Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 141008
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
308 AM MST Mon Jan 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure followed by westerly winds will bring mostly dry
weather with warming temperatures to southern New Mexico and
west Texas today through Friday. A low pressure system with a
cold front will then move across the region causing breezy to
windy conditions Friday followed by cooler temperatures and more
dry weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Split flow pattern will persist into mid week with southerly
branch extending across the southern Rockies. For today and
Tuesday short wave ridge will move across New Mexico and west
Texas bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. Upper low
will be spinning off the California coast however steering mid and
high level Pacific moisture into the region. Thus expect periods
of extensive mostly cirrus cloud coverage this week.

Zonal flow aloft over a mostly westerly surface flow will exist
Wednesday and Thursday causing temperatures to warm a little above
normal. Despite the mid and high tropospheric moisture low level
will remain dry so no rain or snow expected.

Stronger upper trough with a cold front will subsequently move to
the southeast through the Rockies on Friday with associated
cyclogenesis over the Texas panhandle. Low and mid level gradients
thus strengthen resulting in breezy to windy conditions across the
CWA. Given the continental trajectories little moisture transport
will occur ahead of system but string dynamic forcing aloft over
low level lift along the front may produce a few lowland rain and
high mountain snow showers for northern zones.

Subsiding northwest winds behind the trough will bring dry
weather next weekend but cold air advection will lower Saturday
high temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees or around 5 degrees below
normal with upper ridge causing a slight warm up on Sunday. Longer
range models show another stronger trough and cold front causing
mild possibly breezy conditions Monday followed by much cooler
temperatures with possible rain or snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 14/12z-15/12z.
VFR conditions with skies mostly SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC250. Surface
winds generally from 5-15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure followed by westerly winds will bring dry weather
with warming temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas
today through Thursday with winds mostly around 5 to 15 mph. A
low pressure system with a cold front will then move across the
region causing breezy to windy conditions Friday with winds
gusting around 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. There will
also be a few lowland rain and mountain snow showers Friday mainly
north of Las Cruces with rain and snow amounts generally light.
Cooler temperatures and more dry weather is expected next Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  35  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           51  33  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              54  32  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  32  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              39  26  43  28 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   52  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  30  53  34 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                  54  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               55  33  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  35  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               52  31  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            56  35  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              50  33  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  57  35  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            55  33  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          53  33  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           54  30  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  32  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  34  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  32  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  28  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                43  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 48  25  52  29 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               52  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  26  52  29 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                  51  29  54  34 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                   55  30  56  32 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              53  31  54  35 /   0   0   0  30
Faywood                 51  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  56  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 55  31  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          56  32  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              55  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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