Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222333
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
533 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A series of weather systems will bring a period of active weather
will occur across the region for the next several days. Warm
temperatures with breezy southerly winds will occur Saturday. Strong
winds with patchy blowing dust will occur over the area on Sunday
along with a few light showers and mountain showers. Subsequent
weather systems will continue the active pattern with cooler
temperatures and intermittent light showers on Monday and
Tuesday. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will occur for the
remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The mild weather pattern that the local area has been enjoying
will soon give way to a more active weather pattern as the high
pressure ridge over the state shifts more to the east. This will
allow a large complex weather system on the west coast to move
into the western part of the country on Saturday and into the
central Rockies on Sunday. Secondary weather systems will drop
down the back side of the larger system to keep the weather
pattern active Monday and Tuesday, with the entire system moving
off to east on Wednesday.

Locally, the weather tonight will be quite mild with light winds
and increasing high cloudiness into the morning hours of Saturday.
Warm temperatures, several degrees above normal will occur
Saturday afternoon with lower 80s expected for desert border
areas. As the weather system approaches from the west Saturday
afternoon, winds will become more southwesterly and increase in
speed into the breezy category by late afternoon and early
evening.

By Sunday morning the core of the main weather system will move
into the four corners region with a belt of stronger winds aloft
along the southwest of the system straddling southern New Mexico
and far west Texas. At the same time a deep surface low will form
in eastern Colorado that will tighten the surface pressure
gradient across the state. These two features will combine to
generate strong southwest to west winds across the area on
Sunday. Ensemble model data indicates a 70 percent chance or
greater that much of the area will see wind gusts in excess of 60
mph on Sunday. The winds will be stronger along mountain
ridgelines and along the east slopes. Overall, winds will be
stronger for areas east of the Rio Grande with gradually lower but
still strong winds west of the Rio Grande. Blowing dust will be an
added impact to the lowland. A high wind warning and a high wind
advisory will be in effect for much of the area on Sunday.

For Monday and Tuesday, active weather will continue as the next
two weather systems quickly move through the region. Winds will
not be as strong with these systems but rain chances will be
slightly better for the area. Much cooler temperatures will occur
both days with lowland deserts in the lower 60s for afternoon
temperatures. Limited moisture availability will keep rain amounts
generally light with less than tenth of inch expected over the 2
day period. Mountain snow showers will be possible above 6000 feet
but will also be light. Ensemble model data indicates low
probability of snow accumulations greater than an inch for
southern Gila region with measurable snow unlikely in the
Sacramento mountains.

In the extended forecast period for Wednesday through next Friday,
dry conditions will return to the region with building high
pressure on Wednesday for clear skies and lighter winds. The flow
pattern aloft will become a more westerly zonal type flow for
Thursday and Friday for warmer temperatures with breezy
conditions in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies SKC-
SCT250...bcmg SCT-BKN 250 after 18Z. Winds generally variable and
light through 15Z...then favoring SW in the 12-15kt range with
gusts 17-25kts. VSBY generally unrestricted. Possibly some very
localized BLDU aft 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Mild conditions and light winds will continue this afternoon
through Saturday morning. Low humidity at around 10 percent and
breezy winds will occur Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds will
remain just below critical thresholds with elevated fire
conditions expected. The first in a series of weather systems will
bring very strong southwest to west winds which will set up
elevated fire conditions on Sunday. However humidity values are
expected to rise with scattered light showers in the area to keep
the region below critical fire thresholds. The strongest wind
gusts are expected along the ridgelines and east slopes with
higher mountains experiencing wind gusts above 70 mph.

For the first half of next week active weather will continue with
2 more weather systems quickly moving through the state. A mix of
light rain showers and high elevation snow showers will be
possible Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures during the that time
period will be below normal with higher humidity values and lower
wind speeds than Sunday. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures
will return the region on Wednesday and persist through the
remainder of the week. Breezy conditions will be possible Thursday
afternoon with lower winds on next Friday. Long range outlook has
another weather system bringing strong winds next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  54  83  55  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            47  78  50  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  81  49  63 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               47  77  46  60 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               35  53  30  36 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences    47  75  47  58 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              45  68  36  46 /   0   0  10  50
Deming                   46  80  45  59 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg                45  77  42  57 /   0   0  20  40
West El Paso Metro       53  81  52  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                42  81  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             45  85  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               48  75  47  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   49  83  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             48  79  49  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           53  79  52  62 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            46  78  47  59 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    45  80  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 50  80  48  61 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                45  78  48  61 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  37  66  38  49 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                38  65  36  46 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                 37  65  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  41  68  36  48 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro                45  73  41  54 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport                45  75  44  57 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             40  68  32  45 /   0   0  20  60
Hurley                   43  73  36  51 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                    45  75  39  53 /   0   0  20  50
Mule Creek               45  69  36  47 /   0   0  20  60
Faywood                  46  72  39  51 /   0   0   0  30
Animas                   45  78  43  58 /   0   0   0  30
Hachita                  46  78  44  59 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells           47  77  42  58 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale               48  71  39  51 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ419>422.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-423-424.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ408>410-
     414>417-426-427.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-411-428-
     429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird


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