Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 120942
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
342 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will move across the region
and bring widespread rainfall to southern New Mexico and west
today and tonight. Heavy rains will fall over some locations
resulting in isolated areas of flooding. Westerly winds will
result in seasonably warm drier weather on Saturday and Sunday. A
very strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night
causing much cooler well below normal temperatures next week
along with areas of lowland rains and high mountain snows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Sergio was moving into the central Baja early this
morning with remnants of system expected to track to the
northeast across northwestern Mexico this afternoon before
accelerating along the New Mexico-Mexico-far west Texas border
area tonight. Cyclonic flow around upper low off the California
coast and ahead of Sergio will push abundant moisture into the CWA
causing dewpoints to rise above 50 F and precipitable water to
increase to around 1.2 to 1.3 inches.

As Sergio remnants approaches southern New Mexico and west Texas
will become located in right entrance region of a 100 kt upper jet
max to the northeast while experiencing differential PVA
associated with attendant upper trough axis. Lifting will also be
enhanced from low level moisture convergence and along mountain
slopes as well. These factors will generate widespread rains today
and tonight. Air mass will exhibit little instability as CAPE`s
will be mostly less than 200 J/kg while K indices will be
generally below 35. Thus expect more of a steady moderate rain
most areas with heavier downpours brief most places. Despite this
a few areas may see up to 2 inch rainfalls so localized flooding
possible over isolated locations.

Sergio remnants should move east of the CWA after midnight
Saturday with westerly winds behind it advecting seasonably warm
drier air mass. Meanwhile the closed upper low now along the
California coast will drift slowly southward with center near the
California-Baja border area by late Sunday. Then Sunday night a
very strong cold front will move east to west through New Mexico
and west Texas with easterly winds behind the boundary pushing
much cooler Canadian air into the region. Thus Monday and Tuesday
high temperatures will plummet to around 25 degrees below normal.
In addition the upper low to the west will advect warmer more
moist air from the Baja region toward the CWA. This pattern will
result in this air mass being lifted over the cool air dome at the
surface resulting in chances for rain and even high mountain
snows Monday through Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies. In short
the region will be getting an early taste of winter next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 12/12z-13/12z.
Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will increase today and
become widespread late this afternoon and tonight. Thus expect
scattered areas of MVFR and a few areas of IFR ceilings and
visibility through most of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will move across the region
and bring widespread rainfall to southern New Mexico and west
today and tonight. Heavy rains will fall over some locations
resulting in isolated areas of flooding. Westerly winds will
result in seasonably warm drier weather on Saturday and Sunday. A
very strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night
causing much cooler well below normal temperatures next week
along with areas of lowland rains and high mountain snows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  59  76  58 /  50  90   0   0
Sierra Blanca           75  56  73  54 /  20  70  20   0
Las Cruces              70  54  75  52 /  50  90   0   0
Alamogordo              71  55  73  54 /  40  90   0  10
Cloudcroft              55  42  55  39 /  50  90  20  20
Truth or Consequences   70  54  73  53 /  60  80  20  20
Silver City             64  49  66  47 /  70  80  30  30
Deming                  69  54  74  52 /  60  90  20  20
Lordsburg               68  55  72  52 /  80  80  30  30
West El Paso Metro      71  58  75  58 /  50  90   0   0
Dell City               76  57  76  54 /  20  70  20   0
Fort Hancock            79  59  77  57 /  30  80   0   0
Loma Linda              70  54  72  54 /  40  80   0   0
Fabens                  75  57  77  56 /  50  80   0   0
Santa Teresa            71  57  75  55 /  50  90   0   0
White Sands HQ          71  57  75  55 /  50  90   0   0
Jornada Range           71  56  74  53 /  50  90   0   0
Hatch                   71  55  75  53 /  60  90   0   0
Columbus                70  56  76  54 /  60  90  20  10
Orogrande               72  57  74  55 /  50  90   0   0
Mayhill                 64  46  64  43 /  50  90  20  20
Mescalero               62  46  62  43 /  50  90  20  20
Timberon                61  46  63  43 /  50  90  20  20
Winston                 64  44  67  43 /  70  80  20  30
Hillsboro               68  50  70  48 /  60  80  20  30
Spaceport               70  54  73  51 /  50  90   0  10
Lake Roberts            63  43  66  42 /  70  70  30  30
Hurley                  64  49  69  47 /  70  80  20  20
Cliff                   68  48  72  46 /  70  50  30  30
Mule Creek              66  50  69  49 /  70  50  30  40
Faywood                 65  51  69  48 /  70  80  30  20
Animas                  69  56  73  52 /  90  80  30  30
Hachita                 69  54  73  51 /  80  90  20  20
Antelope Wells          69  54  71  52 /  80  90  30  20
Cloverdale              65  53  69  51 /  90  80  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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