Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
313 PM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into
early this evening, before ending overnight as drier air moves in
from the southwest. Hot and drier weather returns for most areas
Sunday through early next week, as low pressure moves over the
western states and sustains westerly flow over the region. Exception
may be east of the Rio Grande, as Gulf of Mexico moisture returns
the threat of storms to this area. We ratchet up the temperatures
a little more by late in the week, as high pressure aloft tries
to build in from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rainfall from the remnants of Bud,
developed and moved across the area last night with no reports of
flooding received as of this writing. Heaviest rains fell
generally along and west of the Rio Grande. Some totals for the
main round of precipitation follow.  Rainfall for this event
generally ranged from 0.3 to 0.8 inches for most areas, with
readings as high as 1.5" in the Gila region and 1.4" at Sierra
Blanca Pk. in the Sacramento Mtns. Most areas along the southern
high country near Cloudcroft and Sunspot, received 0.6 to 0.8". A
total of 0.32" was recorded at the El Paso International Airport
and 0.53" was recorded at Mescalero. Jornada recorded 0.93" and
1.03" was measured at Salinas peak. Salt Flat in eastern Hudspeth
county recorded 0.09".

Sfc dewpoints remain quite high after the passage of the main band
of showers last night/early this morning, with readings in the 60s
across much of the CWFA this afternoon. A cloudy start to the day,
has limited redevelopment of significant afternoon convection
across the area. Our 12Z sounding was quite moist, with upstream
forecasted soundings in northern Chihuahua indicating the same.
EPZ convective temperature was 73 and as of 1:30 pm, we are at 77
with limited convection. Finally, our 12Z PW of 1.56", topped our
previous record for today of 1.51".

Latest upper level analysis and WV imagery shows remains of main
dynamics ahead of Bud moving into southern Co., with a S/WV
disturbance back over SE Az. Anchor trof upstream, extends southeast
over western Mexico from the old core of Bud over northern Baja,
Ca.. Broad area of much drier air is inbound from the southwest.

Skies will gradually clear overnight from west to east. If we
clear sufficiently early, there may be enough lingering moisture
in the area to support some patchy fog in Luna/western Dona Ana
county towards the pre dawn hours Sunday morning. Bukit soundings
for Deming indicate near SFC winds below 5 mph after 2 am,
however winds just above 850 are above 7 kts. It will be close,
but the potential is the there. Thus have included mention in the
grids for tonight`s fcst.

The trof over NW Mexico and southwest Az, will lift northeast
over NM later tonight and Sunday while continuing to
weaken...driven by a larger upper lvl trof moving into the inter-
mountain west. Feature will usher a return to drier west-
southwesterly flow aloft over the region through early next week,
while the southeast states upr high tries to circulate additional
Gulf of Mexico moisture our way. Battle between the two will may
leave the dryline over our area during this time, with the threat
of storms possibly back for areas east of the Rio grande.

Larger trof will weaken and lift northeast mid week and allow high
pressure aloft off southern Ca., to expand and build eastward
over the southwest states. This will mean hotter weather for the
area late next week, with lowlands potentially climbing back to
the low 100`s and mountain readings to the mid 80`s.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS - MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK:
Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall with hail possible mainly east
of the Rio Grande. Watch for night time intrusions of Gulf
moisture. Last 2-3 GFS and ECMWF solutions continue to circulate
an area of disturbed weather up our way from the southeast early
next week, driven by seasonal high pressure aloft over the
southeast states. This will go up against the trough over the IM
west at that time, so the battle of dryline type storms may return
to our CWA to start the work week. DCAPES TO 1000 J/Kg...LI`s -2
to -3 and 0-6 km bulk shears 25-30 kts...support the potential
strong downdrafts and rotation with possibly a few storms. Areas
east had not received sufficient rainfall to pack down the soil,
so localized blowing dust will be concern as well.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
A few 3-5SM -TSRA BKN030 possible through about 02Z across area
except slight chances continue over the Gila region and Hudspeth
County. Otherwise, expect FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080-100 through 09Z
then skies will gradually become SKC-FEW100-120. Additional CU
development likely after 18Z with SCT-BKN060-080.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming and drying trend will start Sunday after a cooler, humid
day today. West-southwesterly flow will setup across the area which
will bring in temperatures back into the 90s to near 100 degrees by
midweek. Dew points will also be on the decrease, but should keep
relative humidities mainly above 15 percent through Mon/Tue and then
will likely drop back toward the single digits by Wed into the end
of the week.  The exception maybe far eastern areas where the
dryline will hover close to from time to time. Any precipitation
chances after Sunday will likely be mainly mountain areas and
isolated in coverage. A breezy day expected Wednesday, otherwise
winds should remain at or below 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  91  70  97 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  88  67  93 /  40  10   0   0
Las Cruces              61  89  63  94 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  90  64  95 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  69  49  75 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   61  88  64  93 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             55  82  57  88 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  58  89  59  95 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg               58  87  60  92 /  40   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  91  70  96 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               63  92  66  97 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            67  93  70  97 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  87  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  68  93  67  97 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            64  91  66  96 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          65  91  68  96 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           60  91  62  96 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                   59  92  61  97 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                61  90  63  96 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  91  68  96 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 56  78  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               54  77  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                53  76  54  81 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 54  82  53  87 /  30   0   0   0
Hillsboro               55  86  58  91 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               59  90  62  95 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            48  80  49  86 /  30  10   0   0
Hurley                  57  82  56  89 /  30   0   0   0
Cliff                   53  86  52  91 /  40  10   0   0
Mule Creek              55  84  57  89 /  40  20   0   0
Faywood                 56  84  58  90 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                  58  88  60  93 /  40   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  88  59  93 /  30   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          58  88  60  93 /  30   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  82  59  88 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.

TX...None.
&&

$$

22/26
Tripoli/Grzywacz


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