Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 150919
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Springtime weather conditions are back through the week ahead. The
return of deep westerly flow across the southwestern U.S. means
warm and dry conditions across the region, with breezy to
marginally windy afternoons most days. Little to no rain is
expected across the southwestern U.S. with plenty of sunshine and
few clouds. Temperatures will hover near seasonal averages, which
are the warmest of the year. Days will be warm to hot and nights
will be mild. The region heats up more later next week for what
could be our warmest temperatures of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude, deep westerly flow pattern has reestablished
across the Southwestern U.S. and that brings back Spring-time
weather conditions. Thus this forecast package is mostly dry
(with two short-lived exceptions), warm to hot, and breezy to
windy.

The storm track is now passing north of our region, with lesser
shortwave upper troughs and ridges passing in a mostly
progressive pattern. This means most of the moisture and dynamics,
of any consequence, will stay north, keeping our region on the
dry southern portions of these passing storm systems. We do get a
couple glancing brushes with slight rain/storm potential late
today and again Sunday. But both are limited to extreme northern
area, and will favor the higher terrain of the Gila and Sacs. For
most of the region, dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue
through the passing of these two systems. The primary impact will
be increased winds, much like we saw yesterday afternoon. In fact
the forecast for today, very much mimics Friday`s in all elements.
Temps warm, air drying, winds breezy to marginally windy from the
west in the afternoon.

Temperatures will hover near seasonal normals for the daily high
through the weekend and early next week as the pattern remains
somewhat flat aloft. Nights will be mild with slightly above
normal temperatures, especially in the urban areas. By midweek,
next week, temperatures look to be on the rise, with a stretch of
100 degree afternoon highs expected across the lowlands. It
appears the highs will likely be the highest readings of the year
for most locations, but we are NOT seeing excessive heat at this
time.

Winds will be on the higher side of the spectrum, but we are not
expecting any excessively strong wind event. However deep
alignment of wind direction, a surface trough to our east, and
deep daily downward mixing of stronger winds aloft will combine
to make afternoons breezy to mildly windy.

Looking well out to next weekend, the models suggest we could see
some Gulf moisture reintroduced into the region on a southerly
plume out of Mexico. That could bring back rain and storm chances,
but that will be beyond this 7-day forecast. At this point that
appears to be a long-shot with the better moisture likely curling
east of our region.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z...
VFR conditions through the forecast period for all terminals.
Skies should be SKC. Westerly wind at 5-12 kts through 17Z. AFT
18z winds increase to 10-20kts g 30kts at KELP, KDMN and KLRU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry weather pattern is back in place through next week.
A deep westerly flow pattern, typical of spring, has shoved the
moisture east and brought in drier air for all areas. A pair of
passing upper-levels storms to our north may bring a few clouds,
and even a shower or storm to the northern Gila and Sacs late
today and again Sunday, but chances for precipitation are low. The
desert areas will stay dry and generally clear.

The southwestern deserts will see the driest and warmest air,
along with breezy and gusty afternoon winds. Thus that area of SW
New Mexico will experience elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon, but Red Flag conditions not expected to be of duration
or area to support an issuance.

RH will drop into the single digits for most of the area today,
and for many days to come (teens in the mountains). Surface wind
speeds will be breezy to gusty this afternoon. Speeds will drop
for Sunday, but then ramp back up for much of next week.
Temperatures will track at seasonal averages or above. We are
currently at our warmest average highs of the year. Lowlands will
likely see 100 degree readings for mid week and beyond.

Deep mixing, thanks to warm surface temps, and strong winds aloft,
will allow for good venting for most days, with trajectories to
the east to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  74  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           92  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              93  63  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              96  63  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              72  47  72  48 /   0   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences   94  66  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             85  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  94  61  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               93  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      96  70  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               98  67  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           100  70 101  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              90  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            94  64  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          94  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  63  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   94  62  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                94  65  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               94  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 83  53  82  53 /   0   0  20  10
Mescalero               82  51  82  52 /   0   0  20  10
Timberon                80  50  80  51 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                 87  52  88  52 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro               92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               93  61  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            87  52  89  53 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                  88  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   93  51  95  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              87  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 89  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  95  60  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 94  59  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          94  61  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              88  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird


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