /   0   0  10  30
West El Paso Metro      90  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  30
Dell City               90  65  92  66 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            90  68  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
Loma Linda              88  62  88  65 /   0   0  20  30
Fabens                  91  67  93  68 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Teresa            90  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  30
White Sands HQ          90  67  91  67 /   0   0  10  30
Jornada Range           90  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  30
Hatch                   92  66  92  67 /   0   0  10  30
Columbus                92  67  91  68 /   0   0  10  30
Orogrande               90  67  91  68 /   0   0  10  30
Mayhill                 79  51  81  53 /  20  20  30  50
Mescalero               80  52  82  54 /  10  10  30  40
Timberon                78  51  80  53 /  20  20  30  50
Winston                 85  53  87  56 /  10  10  30  40
Hillsboro               89  60  89  63 /  10  10  20  40
Spaceport               90  65  90  65 /   0   0  10  30
Lake Roberts            86  52  87  54 /  10  10  30  40
Hurley                  88  59  88  61 /  10  10  10  40
Cliff                   88  50  90  52 /  10  10  30  40
Mule Creek              89  49  90  53 /   0   0  30  30
Faywood                 88  60  88  63 /  10  10  30  40
Animas                  93  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                 92  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  30
Antelope Wells          90  63  89  64 /   0   0  10  30
Cloverdale              88  60  87  62 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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