Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 230950
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
350 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Conditions will be quiet today, but will transition to active on
Sunday as a storm system begins to move in across the Borderland.
This storm system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the
mountains and rain to the lowlands. The winds will be breezy today
and windy on Sunday. A cold front will accompany this system,
which will push through our area on Sunday. Cooler temperatures
are expected behind this front through the middle of next week.
This active weather event will continue until Tuesday. Quiet
conditions will return by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy, the winds at the surface
generally light, and the temperatures on the cool side. For
today, the ridge of high pressure that was over us yesterday will
begin to breakdown and shift to the east as a trough of low
pressure across the Pacific West nears our area. As this low draw
near our area, the winds will become breezy with the strongest
winds on the east slopes. The clouds will continue to role in, the
temperatures will be above the normal as the flow will be from
the southwest and with subside aloft. For tonight, conditions
will remain quiet for much of the area at least before midnight.
The winds will continue to be breezy and at times windy especially
across the east slopes as the center of a lee cyclone will be
east of Colorado. Surface troughing will extend all the way down
this area, which will allow for the winds to be breezy to windy.
For Sunday, the first wave moves in that will bring a mix of rain
and snow showers to the mountains and rain showers to the some
lowland areas mainly far east of the Rio Grande. The winds will
be strong with both a lee cyclone centered across eastern
Colorado and a Pacific cold front pushing through the area. Due
to this, both a Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning is in effect
for our area from 10 a.m until 7 p.m. Sunday. Also, with a strong
westerly flow, there could be areas of patchy blowing dust mainly
in the lowlands near the International Border.

For the rest of the period, the conditions will be unsettled
especially in the mountains through Tuesday evening. The winds
will be breezy on Monday as the pressure gradient will be closely
packed together. A second wave will move in during the day Monday
bringing additional snow to the mountains and rain to the
lowlands. A third wave of energy will move in on Tuesday
afternoon. The winds by then will be much lighter; however, the
winds could still be a bit breezy over the high terrains. The
temperatures post frontal will be below the normal with cooler air
intruding coupled with a decent amount of cloud coverage and rain
cooled air. When all is said and done, expect anywhere between 2
to 5 inches of snow in the Gila/Black Range mountains and between
1 to 2 inches of snow in the Sacramento Mountains. Rain showers in
the lowlands will be less than 0.20 inches. Conditions will
become settled by the middle of next week as a ridge of high
pressure reestablishes at least through Thursday before it breaks
down and move across the Central Plains as another storm system
moves in across the West. The temperatures under this ridge will
warm to above the normal with Thursday being the warmest day of
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies SCT-BKN
250. Winds generally variable and light through 15Z, then
favoring SW in the 12-15 kt range with gusts 17-25 kts. VSBY
generally unrestricted. Possibly some very localized BLDU aft 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mostly dry air will be in place today near the surface. The 20ft
winds will be breezy and the temperatures above the normal.
Tonight recovery will be fair to excellent. The moisture will
increase as a storm system begin to move in. There will be a chance
for rain and snow in the mountains and rain showers in the
lowlands mainly along the Continental Divide. For Sunday, moisture
will continue to increase with showers continuing for the
aforementioned areas. The 20ft winds will be breezy to windy. A
cold front will move in during the day, which will cause the winds
to shift from the southwest to the west. Sunday overnight
recovery will be good to excellent. Any showers by then will be
far west of the Rio Grande. With that said, fire weather
conditions today will be elevated while on Sunday near critical.
For the rest of the period, conditions will be unsettled at least
through Tuesday before becoming settled on Wednesday.

The min RHs today will be below 16% in the lowlands and between
18 and 27% in the mountains. The min RHs on Sunday will increase
12 to 15% in the lowlands and 20 to 40% in the mountains. The
ventilation rates will be excellent this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82  53  65  44 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            77  49  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               80  48  62  38 /   0   0  10   0
Alamogordo               76  45  59  33 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               52  28  34  20 /   0   0  30   0
Truth or Consequences    74  46  57  35 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              67  34  46  29 /   0  30  50  20
Deming                   78  44  59  34 /   0  10  20  10
Lordsburg                76  39  55  33 /   0  40  50  40
West El Paso Metro       80  50  63  41 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                80  48  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             83  50  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               73  45  57  36 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   82  50  65  40 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             78  47  61  38 /   0   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           78  51  61  41 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range            76  45  59  34 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                    79  47  60  35 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 79  47  60  38 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                76  46  59  36 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  64  37  48  27 /   0   0  20   0
Mescalero                63  34  46  25 /   0   0  40   0
Timberon                 63  33  46  23 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  67  36  47  28 /   0  10  30   0
Hillsboro                73  40  53  31 /   0  10  20  10
Spaceport                74  43  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  31  44  24 /   0  40  70  20
Hurley                   71  36  51  28 /   0  20  40  20
Cliff                    73  38  52  31 /   0  50  60  20
Mule Creek               68  35  47  31 /   0  60  70  30
Faywood                  71  38  51  30 /   0  10  30  10
Animas                   76  42  57  33 /   0  20  30  40
Hachita                  76  42  58  34 /   0  10  20  30
Antelope Wells           76  41  57  34 /   0  10  20  40
Cloverdale               69  37  51  32 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ419>422.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-423-424.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ408>410-
     414>417-426-427.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-411-428-
     429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira


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