Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 141115
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
515 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will keep temperatures on the warm
side today. Southeast winds at the surface will continue to supply
low level moisture, with scattered thunderstorms expected to
develop over the higher terrain this afternoon, and at least
isolated storms in the lowlands. This same pattern will repeat
itself on Friday. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Bud
will stream into Southeastern Arizona and Southwestern New Mexico
Friday night and Saturday morning. Localized heavy rainfall will
be possible in the Gila Region. This system will bring scattered
thunderstorms to the higher terrain east of the Rio Grande
Saturday, with more isolated storms in the lowlands. Drier
conditions will prevail Sunday and Monday, with moisture and
thunderstorms working back into areas east of the Continental
Divide on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Obviously the prediction for "isolated" storms "drifting into the
lowlands" yesterday was a bust. Low level moisture was deeper than
anticipated, allowing mid-40s dewpoints to keep hold over much of
South-Central New Mexico. (Steady SE winds with gusts 20-25 mph
over much of the lowlands east of the Rio Grande early in the
morning were, in retrospect, a clue). Rather than storms
initiating in the Sacramentos and struggling as they drifted
south and west, storms erupted along the western edge of the low
level moisture.

Moving on to today...current surface analysis shows light and
variable winds across the area, with dewpoints generally in the
mid-40s but with a few drier pockets out west, and a few moister
pockets where the more significant rain fell yesterday (e.g.,
around Hatch and Arrey). VAD wind profile at KEPZ shows SE winds
of 10-15 knots lurk just above the nocturnal boundary layer. NAM
and GFS agree, and show steady S to SE winds returning to much of
the area, along with continued (weak) moist advection by mid-
morning. By early afternoon, a weak surface trough will extend
from SE Colorado into SW New Mexico, strung out roughly across
Sierra County and into the Gila Region. While the low level
convergence looks weaker than yesterday (lighter SE winds), this
feature will still provide a secondary focus for convection again
today. But despite being snakebitten yesterday, I still think
orographic lift will be the primary initiator for convection
today. Slow movement could cause localized spot flooding,
especially over parts of Sierra/Northern Dona Ana Counties where
soil has been moistened from yesterday`s rain. Soldier Canyon
above Mescalero is also a concern, as most rain remained just
south of the burn scar yesterday. Unfortunately, this area will
likely be a daily concern through the summer.

The overall pattern persists on Friday, with continued SE flow and
weak surface trough extending from NE New Mexico into the Gila
Region. However, the western extension of the subtropical ridge
will break down and shift to the east as a trough over the Pacific
Northwest continues to deepen, and a shortwave trough off the
southern California coast heads east. Expect another round of
isolated thunderstorms, favoring the higher terrain of the Gila
Region and Sacramentos Fri afternoon.

Friday night, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bud start coming
into play. The ECMWF continues to have a slight western bent with
the highest QPF over SE Arizona and a sharp cutoff along the AZ/NM
line. The GFS, most of its ensemble members, Canadian, and NAM
continue to suggest significant rainfall (>1.00") working further
east into the Gila Region and Bootheel, but quickly ramping down
east of the Rio Grande, but with localized heavier precip over
higher terrain areas. The NAM, for what it`s worth, may be a
little too far to the east with the heavier precip, even over
Sonora (who will get more rain than any of us).

Overall, GFS solution seems the most persistent, and basically
mirrors the forecast from yesterday. Heaviest/steadiest "tropical"
rainfall in our area will mainly be over the Gila and down into
the Bootheel, with amounts mainly 0.50-1.00" with localized 1.50"
amounts possible in the higher terrain of the Gila Friday night
into Saturday morning. Further to the east, more "traditional"
convective thunderstorms will prevail - isolated to scattered in
the lowlands, and more numerous in the higher terrain. Localized
areas could see greater than 1" of rain in Sacramentos, but
overall lower amounts will prevail in the lowlands east of the Rio
Grande. (The relative minimum QPF around ELP in the GFS, ECMWF,
and NAM is likely on-point).

The bulk of the tropical moisture will lift north of the area by
late Saturday afternoon, and Sunday looks mostly dry as SW flow
aloft takes over thanks to a sprawling closed low over the Great
Basin.

This nearly-stationary closed low will duke it out with the
subtropical ridge most of next week, while SE low level flow keeps
delivering moisture to the area. Precip chances will ramp up
starting late Tuesday, with overall better chances east of the
Continental Divide. The closed low over the Great Basin will try
to keep drier conditions in place over the Gila and Bootheel.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/12Z-15/12Z...
Generally VFR conds area wide. Isolated storms are possible today
especially in area mountains. The convective activity from these
storms may induce MVFR conditions. Main concerns will be strong
outflow winds and associated blowing dust. Winds remain from the
southeast between 5 to 10 kts, and after 3Z winds up to 20 kts in
Hudspeth, southern Otero and eastern El Paso counties.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture keeps moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. This
intrusion will keep wetting precipitation chances in the Borderland,
especially in the mountain areas. Isolated to scattered storms will
develop with the main hazard being gusty winds and dry lightning.
However, brief periods of heavy rain in burn scar areas may lead to
localized flooding, this is especially true for the Sacramento
Mountains and the Gila region. The moisture in the area will allow
our max temperatures to drop to near normal today and tomorrow.

This weekend the remnants of tropical storm Bud bring additional
moisture to the whole region. The western zones have a greater
chance for wetting precip.  This means a chance for numerous to
widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, which could lead to
flooding. Up to around an inch of rain could be possible between the
New Mexico and Arizona border. The chances for dry lightning will be
further reduced as more rain comes our way. Max temperatures will
drop a few degrees below normal with all the activity in the area.

For next week week, we dry out Sunday and Monday and temperatures
go back to near normal. Moisture will sneak back in from the east
starting Tuesday, chances for wetting precip most days over areas
east of the Continental Divide, while drier conditions will try
and stay in place over SW New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  75  97  73 /  10  10  10  40
Sierra Blanca           93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0  40
Las Cruces              96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  40
Alamogordo              96  69  94  70 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              72  52  72  52 /  40  30  40  30
Truth or Consequences   95  68  94  69 /  20  30  10  40
Silver City             90  65  86  61 /  20  30  30  70
Deming                  98  68  94  66 /  10  20  10  50
Lordsburg               97  68  91  63 /  10  20  20  70
West El Paso Metro      97  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  40
Dell City               97  67  97  70 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            98  74  98  73 /   0   0   0  40
Loma Linda              93  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                  98  71  97  70 /   0  10   0  40
Santa Teresa            98  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  40
White Sands HQ          96  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  30
Jornada Range           96  67  95  68 /  10  30  10  30
Hatch                   99  67  96  68 /  10  30  10  40
Columbus               100  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  50
Orogrande               96  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  30
Mayhill                 81  56  79  57 /  40  30  20  20
Mescalero               81  56  80  57 /  40  40  40  30
Timberon                81  54  79  56 /  30  20  20  30
Winston                 87  57  86  57 /  30  30  20  70
Hillsboro               93  63  90  62 /  20  30  10  50
Spaceport               95  66  93  67 /  10  30  20  40
Lake Roberts            88  50  84  53 /  30  30  30  70
Hurley                  90  64  87  60 /  20  30  20  70
Cliff                   95  55  91  55 /  20  30  30  60
Mule Creek              95  57  89  59 /  20  30  40  80
Faywood                 93  66  88  63 /  20  30  20  50
Animas                  97  68  91  61 /  10  20  30  80
Hachita                 99  68  92  62 /  10  10  20  60
Antelope Wells          97  68  90  62 /  10  10  40  70
Cloverdale              93  66  86  61 /  10  20  50  90

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 29 - Crespo


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