Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 141135
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
535 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see one more day with thunderstorm activity mainly
confined to the mountains and west of Deming. On Wednesday we will
see a slight chance for rain across the whole area. Our rain
chances will go up for the end of the week into Saturday, but then
another drying trend will begin on Sunday into Monday. High
temperatures today and tomorrow will be above average, but we will
see near average high temperatures for the end of the week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
When we talk about roller coaster weather, we are usually
referring to our daily high temperatures, but for today`s
discussion I will be talking about roller coaster weather as it
relates to our thunderstorm chances. For today we will see one
more down day on our rain chances, as upper level high pressure
just to our west will continue to keep a lid on our convection,
except in area mountains and west of Deming. The upper ridge will
then drift to our east on Wednesday and Thursday and the
circulation around the ridge will allow moisture to flow into the
region from the south. So our rain chances will be heading up for
those days. But by Friday the upper ridge will migrate back to our
west. Initially it has little impact on our rain chances for
Friday and Saturday, but by Sunday the upper level ridge will
bring much drier air into New Mexico from the north. This will
help lower our rain chances again for Sunday and Monday. Both the
extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that a weak back door cold front
will help sweep some moisture back into the area on Tuesday so
that our rain chances head back up for the middle part of next
week.

Looking at our temperatures, with the ridge sitting just to our
west, we will see our afternoon high temperatures 4 to 7 degrees
above average for today and Wednesday. As the moisture returns toward
the end of the week, we will see our highs slip a few degrees
back to seasonal averages for Thursday through Saturday. Then for
Sunday and Monday, as we dry out a little bit, we will see our
high temperatures creep a little higher, before dropping back to
near average for the middle of next week. So I guess you could say
that our high temperatures will also be on a bit of a roller
coaster ride.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/12Z-15/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Much like yesterday
we will keep most of the clouds and thunderstorm chances confined
to area mountains and west of KDMN. We will have unlimited
ceilings this morning, then during the afternoon we may see some
FEW070 in the lowlands and some isolated BKN060 in area mountains.
Surface winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 10
knots. Storm motion will be to the southwest or west this
afternoon and evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One more quiet day, thunderstorm-wise, before our rain chances
start to increase again. Upper level high pressure will continue
to limit our thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening to
area mountains and a few locations west of the Continental Divide.
On Wednesday the upper level ridge will drift a little to our east
and that will allow moisture and rain chances to move back into
the area. Even more moisture and higher rain chances arrive for
the end of the weekend into Saturday, but then drier air and lower
rain chances return for Sunday and Monday. For the next week, surface
winds will stay below critical levels, except in and near
thunderstorms where gusty outflow winds could exist. Min RH`s over
the next 7 days will be in the 20`s and 30`s in the lowlands and
in the 40`s and 50`s in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           93  68  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              95  68  93  69 /   0   0   0  30
Alamogordo              94  69  92  69 /   0  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              73  54  71  53 /  30  30  40  40
Truth or Consequences   94  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  30
Silver City             88  60  84  60 /  30  30  30  30
Deming                  95  67  94  69 /   0  10   0  30
Lordsburg               93  67  91  67 /  30  30  20  40
West El Paso Metro      97  73  94  74 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               96  69  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            97  70  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              92  67  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  97  70  94  72 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            96  70  94  71 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          96  69  94  70 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           96  68  94  69 /   0  10   0  30
Hatch                   96  68  94  69 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus                96  69  93  70 /   0   0   0  30
Orogrande               96  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  20
Mayhill                 81  58  80  58 /  30  30  40  30
Mescalero               82  58  80  58 /  30  30  40  30
Timberon                80  58  79  58 /  30  30  40  30
Winston                 87  58  84  59 /  30  30  40  40
Hillsboro               92  64  90  64 /  30  30  30  30
Spaceport               95  68  93  68 /   0  20  10  30
Lake Roberts            87  57  82  56 /  30  30  40  40
Hurley                  89  62  87  62 /  20  30  20  30
Cliff                   92  62  89  62 /  30  30  40  40
Mule Creek              89  64  87  63 /  30  30  30  40
Faywood                 90  64  88  65 /  30  30  20  30
Animas                  94  67  90  67 /  30  30  20  30
Hachita                 94  66  91  67 /   0  20  20  30
Antelope Wells          91  65  86  65 /   0  20  30  40
Cloverdale              87  63  83  63 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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