Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202102
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
202 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy westerly winds will bring warmer mostly dry weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas on Thursday. A strong low
pressure system with a cold front will move slowly across the
southwestern United States Thursday through Friday. The storm will
drop heavy snow over the Gila Wilderness region with widespread
rain and mountain snows elsewhere mainly Thursday night through
Friday. Westerly winds will produce warmer dry weather this coming
weekend and most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Major winter storm event expected especially for the Gila
Wilderness region.

For Thursday it will be warmer and mostly dry across most of
southern New Mexico and west Texas due to west to southwest
winds. But currently this afternoon a broad trough covers the
United States west of the Rockies with a 150 kt upper jet streak
west of the trough axis along the west coast. This feature will
cause trough to deepen and amplify with large closed low forming
over southern California by Thursday afternoon. The low will
initially drift slowly east into central Arizona by Friday morning
with trough axis only reaching the western New Mexico border by
early Friday evening. Ahead of the trough a rather strong Pacific
cold front will push slowly into western New Mexico Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Slow approach of trough will cause an increasing southerly wind
component into New Mexico with 50 kt mid level south to southwest
winds transporting rather abundant Gulf of California moisture
into the CWA. Thus precipitable water may rise to near a half
inch over southwestern New Mexico by Friday. Deep lifting will
also increase as front drifts into New Mexico beneath increasing
differential PVA. Finally lifting will be enhanced via upslope
winds over the Gila Wilderness region. These factors will
contribute to producing prolonged occasionally heavy precipitation
across much of western New Mexico, especially over the mountain
areas. Dynamic cooling from vertical motion aloft will also
combine with low level cold air advection behind the front to
cause very heavy snowfalls for locations above 6000 feet.
Accordingly a Winter Storm Watch has been issued from Thursday
evening through Friday evening. Another area which needs to
monitored for possible warnings is the New Mexico bootheel where
over 4 inches of snow may occur across mountain locations above
5000 feet mainly on Friday.

As storm moves across New Mexico the precipitation should spread
across the remainder of the CWA Friday and Friday night. Despite
cooling behind the front temperatures should stay warm enough for
most of the precip to be rain below 6000 feet while up to 4 inches
of snow may fall over the Sacramento Mountains. Trough weakens
into an open wave by Friday afternoon causing it to accelerate
eastwards Friday evening. Thus expect most of the rain/snow to
end by midnight Saturday as very cool but dry air flows into the
region.

Saturday and beyond...deep westerly winds will bring dry weather
and warming temperatures after a chilly start Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN200-250 to start period but clouds will
be on the increase overnight.  Expect FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN150-200
by 12Z and out west becoming SCT-BKN040-060 BKN080-100 with isolated
to scattered -SHRA BKN040-050 BLO 5.5kft and 1-3SM BKN020-030 in the
Gila region above 5.5kft. Winds mainly southeast to southwest at 5-
15KTS to start period and becoming southwest areawide by morning and
increasing to 10-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another strong storm system will be crossing the region over the
next couple of days bringing with it significant snow to the Gila
region with lighter snow over the Sacs and some light rain and snow
similar to last event over the lowlands.  Over a foot of snow
possible above 6000 feet in the Gila with just a few inches in the
Sacs.  Winds will become an issue starting tomorrow with 15 to 30
mph winds likely through Friday and slightly decreasing for
Saturday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend,
but precipitation chances end as system exits Friday evening and dry
conditions likely through early next week.

Temperatures will be warming to near or slightly above normal next
week as series of deep troughs ends and a more zonal flow sets up.
Winds don`t look to be a major concern, but relative humidities look
to be falling back into the teens early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 31  60  39  59 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           29  60  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              27  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  30
Alamogordo              27  57  37  55 /   0   0   0  40
Cloudcroft              17  36  25  34 /   0   0   0  40
Truth or Consequences   24  52  37  48 /   0   0  30  50
Silver City             23  44  34  37 /   0  50  70  80
Deming                  22  55  35  50 /   0  10  20  40
Lordsburg               23  50  36  46 /   0  30  50  80
West El Paso Metro      32  59  39  57 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               25  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            31  67  38  66 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              29  55  36  56 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  30  63  38  63 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            27  57  36  57 /   0   0   0  30
White Sands HQ          31  57  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
Jornada Range           24  55  34  53 /   0   0   0  30
Hatch                   24  55  37  51 /   0   0   0  40
Columbus                27  57  38  54 /   0  10  20  40
Orogrande               25  57  34  57 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 22  49  32  47 /   0   0   0  40
Mescalero               20  44  30  43 /   0   0   0  40
Timberon                18  44  28  44 /   0   0   0  40
Winston                 14  44  29  39 /   0  20  50  80
Hillsboro               22  51  34  44 /   0  20  50  70
Spaceport               22  53  34  50 /   0   0  10  40
Lake Roberts            16  44  28  36 /   0  60  70  80
Hurley                  20  47  33  40 /   0  30  60  80
Cliff                   17  49  33  41 /   0  60  70  80
Mule Creek              22  44  33  36 /   0  60  70  80
Faywood                 23  47  34  42 /   0  20  60  70
Animas                  24  52  38  47 /   0  30  30  80
Hachita                 20  53  35  50 /   0  20  30  60
Antelope Wells          24  54  36  50 /   0  20  30  60
Cloverdale              26  47  37  43 /   0  20  40  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for NMZ401>403-408.

TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz/30 Dennhardt



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.