Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142240
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
340 PM MST Mon Jan 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow aloft will persist through Friday, keeping the
area mostly under partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. A
disturbance aloft will move through Tuesday night, giving the Gila
Highlands a slight chance of showers. Otherwise the area should
remain dry through Thursday. A strong Pacific storm system will
move in Friday. This system will bring gusty winds, showers and
cooler temperatures to much of the area. Showers will begin early
Friday morning and last into Friday night before ending. Snow
levels will fall to around 6000 feet by Friday evening.
Temperatures will fall on Saturday back below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Nice quiet, mild stretch of weather coming up as southwest flow
persists. More activity at the end of the week and into next
week. In the short term, minor Rex Block pattern set up over the
western U.S. breaks down as the base upper low breaks short wave
through the ridge and lifts north out of position. Short wave
moves across central New Mexico Tuesday night, giving the Gila
Highlands a slight chance of a shower. A second wave moves up from
the eastern Pacific/Baja and over the area Thursday with little
or no impact. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal.

Friday...fairly vigorous Pacific frontal system moves in. System
looks to be relatively dry and cold as it rides up over the
Pacific ridge and takes a continental trajectory into New Mexico.
A few showers could begin over the Gila as early as Thursday
night, but the better precip chances are on Friday as the
associated surface front approaches. Winds may be a bit later than
usual to pick up but by mid to late afternoon, winds will be
either just below wind advisory criteria or just into the low end
of advisory. Showers will fall mostly over the mountains, but a
few showers could fall vicinity of the front as it pushes east.
Snow levels will start the day around 8000 ft, but then fall to
around 6000 ft by late afternoon and evening. Do not expect
significant snowfall at this time.

Saturday and Sunday...storm exits and upper ridge builds back in.
Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday with
only minor warming for Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...both GFS and ECMWF still having major
issues with the solution. ECMWF had been digging upper low down
into northern Mexico (too far south for much precip), while the
GFS runs had been further north and just as slow (recipe for
lowland snow). Now most current run of both models continues to
vacillate. Current GFS mirrors older ECMWF runs in digging upper
low down into northern Mexico Tuesday with perhaps just a slight
chance of showers on Wednesday. New ECMWF run fails to dig upper
low southward at all; instead choosing to keep the trough
progressive and open as it sweeps across Tuesday. This would
suggest little chance of showers turning to snow over the
lowlands. Since Monday is last period of forecast don`t have to
commit to any model yet. Hopefully they can converge on a solution
soon.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 through 06Z and after 18Z with
FEW-SCT250 from 06Z-18Z. Winds from the east to southeast AOB 12KTS
becoming S to SW after 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to southwest flow aloft will help to continue warming
temperatures slowly over the coming days with highs over the
lowlands mainly in the lower to mid 60s by midweek but relative
humidities will remain above 30 percent. Dry conditions are expected
through Thursday. An upper trough will be moving through the region
on Friday and bring breezy to windy conditions along with some
lowland rain and mountain snow showers.  Temperatures will cool down
to a little below normal for the weekend but dry conditions will
return. Vent rates for the coming days will remain generally poor to
fair but improve with the system on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  62  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           33  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              32  61  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  44  28  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   32  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             30  56  34  54 /   0   0  20   0
Deming                  32  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               33  60  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      36  61  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               32  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            36  65  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              33  60  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  36  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  61  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          33  60  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           30  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   32  61  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                34  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               32  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 27  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  51  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                26  51  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 25  56  29  55 /   0   0  20   0
Hillsboro               29  60  33  59 /   0   0  10   0
Spaceport               31  58  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  56  29  53 /   0   0  20   0
Hurley                  29  57  34  55 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                   30  58  32  57 /   0   0  30   0
Mule Creek              31  57  35  55 /   0   0  30   0
Faywood                 31  59  35  57 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                  33  62  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 31  62  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          32  62  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              33  60  38  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz


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