Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Our dry and very warm weather looks to continue into the coming
weekend. Our skies will be generally clear through the end of the
week and then we will see a slight chance for precipitation in
area mountains for the weekend, but the rest of us will stay warm
and dry. Temperatures this week will run 3 to 8 degrees above
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
What was looking like a battle between the moisture to our east
and the dry air to our west is looking more like if the the 1950`s
New York Yankees took on the Yonkers Little League All Stars. It`s
just going to be hot and dry this week.

Kind of an interesting weather pattern to start the week, we have
a large upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. and another
upper level ridge over the Baja of Mexico. Then over the
intermountain west we have a large upper level trough. These
features will be slow to change over the next several days. A
generally southerly flow to our east will keep the moisture
lurking just on the other side of the mountains, but our westerly
winds will keep the dry air in place through at least Friday. By
midweek the upper level ridge to our west will strengthen and
expand and that will continue to push our afternoon high
temperatures, higher. By Wednesday and as early as tomorrow, we
will again see a return to triple digit heat. By the end of the
week we will see high temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above
normal and we may come close to heat advisory criteria (high 105+,
low 75+) for the El Paso metro area.

For the weekend, an upper level trough way to our north will help
push the upper level ridge back to the west a little and that will
allow our temperatures to drop a few degrees and allow a trickle
of moisture back into the eastern part of the area from the east.
Right now, trickle may be over selling it, but I did put some
slight chance pops in the mountains to cover things just in case.
Both the extended GFS and ECMWF bring the upper level right back
on top of us for the start of next week, which could mean even
hotter temperatures to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z... P6SM SKC-FEW100-120 through
period. Winds will generally be west to northwest AOB 12KTS at all
terminals but shifting to the S to SE east of KALM-KELP line
overnight. After 18Z winds will be generally W to SW 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation expected over the remainder of the week as high
pressure aloft will remain over the desert southwest and northwest
flow aloft dominates. The low level drying trend will continue over
the next couple of days with relative humidities falling back into
the single digits by Wednesday with high temperatures on the
lowlands approaching or surpassing 100 degrees. A slight increase
possible in humidities for the end of the week but will remain under
15 percent.  Winds will remain about 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday but be
on the increase to 10 to 20 mph Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           68  95  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              68  99  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              67  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              53  76  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   69  98  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             61  93  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  66 100  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  98  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      74  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  98  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            72 100  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              68  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  70 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            70  99  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          71  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           67  99  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   67 101  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               71  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               56  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                56  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 58  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               62  96  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               66  98  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            54  90  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  61  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   56  96  53  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              61  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 63  95  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  64  99  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 63  99  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          64  98  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              62  93  61  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.