Area Forecast Discussion
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729
FXUS64 KEPZ 102115
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
315 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a nice day on Thursday with near average high
temperatures under mostly sunny skies, but then clouds, moisture
and rain chances will be on the increase for Friday as moisture
associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio move across
the region. The weekend is looking drier with average high
temperatures, but then the first part of next week looks unsettled
with rain chances and temperatures well below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As all the eyes of the U.S. are focused on the Florida Gulf Coast
watching the devastating effects of major Hurricane Michael, our
thoughts and prayers are with those in the path of the devastating
storm. In a couple of days we will have our own tropical system
moving across the area, but the effects from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Sergio will in no way be comparable with what is
happening in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Currently Sergio is still a day and a half from making landfall
along the Baja of Mexico. In the meantime we will continue our
sunny and seasonal weather for Thursday and most of Friday. High
temperatures on Thursday will be right near average and highs on
Friday may slip a few degrees below average. The challenge with
this forecast is the exact track of Sergio. The GFS models takes
the remnants across southern New Mexico, with the ECMWF takes the
remnants directly across El Paso, while the NAM model keeps the
remnants a little to the south of El Paso. The track of the
remnants is important, it means the difference between a trace of
rain and possibly 2 to 3 inches of rain. Right now I have stuck
with the middle ground and kept most of the area receiving 0.50 to
1 inch of rain late Friday into Saturday. The Bootheel is a
little higher and Hudspeth County is a little lower. We should get
a better idea on the track of Sergio by tomorrow.

By Saturday afternoon the remnants of Sergio will be well to our
east and we will see return to more pleasant weather for the rest
of Saturday and most of Sunday. By late Sunday, two weather
factors will begin to set the stage for our next round of weather.
An upper level trough will settle into the southwest U.S. and
that will turn our flow more to a southerly direction, while at
the surface a back door cold front will be under cutting this
southerly flow. As the front undercuts the southerly flow this
will provide some lift to give us a chance for rain on Monday. And
since both the upper level trough and the easterly winds at the
surface will be slow to change, we will continue to see rain
chances through the middle of next week. Now I`m not talking about
a solid three days of rain, but each day will see off and on
showers as long as the upper trough is to our west and the surface
flow is from the east. Needless to say behind the cold front and
with all the clouds and rain, we will see our high temperatures
running 10 to 15 degrees below average. Fall is definitely here.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 11/00Z-12/00Z...Flow aloft will shift southwest,
ahead of another upper level trough that will deepen over the
western states. This will draw the remnants of Sergio or way for
increasing high cloudiness on Wednesday.  Winds light and variable
tonight through 16Z Thursday...then 220-240/10-15kts with gusts to
20kts.  VSBY P6SM through pd. Clds FEW-SCT060-090 thru 03Z, then SKC
thru 13Z Thu.  Clds FEW250-280 aft 13Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather with a warmup to near normal temperatures, will continue
today and Thursday, as our flow aloft turns southwest across the
region. This is ahead of another upper level trough already taking
shape over the western states. Strengthening southwest winds aloft
ahead of the trough, will draw the remnants from Sergio up our way
by weeks end. This feature will move through fairly quickly Friday
through early Saturday, with the heaviest rainfall expected
overnight Friday into early Saturday...mainly along the interstate
10 corridor and east of Hwy 70/82 to to Alamogordo and Cloudcroft.
Generally 0.5-1.0 inches are expected for these areas, with lesser
amounts northward. Locally higher amounts will be a possible along
the southern and western facing slopes of our southern mountain
ranges. A strong back door cold front will follow late Sunday and
Sunday evening, with a shift to strong east winds primarily along
our eastern and southern lowlands. West facing slopes will
experience the highest sustained wind speeds and gusts during this
time, with the potential for gusts to 40 mph or more.

Min RH today will range from the lower 20`s lowlands...to lower 30`s
mountains. Readings Thursday climb roughly 5-10%, then another 15-
20% Friday, where values around 60% are expected for the high
country. Lowland readings 40-50% are on tap to end the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  80  60  74 /   0   0  20  40
Sierra Blanca           51  79  57  76 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces              47  77  54  71 /   0   0  10  40
Alamogordo              48  76  54  73 /   0   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              36  55  41  55 /   0   0  10  40
Truth or Consequences   46  75  53  71 /   0   0   0  60
Silver City             42  70  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
Deming                  45  77  54  70 /   0   0  20  60
Lordsburg               46  76  53  69 /   0   0  30  60
West El Paso Metro      54  79  60  72 /   0   0  20  40
Dell City               52  80  56  77 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Hancock            54  83  60  80 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda              50  76  56  71 /   0   0  20  30
Fabens                  52  82  58  76 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Teresa            50  79  58  72 /   0   0  20  40
White Sands HQ          50  77  56  72 /   0   0   0  40
Jornada Range           46  76  55  72 /   0   0   0  40
Hatch                   48  77  54  72 /   0   0   0  40
Columbus                48  78  57  71 /   0   0  20  60
Orogrande               50  77  57  73 /   0   0  10  30
Mayhill                 39  64  45  64 /   0   0  20  40
Mescalero               40  64  44  62 /   0   0  10  40
Timberon                39  64  45  61 /   0   0  20  40
Winston                 35  69  43  64 /   0   0  10  70
Hillsboro               43  72  49  69 /   0   0  10  70
Spaceport               47  75  52  71 /   0   0   0  40
Lake Roberts            32  68  43  63 /   0   0  20  70
Hurley                  42  72  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
Cliff                   37  74  46  69 /   0   0  20  60
Mule Creek              39  71  49  67 /   0   0  20  70
Faywood                 43  71  50  66 /   0   0  20  60
Animas                  47  77  55  70 /   0   0  30  70
Hachita                 44  78  53  70 /   0   0  30  60
Antelope Wells          46  77  53  70 /   0   0  30  60
Cloverdale              46  72  52  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Tripoli



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