Area Forecast Discussion
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498
FXUS64 KEPZ 162231
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief mild spell a Pacific storm system will affect the
area with strong gusty winds Friday followed by cooler
temperatures Saturday. There is not much moisture with this
system, but a few inches of snow is possible in the Sacramento
Mountains and higher elevations for the Gila region. Another
system, perhaps colder with below normal temperatures, will drop
southeastward across New Mexico and Texas on Tuesday. This one
should be even drier with only a slight chance of showers in the
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak short wave passed to the north of our area today, but
temperatures still managed to climb a few degrees above normal. An
upper ridge following behind will insure Thursday`s max temps
match or slightly exceed today`s.

The next trough will be stronger and dive southeastward in
response to a building west coast upper ridge, which will tighten
pressure gradients and bring low end wind advisory westerly winds
to southern NM and far west Texas Friday afternoon. The timing
will determine how warm Friday gets, but it should be above
normal. Saturday will be about 8 to 10 degrees cooler but at
least wind will not be an issue. And though this system is
energetic, moisture will be somewhat lacking so mainly the
mountains of the northern CWA will benefit (a few inches of snow
in the Sacs, for example) Friday afternoon through the evening.

An upper ridge will send temps back above normal Sunday and
increasing westerly flow in advance of another system will keep it
that way Monday. And yes, it should be windy again Monday
afternoon. This next trough is somewhat similar in strength and
track originally but will have more of a northerly trajectory by
the time it reaches NM, resulting in the coolest day of this
forecast period Tuesday. Yet it`s also a relatively dry system
with only a few showers (if that) expected over the mountains
Monday night into Tuesday.

The active northwest flow starting late Friday can be blamed on
the previously mentioned upper ridge setting up over the west
coast. This means mostly dry, with periods of below normal
temperatures (especially next week) and intermittent windy
conditions. But the west coast needs a break from the string of
flood producing storms, so we can handle it.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through much of the period. Winds
will be shifting around through period, starting out westerly at 5-
15KTS but start to turn around to the N to NE after 06Z then become
more south to southwest after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A zonal flow will keep temperatures warm for a couple more days, but
an upper trough will cross NM Friday afternoon which will bring a
chance for some mountain snow and light lowland rain showers along
with windy conditions. Winds on Friday will increase out of the west
at 20 to 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph with the strongest winds over
southern zones. High temperatures will fall into the mid to upper
50s for Saturday before warming back up above normal for Sunday and
Monday. Relative humidities will remain above 30 percent through
Friday but start to fall into the 20s for the weekend. Vent rates
drop for Thursday but with the strong winds on Friday, expect very
good to excellent rates.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 40  65  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           38  66  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              37  64  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              36  62  39  57 /   0   0   0  40
Cloudcroft              28  47  29  37 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences   35  60  38  55 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City             35  59  37  46 /   0   0  10  40
Deming                  34  64  38  57 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               35  63  38  54 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      40  64  44  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               35  66  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  69  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  63  42  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  66  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            37  64  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          38  64  41  59 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           34  63  38  58 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   35  64  38  59 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                36  65  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               36  62  39  59 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 33  58  37  47 /   0   0   0  50
Mescalero               31  55  34  45 /   0   0   0  50
Timberon                31  54  33  46 /   0   0   0  50
Winston                 29  58  34  48 /   0   0  20  40
Hillsboro               34  62  38  53 /   0   0  10  20
Spaceport               34  61  37  57 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            29  58  33  44 /   0   0  20  50
Hurley                  35  60  38  49 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                   29  61  34  51 /   0   0  20  40
Mule Creek              31  59  38  48 /   0   0   0  50
Faywood                 35  61  38  51 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  35  64  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 34  64  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          36  65  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  64  40  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett/26 Grzywacz



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