Area Forecast Discussion
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537
FXUS64 KEPZ 122124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MDT Wed Sep 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm days with plenty of sunshine look to be the trend for the
remainder of this week and into the first part of next week as an
upper high remains parked over New Mexico up to the Great Plains.
A few daytime thunderstorms are possible for the mountain areas
the few days, otherwise little to no chance of rain exists across
the Borderland. Temperatures will continue about 4 to 6 degrees
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
September and October are often some of the best weather of the
year around here, and the next seven days should not violate this
principle. In the short term, a pretty effective blocking pattern
comprised of a ridge of high pressure extending from New Mexico
across the Central Plains and northeast, and a strong upper trough
along the west coast of the U.S. will persist through the weekend,
resulting in very few clouds and not much chance of rain. Low
level moisture will remain so where daytime heating and maximum
lift can occur (the mountains) we will still see a slight chance
for a thunderstorm.

Monday and beyond...the upper trough finally pushes east across
the northern U.S., forcing the upper ridge into an east-west
orientation for much of next week. Bottom line...dry and warm
conditions to continue through the forecast period. Temperatures
will run around 4 to 6 degrees above normal.

One feature to watch, which could change the dry pattern is an
inverted trough-born over the Gulf of Mexico and marching toward
the area mid week. Both GFS/ECMWF bring the trough as far as the
Big Bend around Tuesday before the feature mostly breaks up.
Remnants of the trough move to the area Wednesday/Thursday, with
both models showing some QPF during this time, and both models
develop more serious moisture advection into the area toward the
end of the work week. Will wait and see model behavior of these
features next few days before committing to them.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 13/00Z-14/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT250 to
start period with isolated mainly mountain 3SM -TSRA BKN050-070
through 03Z and again after 18Z. From 03Z-18Z with P6SM SKC-FEW250.
Winds AOB 12KTS out of the S to SE over eastern areas to start
period and W to NW to the west but shifting to the southeast after
12Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will extend southwest to northeast across the region
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the period.
Few if any thunderstorms expected except around the highest
elevations.  Relative humidities will be in the mid teens and 20s
lowlands with mid 20s to upper 30s mountains.  Light winds through
the period will result in vent rates remaining mainly good to
occasionally very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  95  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           61  91  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              64  93  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              64  93  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              46  72  45  70 /  20  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   64  92  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             58  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  63  94  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  93  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      69  94  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64  95  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            65  96  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              63  90  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  68  95  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  94  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           64  93  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   64  94  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                66  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  94  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 51  81  49  79 /  20  20  20  20
Mescalero               52  82  50  80 /  20  20  20  20
Timberon                51  80  49  78 /  20  20  10  20
Winston                 51  85  51  85 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro               60  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               63  92  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            50  86  49  86 /   0  10   0  10
Hurley                  58  89  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   50  92  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  65  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 63  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          62  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              60  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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