Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

548
FXUS64 KEPZ 111022
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
322 AM MST Sun Nov 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The warmest day for the next week will be today, with near normal
temperatures expected this afternoon across the Borderland.
However this warming comes at a price as the afternoon will become
breezy to windy, with west winds increasing ahead of a dry
disturbance moving in aloft. This system will be responsible for a
big change overnight tonight as a strong cold front brings in a
blast of cold Canadian air for Monday. The Sacramento mountains
are likely to see flurries or snow showers overnight and Monday,
but with low accumulations expected. Temperatures for early week
will be well below normal with the first freezes, hard freezes in
fact, expected across the entire region. Afternoon highs will be
as much as 25 degrees below normal for Monday and Tuesday.
Through the week ahead conditions will remain dry and chilly,
with a slow warming. Temperatures look to remain below normal for
the entire week despite the slow warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looking at water vapor we see a large Pacific trough dropping
through the Great Basin overnight and turning SE toward the Four
Corners. At the surface cold Canadian air is spilling south
through the Rockies and the Plains states. Teens and 20s for
temperatures as far south as S Co and KS with this frontal
boundary. Today we will see the jet drop in aloft as a surface
trough deepens just to our east; both in association with the
approaching upper-level disturbance. For our region this does two
noticeable thing with the weather. First it turns our winds
westerly and increases them into the breezy to windy range, and
secondly, warms the region back to around seasonal normals. Winds
should stay below advisory criteria, but likely be in the 20-30
mph range in the afternoon hours.

Tonight we will see the arrival of a more modified Pacific front
as the upper trough sweeps overhead. This will turn our winds
northerly and begin our cooling as cool air sourced more from the
Great Basin starts to spread into the region. We`ll have to wait
until Monday to begin to see the colder air move in from the
Canadian front, as the upper system passes to our east. This
second frontal boundary is being pushed by a strong surface high
that will pack our pressure gradient and lead to gusty NE-E winds
through the day Monday. West slopes and passes could see gusts of
40 mph. The rest of the region will also get breezy winds in the
15 to 25 mph range. The air arriving with this front is
significantly colder and thus the winds will bite as the day
become blustery. Daytime max temps will likely occur by mid-day
with temps dropping in the afternoon. Highs will top out about
20-25 degrees below seasonal averages.

Monday night will follow with the coldest temperatures of the
season. Dewpoints will crash as the drier air spreads over the
region. Winds overnight will slacken and skies will be generally
clear. All these conditions are the prefect recipe for strong
radiational cooling and cold air draining into the lowlands. Thus
we expect a strong freeze with morning lows on Tuesday in the
teens and 20s areawide. Today would be a good day to prepare all
your freeze sensitive issues: People/Pets/Pipes/Plants.

As the fronts push in there will be some saturation of the airmass
over the Sacs in the NE-E upslope flow, mainly on Monday. Thus we
expect low clouds, freezing fog, and possible snow flurries or
showers in those areas. Moisture content is minimal and thus so
are QPF values. Therefore snowfall with this system should be
light and short. We are forecasting trace to 1.5" of snow for the
Sacs and surrounding lowlands east and south of the range. Snow
levels will quickly fall to the desert floor Monday night, but the
snow potential will also end quickly during Monday evening.

The rest of the forecast cycle looks fairly benign as we flush the
main upper system to the east, but not the cold, dry airmass that
it brought. Thus we keep the forecast dry in deep NW-W flow under
general high pressure aloft to our west. The cold airmass won`t be
scoured out of the area by any strong advection so it will have to
modify in place, and that will go slowly. Thus we allow for day to
day warming after Tuesday and through the remainder of the week,
but it will take until Saturday to get temperatures back up to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 11/12Z-12/12Z...
VFR conditions through the period. P6SM SKC-FEW250. Winds will
start out light south to southeast and shift around to the west to
southwest aft 16Z and start increasing around 18Z to 10-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures return to near normal today, but that is because a
dry upper-level trough will drop in to make our winds breezy to
windy out of the west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts possible in the afternoon. Relative humidities today will
fall into the upper teens and 20s lowlands with 30s in the
mountains. Weather conditions will approach Red Flag Warning
criteria, but the fire danger is not elevated at this time. A
stronger cold front than Friday will move through tonight through
Monday morning and bring gusty north to northeast winds to
southern New Mexico. Temperatures will struggle to get above the
lower 40s far east lowlands and warm into the lower to mid 50s far
west for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night of the season will
occur Tuesday morning as lows fall into the teens to mid 20s.
Temps will rise, but very slowly, through the remainder of the
week, but likely stay a few degrees below normal. Vent rates will
be fair to good Sunday (thanks to the stronger winds) before
dropping back to poor to fair starting Monday due to cold surface
air restricting mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  39  45  25 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  36  38  21 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              68  37  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              63  35  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              44  17  19  10 /   0  20  20   0
Truth or Consequences   61  33  41  21 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  26  43  19 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  65  33  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               66  32  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      69  40  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  36  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            72  41  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              63  33  38  19 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  71  40  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            68  39  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  39  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           65  34  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   65  35  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                69  36  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  36  41  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 53  21  24  12 /   0  40  30   0
Mescalero               51  21  26  14 /   0  30  20   0
Timberon                52  22  26  12 /   0  20  10   0
Winston                 55  23  38  14 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               62  28  42  17 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               63  33  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            55  21  41  14 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  58  27  45  18 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   61  27  50  19 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              60  26  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 59  28  43  19 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  68  33  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 68  32  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          70  34  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              66  32  54  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.