Area Forecast Discussion
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773
FXUS64 KEPZ 161136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
436 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly sunny skies and near normal temperatures will persist
through Saturday, with some increasing high clouds expected this
afternoon. A weak backdoor cold front will cool temperatures back
to around 5 to 8 degrees below normal on Sunday. No precipitation
is expected until Tuesday night, when a weak upper level
disturbance moves into the area, bringing light rain showers to
the lowlands east of the Continental Divide, and a chance of snow
showers to the Sacramento Mountains through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Persistent upper level ridging over the west coast will allow a
shortwave trough currently over British Columbia to drop south
into the Four Corners region by Sunday morning. This system will
be preceded by a backdoor cold front which will move into eastern
New Mexico on Saturday, with the colder airmass seeping west of
the higher terrain and up to around the Rio Grande Valley by
Sunday morning. After warming up to near or slightly above
normal temperatures Saturday, the front will bring cooler
temperatures by about 10 degrees Sunday for areas east of the
Continental Divide. The upper trough will have little impact on
the area as with the exception of some increase in high clouds
Saturday.

As the western ridge breaks down early next week, another
shortwave trough following the subtropical jet will move into
Arizona on Tuesday, then quickly move across New Mexico Tuesday
Night and early Wednesday. Steady easterly low level flow will
result in some overrunning (isentropic lift) ahead of the
approaching trough Tue night into Wednesday, with light lowland
rain showers and higher elevation snow showers expected. The
precip will mainly be confined to areas east of the Continental
Divide as a drier low level airmass will stay entrenched over the
Gila and much of SW New Mexico, and there`s still some
uncertainty in the eastward extent of dry air to limit the precip
chances, especially NW of an ELP-ALM line. The highest QPF
amounts will likely be over Hudspeth County, and even then, only
in the 0.10 to 0.30 inch range, with perhaps an inch or two of
snow in the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mountains in Otero
County.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through the
middle of the week, with near-normal temperatures returning around
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will prevail most of the day, trending
towards light westerlies by mid-afternoon. Skies will range from
SKC in the morning to SCT/BKN250 by the afternoon as some high
level moisture streams into the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Light winds and shallow mixing will prevail again today, resulting
in poor vent conditions over all of the area. We will some limited
improvement over the lowlands Saturday, but then it`s back to poor
conditions as a weak backdoor cold front works its way up to the
Continental Divide Sunday. Temperatures will be near-normal today
and Saturday, then will generally run 5 to 8 degrees below normal
Sunday and through the first half of next week. Winds will remain
light through the period. Scattered lowland rain and mountain snow
showers may work into areas east of the Divide (and more likely
east of the Rio Grande) Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
generally light rain amounts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           66  37  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  33  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              47  27  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   62  34  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             59  32  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  63  29  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  32  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               67  33  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            69  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              62  37  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  66  36  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            63  34  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          62  37  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  33  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   64  32  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  33  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  34  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 57  30  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               55  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                53  28  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 58  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               61  30  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               61  32  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            59  22  59  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  60  28  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   64  25  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              62  30  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  32  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  66  30  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  27  67  28 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          65  33  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              65  33  62  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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