Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230950
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
350 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Conditions will be quiet today, but will transition to active on
Sunday as a storm system begins to move in across the Borderland.
This storm system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the
mountains and rain to the lowlands. The winds will be breezy today
and windy on Sunday. A cold front will accompany this system,
which will push through our area on Sunday. Cooler temperatures
are expected behind this front through the middle of next week.
This active weather event will continue until Tuesday. Quiet
conditions will return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy, the winds at the surface
generally light, and the temperatures on the cool side. For
today, the ridge of high pressure that was over us yesterday will
begin to breakdown and shift to the east as a trough of low
pressure across the Pacific West nears our area. As this low draw
near our area, the winds will become breezy with the strongest
winds on the east slopes. The clouds will continue to role in, the
temperatures will be above the normal as the flow will be from
the southwest and with subside aloft. For tonight, conditions
will remain quiet for much of the area at least before midnight.
The winds will continue to be breezy and at times windy especially
across the east slopes as the center of a lee cyclone will be
east of Colorado. Surface troughing will extend all the way down
this area, which will allow for the winds to be breezy to windy.
For Sunday, the first wave moves in that will bring a mix of rain
and snow showers to the mountains and rain showers to the some
lowland areas mainly far east of the Rio Grande. The winds will
be strong with both a lee cyclone centered across eastern
Colorado and a Pacific cold front pushing through the area. Due
to this, both a Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning is in effect
for our area from 10 a.m until 7 p.m. Sunday. Also, with a strong
westerly flow, there could be areas of patchy blowing dust mainly
in the lowlands near the International Border.
For the rest of the period, the conditions will be unsettled
especially in the mountains through Tuesday evening. The winds
will be breezy on Monday as the pressure gradient will be closely
packed together. A second wave will move in during the day Monday
bringing additional snow to the mountains and rain to the
lowlands. A third wave of energy will move in on Tuesday
afternoon. The winds by then will be much lighter; however, the
winds could still be a bit breezy over the high terrains. The
temperatures post frontal will be below the normal with cooler air
intruding coupled with a decent amount of cloud coverage and rain
cooled air. When all is said and done, expect anywhere between 2
to 5 inches of snow in the Gila/Black Range mountains and between
1 to 2 inches of snow in the Sacramento Mountains. Rain showers in
the lowlands will be less than 0.20 inches. Conditions will
become settled by the middle of next week as a ridge of high
pressure reestablishes at least through Thursday before it breaks
down and move across the Central Plains as another storm system
moves in across the West. The temperatures under this ridge will
warm to above the normal with Thursday being the warmest day of
the next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies SCT-BKN
250. Winds generally variable and light through 15Z, then
favoring SW in the 12-15 kt range with gusts 17-25 kts. VSBY
generally unrestricted. Possibly some very localized BLDU aft 21Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Mostly dry air will be in place today near the surface. The 20ft
winds will be breezy and the temperatures above the normal.
Tonight recovery will be fair to excellent. The moisture will
increase as a storm system begin to move in. There will be a chance
for rain and snow in the mountains and rain showers in the
lowlands mainly along the Continental Divide. For Sunday, moisture
will continue to increase with showers continuing for the
aforementioned areas. The 20ft winds will be breezy to windy. A
cold front will move in during the day, which will cause the winds
to shift from the southwest to the west. Sunday overnight
recovery will be good to excellent. Any showers by then will be
far west of the Rio Grande. With that said, fire weather
conditions today will be elevated while on Sunday near critical.
For the rest of the period, conditions will be unsettled at least
through Tuesday before becoming settled on Wednesday.
The min RHs today will be below 16% in the lowlands and between
18 and 27% in the mountains. The min RHs on Sunday will increase
12 to 15% in the lowlands and 20 to 40% in the mountains. The
ventilation rates will be excellent this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 82 53 65 44 / 0 0 10 0
Sierra Blanca 77 49 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 80 48 62 38 / 0 0 10 0
Alamogordo 76 45 59 33 / 0 0 10 0
Cloudcroft 52 28 34 20 / 0 0 30 0
Truth or Consequences 74 46 57 35 / 0 0 10 0
Silver City 67 34 46 29 / 0 30 50 20
Deming 78 44 59 34 / 0 10 20 10
Lordsburg 76 39 55 33 / 0 40 50 40
West El Paso Metro 80 50 63 41 / 0 0 10 0
Dell City 80 48 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 83 50 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 73 45 57 36 / 0 0 10 0
Fabens 82 50 65 40 / 0 0 10 0
Santa Teresa 78 47 61 38 / 0 0 10 10
White Sands HQ 78 51 61 41 / 0 0 10 0
Jornada Range 76 45 59 34 / 0 0 10 0
Hatch 79 47 60 35 / 0 0 10 10
Columbus 79 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 20
Orogrande 76 46 59 36 / 0 0 10 0
Mayhill 64 37 48 27 / 0 0 20 0
Mescalero 63 34 46 25 / 0 0 40 0
Timberon 63 33 46 23 / 0 0 10 0
Winston 67 36 47 28 / 0 10 30 0
Hillsboro 73 40 53 31 / 0 10 20 10
Spaceport 74 43 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 67 31 44 24 / 0 40 70 20
Hurley 71 36 51 28 / 0 20 40 20
Cliff 73 38 52 31 / 0 50 60 20
Mule Creek 68 35 47 31 / 0 60 70 30
Faywood 71 38 51 30 / 0 10 30 10
Animas 76 42 57 33 / 0 20 30 40
Hachita 76 42 58 34 / 0 10 20 30
Antelope Wells 76 41 57 34 / 0 10 20 40
Cloverdale 69 37 51 32 / 0 30 30 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ419>422.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-423-424.
NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ408>410-
414>417-426-427.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-411-428-
429.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...36-Texeira