Area Forecast Discussion
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036
FXUS64 KEPZ 172140
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
340 PM MDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see another warm day on Tuesday, but moisture, clouds and
rain chances will return to the area, starting Tuesday night and
lasting through Thursday night. Some storms on Wednesday night and
Thursday may produce very heavy rainfall. For next weekend we will
see a slight chance for rain with temperatures near seasonal
averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently our monsoon nemesis, the upper level ridge, sits
straddled across Arizona and New Mexico, continuing to limit our
moisture and thunderstorm activity, but the ridge`s days of
tormenting us are coming to an end (for now). On Tuesday the upper
level ridge will begin to move to our east, now that what is left
of Florence will be getting out of the way. As the upper level
ridge moves east, it will begin to allow moisture to work up from
the south. We will gradually see our precipitable water (PW) values
creep up. This morning`s balloon run had a PW just a little above
1 inch, but moisture will begin to increase. By Wednesday the
whole area will see a chance for rain and PW values will increase
to 1.4 to 1.5. All that moisture in the air will help fuel
thunderstorms which will be efficient at producing a lot of rain
very quickly. On Thursday both the GFS and the ECMWF try and
bring a loosely organized tropical remnant up across New Mexico.
This system probably won`t be strong enough to get well organized,
but the weak circulation, may be enough to enhance our heavy rain
potential on Thursday (along with record or near record PW). We
may need a flash flood watch for Thursday if the GFS, ECMWF and
NAM models stick to their current forecasts. In addition to the
weak tropical circulation, a decent upper level trough will be
moving across Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday. So right now
late Wednesday into Thursday night will have several ingredients
coming together that could lead to some heavy rain. Stay tuned.

On Friday as the upper level trough sweeps most, but not all of
the moisture to our east,we will see our rain chances lower, but
not drop out of the forecast for Friday and Saturday. In addition
the upper level high looks to build across all of the southern
part of the U.S. and that will further reduce our rain chances as
we head into Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday we will continue to see our high temperatures around 5
degrees above average, but then as the moisture and clouds move
in we will see highs near average on Wednesday and maybe 5 to 10
degrees below average on Thursday. Then as the moisture moves out
we will see our temperatures return to near average for Friday
and into the weekend. I wish I could say that tomorrow (Tuesday)
will be our last 90 degree day for the season for El Paso, but
with the upper ridge returning by the end of the week, into the
weekend, we will again see temperatures in the lowlands near 90
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period as relatively dry
weather continues but changes on the way by the end of the fcst pd.
Winds generally ENE/SE at 8-12 kts. Skies SKC- FEW-SCT050-070 SCT080-
120. SCT-BKN200 Isold BKN060CB -TSRA with tops to 250 over area
mountains (Gila Wilderness and Sacramentos) and est Otero and
Hudspeth counties until 06Z Monday and becoming more widespread over
entire CWA after 18Z Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will again suppress most thunderstorm activity
today, with only isolated showers over the Sacramento Mountains and
Gila Region this afternoon. Lowland areas will stay dry. Near-normal
temperatures along with sufficient low level moisture will keep min
RH values above critical thresholds. The weather pattern changes on
Wednesday as the upper high shifts east and southerly flow at the
surface will advect deep moisture back into the area. Area-wide rain
chances return Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure slowly tries to
reestablish into next weekend, which will reduce rain chances but
not completely eliminate them. Afternoon winds will generally be in
the 10-15 mph range through the forecast period with fair to good
afternoon ventilation rates.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  91  71  86 /   0  10  30  50
Sierra Blanca           63  86  64  83 /  20  20  30  40
Las Cruces              66  90  67  85 /   0  10  30  60
Alamogordo              65  88  66  84 /   0  10  30  50
Cloudcroft              47  69  48  66 /  10  30  50  70
Truth or Consequences   66  89  66  83 /   0  20  20  40
Silver City             59  86  61  80 /  10  30  40  60
Deming                  65  90  66  84 /   0  10  30  40
Lordsburg               66  90  66  82 /   0  10  30  40
West El Paso Metro      70  90  70  85 /   0  10  30  60
Dell City               65  91  66  87 /  10  20  30  40
Fort Hancock            68  92  68  87 /  20  20  30  40
Loma Linda              62  87  65  82 /   0  20  30  50
Fabens                  67  92  68  86 /   0  10  30  50
Santa Teresa            66  90  68  85 /   0  10  30  60
White Sands HQ          67  90  67  85 /   0  10  30  50
Jornada Range           66  90  67  84 /   0  10  30  50
Hatch                   66  91  67  85 /   0  10  30  50
Columbus                67  90  68  85 /   0  10  30  40
Orogrande               67  90  68  86 /   0  10  30  50
Mayhill                 51  80  53  76 /  20  30  50  70
Mescalero               52  81  54  76 /  10  30  40  70
Timberon                51  79  53  75 /  20  30  50  60
Winston                 53  86  56  79 /  10  30  40  60
Hillsboro               60  88  63  82 /  10  20  40  50
Spaceport               65  89  65  83 /   0  10  30  50
Lake Roberts            52  86  54  79 /  10  30  40  70
Hurley                  59  87  61  80 /  10  10  40  50
Cliff                   50  89  52  82 /  10  30  40  50
Mule Creek              49  89  53  80 /   0  30  30  50
Faywood                 60  87  63  81 /  10  30  40  60
Animas                  66  91  66  81 /   0  10  30  40
Hachita                 64  90  66  83 /   0  10  30  40
Antelope Wells          63  88  64  79 /   0  10  30  50
Cloverdale              60  86  62  75 /   0  20  30  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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