Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
519 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
100 degree lowland temperature again across the Borderland today.
A heat advisory remains in effect for the Rio Grande valley
communities through Sunday morning. We also continue with our run
of dry weather and sunny skies through the weekend. With the
passing of a Pacific trough to our north, the afternoons will be
breezy today and again on Sunday. Next week the region remains
quite warm, but probably not as hot as this week has been.
Gradually moisture begins to creep into the region next week as
the pattern begins to shift toward the monsoon season flow
pattern. This could mean an end to this streak of dry conditions
with the start of isolated showers and storms by mid week and
beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As projected in yesterday`s discussion, Friday`s highs across the
region were the warmest of the week/season. That bubble of high
pressure responsible for those temperatures, and the very dry
conditions, will weaken a bit and retreat west today. This should
trim our temperatures a bit, but 100+ reading are still expected
across the lowlands again today. Also, there is yet to be any
moisture moving into the region, so the monsoon is still some time
from getting initiated. Thus a continuation of dry conditions for
the weekend. The responsible feature for the high`s temporary
weakening is a passing Pacific trough to our north today. This
will tighten gradients aloft slightly and produce some lee surface
troughing to our east. The result will be breezy afternoons
through the weekend. Winds in the 15 to 25 mph range look
reasonable. Yesterday the intense surface based instability,
coupled with the slightly increased winds resulted in blowing dust
across the SW NM playas along I-10 west of Deming. Thus we expect
more of that today.

Monday the upper trough passes, and surface high pressure pushes
in from the NE. This will slow the winds and start what could
possibly introduce some moisture back into our region. For Monday
it appears only the far eastern areas (Sacs/Guads) get enough
moisture to pose any risk of showers/storms. However, Tuesday and
Wednesday follow with a more easterly flow pattern which will
continue a weak gulf moisture ingest into the region. High
pressure reforms over the gulf states as thermal lows develop over
the Southwestern U.S. deserts. This could be the setup that
initiates the North American Monsoon season. To further bolster
our potential for moisture is a slow-moving inverted trough moving
west off the TX/MX gulf coast across central Mexico. This will
juice up the environment to our south. However we still have some
high pressure aloft attempting to recenter directly over our
area. This means we are not yet done with 100 degree June weather,
and the capping of our environment to limit deep instability and
throttle storm development. However, it is likely by Wednesday of
next week, we could have enough moisture in our atmosphere to
start seeing daily rounds of isolated storms across the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z.
Hot and dry weather continues, with VFR conditions expected for
the next 24 hours. Skies generally SKC...Isolated flat CU over
higher elevations in the Sacramento mountains and Gila region
after 20Z. Winds 280-300 and increasing to 15-20G25KTS after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and mostly dry weather through next week, with some Cumulus
buildups on tap over the mountains each afternoon. Broad northwest
flow aloft will carry a series of upper level disturbances across
the four corners through early in the work week. This will
sustain breezy west-northwest winds for all areas each afternoon
through the weekend. Weak high pressure aloft will follow and
redevelop over the region starting Tuesday...for a return to
lighter winds. There is a threat of isolated mountain storms
mainly for the Sacs starting the middle of next week, as low level
moisture may try to sneak in from the east at that time. Lowland
highs will range from the upper 90`s to 107. Mountain readings
will range from the high 70s to middle 80s. The pattern of
northwest flow aloft, will ensure very good to excellent vent
rates areawide today through early next week. Min RH will range
from the middle teens to single digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                106  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca          104  74 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             104  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo             104  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              84  55  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences  104  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             97  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                 103  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg              102  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     105  77 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              107  70 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           108  76 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda             101  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 107  74 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           105  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ         105  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range          105  69 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  106  68 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               104  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande              105  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 92  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               93  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                90  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 96  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro              101  64  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport              104  67 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            95  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  99  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                  102  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              99  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 99  66  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                 102  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                103  69  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells         101  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              96  67  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ411.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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