Area Forecast Discussion
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089
FXUS64 KEPZ 152209
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 PM MST Tue Jan 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Area of high pressure brings quiet and mild weather for the next
few days. On Friday, an upper level system brings breezy to windy
conditions and a chance for precipitation. Snow levels around 7000
feet in the mountains will lead to portions of the mountain areas
receiving light amounts of snow. An upper ridge sets up late over
the weekend into early next week bringing back quiet weather with
warmer and drier air, but temperatures remain below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper ridge is moving east and allowing a series of upper
level disturbances to move in. The main impact or better said
feature with these are upper level clouds. Water vapor imagery is
showing two distinct cloud bands moving towards the Borderland.
Some precipitation will be possible with the first shortwave
trough overnight, but mostly in portions of the Gila Region. For
Wednesday and Thursday, we remain under the influence of the
upper disturbances bringing mid to upper level clouds.

On Friday, the main upper level trough responsible for the
shortwaves pulses in the previous days finally comes in. The main
hazard at the moment with this system are the strong winds
associated to the frontal passage of a Pacific front and strong
cyclogenesis over the TX and OK Panhandles. 850 mb winds are from
the west with speeds around 30 to 35 kts in both the GFS and
ECMWF models while the NAM has slightly lower wind speeds. Another
factor that will support the development of breezy to windy
conditions is the presence of the jet stream aloft over the region
with speeds up to 120 kts. In terms of precipitation, most of the
activity is expected in the northern portions, but I can`t
discard a few showers in the southern lowlands. The mountain areas
should have the snow levels drop to 7000 feet after the frontal
passage, which could lead up to an inch of snow in portions of the
Sacramento Mountains, but generally light amounts are expected.

Once this system moves east into the Southern Plains a high
amplitude upper level ridge will dominate over the weekend and
early next week in the Southwest Deserts. This will result in
quiet weather, as warmer and drier air set over the Borderland.
Temperatures will be slowly increasing, but remain a few degrees
below normal for the season.

For the later part of the forecast period model agreement drops as
the last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF keep changing their
solutions. The GFS is playing catch up with the ECMWF, as this
one ends up running with a different solution with each run.
Therefore, I`m keeping low POP`s towards the end of the forecast
period to account for this as there is low confidence in the long
term solutions of both models.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW040-060 SCT-BKN150-200 through most of the period.
Winds will be SW early becoming mainly W to NW by 06Z at 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday as westerly
flow aloft dominates the weather pattern.  Relative humidities will
generally remain above 30 percent through the remainder of the week.
On Thursday night into Friday, an upper trough and associated cold
front will move through the region and bring a chance for some light
lowland rain and mountain snow showers. Gusty west winds will also
accompany it with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
mph. Dry conditions return for the weekend with temperatures cooling
to 5 to 10 degrees below normal Saturday and then starting another
warmup to above normal again early next week. Vent rates will be
fair again on Wednesday before dropping back down to poor
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 42  63  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           40  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              39  61  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              38  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  41  30  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   36  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             35  53  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  37  61  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      42  62  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  64  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  60  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  40  63  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  62  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          40  61  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   36  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                39  62  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               38  61  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 33  51  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               31  48  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                32  48  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 30  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               34  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               36  59  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  52  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   33  56  30  59 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  54  31  56 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 36  56  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  38  59  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 37  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  60  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29-Crespo/26-Grzywacz



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